Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[HURAKAN]

We already had Chantal. :

[weatherguru18]

The system is going to have to slow WAY down. It's cutting it's own throat.

[Ivanhater]

Convection will be on the decrease, and you will see that its far from Hurricane Dean at the moment.

I think most of us know it is nowhere close to dean...and convection will likely decrease..but the lapse time between pulses is closing...

[SouthFloridawx]

Instead of focusing so much on how much red shows up in the IR shots look at the organization on the visibles, etc. It's nothing more than a disorganized open wave that blew-up some convection overnight. Until either 1) the convection can persist or 2) a LLC can form - it's nothing to get overly concerned about, esp. with all that shear in front of it.

Sorry for ranting, but I'm just now catching up and I've had to scroll through a dozen pages of calling this a TD or Dean and saying stuff like "if this isn't upgraded the equipment is faulty" at whatnot. It's just getting to the point where one looking for information has to scroll through 5 pages of chat to find one pertinent post.

I think the shear directly in front of it is just outflow from the thunderstorms.

The Upper Low in front of the system, is weakening and moving westward... Evidence is shown here on WV imagery.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

[bvigal]

... Sorry for ranting, but I'm just now catching up and I've had to scroll through a dozen pages of calling this a TD or Dean and saying stuff like "if this isn't upgraded the equipment is faulty" and whatnot. It's just getting to the point where one looking for information has to scroll through 5 pages of chat to find one pertinent post.

jschlitz, don't apologize, I feel your pain. I just spent over 90 minutes trying to get an earnest and situational question addressed, and every time I did a post, it was already on an 'old' page, which few seem to read, not that I blame them. I get paid only when I work and produce results, and not when I'm in a forum for my own enjoyment. (i.e. I can't afford this.)

[HURAKAN]

Anyone thinking on Thread #6.

[fci]

:uarrow: We already had Chantal. :

?????

[miamicanes177]

As expected, recon is still flying.

[SouthFloridawx]

:uarrow: We already had Chantal. :

?????

Yeah dude, we already had Chantal..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/CHANTAL_graphics.shtml

[MiamiensisWx]

Seems I keep posting on an "old" page - sorry! You guys are too fast for my DSL!OK, so I'll ask again - why did they at 9:30am this morning re-issue the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert? Remember this?

TCFA CRITERIA LIST
SFC GRADIENT
3 A Circulation is evident in the wind field
6 A Circulation has been evident for 24 hours
3 Westerly SFC/Gradient level wind of at least 5 kts, is south of the tropical disturbance and within five degrees of the center.
2 Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 20 kts
3 Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 25 kts
4 Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 30 kts YES
3 24 hour pressure decrease at nearby station (within five degrees) equals 2 MB
4 24 hour pressure decrease at nearby station (within five degrees) equals 3 MB YES
2 Estimated MSLP of disturbance is < 1014 MB
3 Estimated MSLP of disturbance is < 1012 MB
4 Estimated MSLP of disturbance is < 1010 MB YES
500 MB
2 There is evidence of at least a trough
3 There is evidence of a closed circulation
200 MB
2 Longwave or major shortwave trough to the northwest of the tropical disturbance
4 Evidence of an anticyclone over the center of the tropical disturbance. YES
3 200MB wind over cloud system center < 25 kts YES
SST
3 SST 26 C or higher YES
SATELLITE
DATA
3 The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 24 hours.
4 The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 48 hours
5 The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 72 hours YES
3 DVORAK classification of T 1.0 YES
Issue TCFA! DVORAK classification of T 1.5 from all agencies
MISCELLANEOUS
3 Cloud system center is north of 5 degrees latitude. YES
5 Tropical disturbance is within 72 hours of a DOD resource.
2 Cloud system center and satellite fix are consistent in location (within 2 degrees) YES
1 20 knot synoptic reports within convective cloud pattern of disturbance. YES
ADD UP THE POINTS. IF VALUE IS 35 OR GREATER, ISSUE THE TCFA!!!

Hi, bvigal! I'll try to answer this question. I think it is related to the output from specific guidance (i.e. satellite estimates). Additionally, I think it is the same TCFA that was initially posted by the agency for 99L. I have seen numerous times where a TCFA was reissued for various reasons. It could be model guidance, reconnaissance information, or other justification for the TCFA. I think it can be a test, too. It depends upon the T-numbers and Dvorak estimates. Essentially, TCFAs are based upon satellite estimates which are partially run by the TPC and the Navy. I hope I helped! Sadly, my response will be missed because of the posting influx...

[Air Force Met]

... Sorry for ranting, but I'm just now catching up and I've had to scroll through a dozen pages of calling this a TD or Dean and saying stuff like "if this isn't upgraded the equipment is faulty" and whatnot. It's just getting to the point where one looking for information has to scroll through 5 pages of chat to find one pertinent post.

jschlitz, don't apologize, I feel your pain. I just spent over 90 minutes trying to get an earnest and situational question addressed, and every time I did a post, it was already on an 'old' page, which few seem to read, not that I blame them. I get paid only when I work and produce results, and not when I'm in a forum for my own enjoyment. (i.e. I can't afford this.)

Hence the reason I don't comment a lot when it get like this. Too many people foget there is a chat room for this kind of back and forth. Any meaningful insight that may be given is 4 pages back in an hour and not worth the typing

[HURAKAN]

The float has been adjusted:

[chadtm80]

Also dont forget the Tropical Analasys Forum

[Damar91]

Exactly, AFM...Could you provide your opinion on what seems to be going on with 99L this morning? Seems like it's on it's way, but I really respect your professional opinion. Thoughts?

[jrod]

I am impressed with its apperance this morning. While the convection will likely not be as deep in a few hours, it could already be a TD/TS. It looks like a significant feature now. The recon will give us the data.

[Aquawind]

726
ABNT20 KNHC 021512
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 25 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cyclone1]

Tropical Cyclone? Not depression? Could they be sensing Dean?

[Ivanhater]

Just looking at wording..they say "cyclone" instead of depression...dont know if it means anything

[Buck]

Nothing new... I guess we'll just have to wait until recon.

[weatherguru18]

I have to go to work now... I won't get an update until 7pm tonight! Good luck 99L.