Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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superfly

#421 Postby superfly » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:44 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Even though the NHC is being conservative, 115 mph winds isn't right. I think this is close to being a Cat-4. Why can't they just send another recon? :grr:


What info do you have to indicate that 115 mph isn't right? Dvorak estimates are 102kts.
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Scorpion

#422 Postby Scorpion » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:45 pm

WindRunner wrote:Well, that's a conservative 100kts at 11pm . . . yay. Also continued with the westward shift of the track . . . Bermuda could see some TS winds from this one - maybe.


Are you serious? Bermuda looks to get a direct hit at least, and probably be swiped from the west.
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superfly

#423 Postby superfly » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:45 pm

Blown_away wrote:I'm confused, the trough there saying may leave Helene behind, is that the same trough that everybody was saying would absolutely, no doubt about it, kick her out to sea. If that trough leaves her behind what does that mean for the EC?


The next trough will pick it up. It's a matter of when, not if. Bermuda and/or NE Canada could be seeing another hit if this happens though.
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Josephine96

#424 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:46 pm

Ok folks.. stupid question.. Why do I keep hearing you guys say "Watch out Bermuda" if the models are even apparently undecided on where this baby's gonna go..
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HurricaneHunter914
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#425 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:46 pm

It's just that Helene looks so good tonight and I admit, I have never seen a 115 mph Cat-3 look so good. IMO, she looks a little stronger.
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#426 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:47 pm

Scorpion wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Well, that's a conservative 100kts at 11pm . . . yay. Also continued with the westward shift of the track . . . Bermuda could see some TS winds from this one - maybe.


Are you serious? Bermuda looks to get a direct hit at least, and probably be swiped from the west.


Sorry, I was still looking at the cached 5pm track. Definately a good threat to Hamilton now.
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Evil Jeremy
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#427 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:48 pm

wow. so, who still thinks that this will be a fish?
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#428 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:[...] AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE WESTWARD CLUSTER OF GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS.


At the 11 PM Discussion,they went with the models that are more west and abandoned GFDL,EURO,CMC.


I wouldn't say NHC abandoned them... they're just leaning away from them, but still considering them somewhat. If they were fully going with GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS, they'd have Helene at 27N 65W in 5-6 days.
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superfly

#429 Postby superfly » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:50 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:It's just that Helene looks so good tonight and I admit, I have never seen a 115 mph Cat-3 look so good. IMO, she looks a little stronger.


Short memory?

Image
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terstorm1012
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#430 Postby terstorm1012 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:53 pm

blown_away, I think that means she'll come closer before the second trough picks her up and takes her out, means bad news for Bermuda and possibly Atlantic Canada (I think.)
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Josephine96

#431 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:53 pm

gorgeous eye :wink:
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Cookiely
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#432 Postby Cookiely » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:58 pm

What happens to Helene if the second trough doesn't influence her?
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superfly

#433 Postby superfly » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:02 pm

Cookiely wrote:What happens to Helene if the second trough doesn't influence her?


Then EC would have a problem.
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#434 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:09 pm

Cookiely wrote:What happens to Helene if the second trough doesn't influence her?


Then florida is in for it.....again.
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#435 Postby Praxus » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:10 pm

If you draw out the current track, you pretty much end up in manhattan - not that I think its going to keep going that way ! or it'd better not...
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#436 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:14 pm

I'm starting to think this is Isabel 2.0. Also I think it could very well reach Category 5 now. (I personally set it at 110kt and peak it at 135kt)
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#437 Postby fci » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:
At the 11 PM Discussion,they went with the models that are more west and abandoned GFDL,EURO,CMC.


They show a generally W track from Monday through Tuesday, a WNW turn through Wed 8 PM and a sharp turn to the NW for the following 24 hours all at a pretty slow speed.

I don't see that in the discussion or am I missing another trough that is supposed to pick her up?
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#438 Postby Recurve » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:16 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Cookiely wrote:What happens to Helene if the second trough doesn't influence her?


Then florida is in for it.....again.


Getting a little ahead of ourselves, aren't we? When you say if this happens...then Florida will get hit, IMO you should use the disclaimer. You're relatively new around here, we should all be careful about making certain-sounding pronouncements, especially in reponse to questions from those who may not know your record/experience/age.
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#439 Postby fci » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:17 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Even though the NHC is being conservative, 115 mph winds isn't right. I think this is close to being a Cat-4. Why can't they just send another recon? :grr:


Why?
What is the difference when, at this time; it is no threat to any land??
Just to satisfy curiousity???
Last edited by fci on Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#440 Postby skufful » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:19 pm

Recurve wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
Cookiely wrote:What happens to Helene if the second trough doesn't influence her?


Then florida is in for it.....again.


Getting a little ahead of ourselves, aren't we? When you say if this happens...then Florida will get hit, IMO you should use the disclaimer. You're relatively new around here, we should all be careful about making certain-sounding pronouncements, especially in reponse to questions from those who may not know your record/experience/age.


Absurd, that's no forecast, needs no disclaimer. Just like all the pro-mets have constantly said "No EC threat." There's been no disclaimer there.
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