Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[deltadog03]

wxman...I respectfully dissagree with you. You can see the low level turning in the S or SW part of the blob. Look at the shortwave IR channel 2 loop....can see low level clouds rotating down there.

[mtm4319]

Ok, I think I got a better fix on the center after running a McIDAS loop. It's over western Haiti near 18.1 or 18.2N and 74W. That's right on the NHC track or maybe 0.1 degree to the north of the track:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto45.gif

You think it's already made landfall on Haiti's coast?

Hmm... I guess recon will find out soon.

[Dean4Storms]

Ok, I think I got a better fix on the center after running a McIDAS loop. It's over western Haiti near 18.1 or 18.2N and 74W. That's right on the NHC track or maybe 0.1 degree to the north of the track:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto45.gif

That would make sense with the loss of convection we are now see as well. Good Job.

[LAwxrgal]

Ok, I think I got a better fix on the center after running a McIDAS loop. It's over western Haiti near 18.1 or 18.2N and 74W. That's right on the NHC track or maybe 0.1 degree to the north of the track:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto45.gif

Thanks wxman. So you're saying this is making landfall right now on the western tip of Haiti? Unreal the changes that have taken place overnight.

[drezee]

Another McIDAS image showing the center a bit better:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto44.gif

The low level curvature axis looks to be passing 74W right now. I see what you are talking about. I have access to the same images, but to me it seems like the LLC should be on in line with 74W.

Look at the curvature of the low clouds on the S side.

Ok, I think I got a better fix on the center after running a McIDAS loop. It's over western Haiti near 18.1 or 18.2N and 74W. That's right on the NHC track or maybe 0.1 degree to the north of the track:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto45.gif

I see that we agree on 74W now.

[sponger]

What a amazing shift in track from yesterday. Does any one know when the gulfstream jet will be feeding updated info into the models?

[MiamiensisWx]

Can't read it... :-\

Sorry... this should be better for you and Scott (skysummit)...



Do you and Scott (skysummit) and others see it better now?

[brunota2003]

What a amazing shift in track from yesterday. Does any one know when the gulfstream jet will be feeding updated info into the models?

I believe they fly tonight...so by tomorrow morning the tracks should have the info...

[wxman57]

wxman...I respectfully dissagree with you. You can see the low level turning in the S or SW part of the blob. Look at the shortwave IR channel 2 loop....can see low level clouds rotating down there.

How are you seeing the low-level clouds on IR imagery? I have 1 kilometer visible loops running and don't see any low level turning southwest of the convective complex.

[tailgater]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Good site to monitor the progress of the shortwave. Looks like it is holding steady but not making any progress.

thanks

[Hurricaneman]

wxman...I respectfully dissagree with you. You can see the low level turning in the S or SW part of the blob. Look at the shortwave IR channel 2 loop....can see low level clouds rotating down there.

How are you seeing the low-level clouds on IR imagery? I have 1 kilometer visible loops running and don't see any low level turning southwest of the convective complex.

sorry deltadog03, but it also looks to me it has made landfall on the western edge of Haiti

[Scorpion]

Anyone see the 00z WRF? It takes Ernesto towards AL or the Panhandle and shows a 955 mb hurricane so far.

[sponger]

What a amazing shift in track from yesterday. Does any one know when the gulfstream jet will be feeding updated info into the models?

I believe they fly tonight...so by tomorrow morning the tracks should have the info...

Thanks. Thats going to be well within the 3 day forcast for South and sw Florida. I think the nhc has our attention!

[deltadog03]

you can see low level clouds on an IR image....

[gatorcane]

the ridge is weaker than the models had originally predicted.......

[Bgator]

On what i see as the current motion, it would skim the SW hait and only lightly tough the east coast of cuba, that small area on the east, leaving it open near the bahamas....And for the way it looks now, every morning we have this conversation how bad it looks, than it blows up at night!

[gatorcane]

The reason why I originally called a FL peninsula hit was because:

1) storm was jogging north
2) The ridge was weaker than I thought the models were making it.

It's still far out and it could miss but I hope Tampa Bay is spared....

[Kennethb]

While here in LA, we are somewhat relieved with the recent motion and forecast with Earn, I think it is a little early to write him off here. We first must see how he traverses Cuba, Haiti, etc. Once off of land, then he will have a better idea of where he wants to go.

It is a tad early to expect a significant trough to drop down, though it can happen. Looking at the WV loop, the ridge looks good. Hopefully the models are reading the western NA upper weather features well and can see the trough digging down. Ridges can be stubborn. Remember Elena in 1985, a classic looping, backing storm.

[margaritabeach]

you can see low level clouds on an IR image....

hmmmmm pretty sure u cannot. u need visable

[wxman57]

I think I see what model data the NHC are using. Their track is very close to the CONU and CGUN (two consensus models). Looks good to me:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto46.gif