Invest 99L Thread #6

[HURAKAN]

Nostradamus on 99L:

The Gates of Hell were stormed by the Warrior of Death,
as a bullet a perturbed soul moved through the waters of the Carib,
but it was no match for the warrior, because it would have taken
99 Leagues to put up a fight.


Bible Code on 99L:

Caribbean, Speed of Light, Death, 99L, Anxiety, Invest

[Sjones]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION BEFORE THE WAVE REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO.

[Chacor]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVESTS IN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
FOR 03/1600Z AND 03/1800Z RESPECTIVELY BOTH
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1130Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[HURAKAN]

No surprises there!!!

[skysummit]

Well, maybe this first round of 90's were a practice, and the next round of 90's coming up will be the real deal

[canegrl04]

I'm tired of these pretenders.Bring on the invests that result in hurricanes! Dean and the rest are going to be hurricanes I think the next TD will form next week

[Stormcenter]

I hate to rain on anyones parade but "so far" this season is looking more and
more like 2006. I still think we may squeeze out 1 or 2 big ones (hopefully fish storms) but not much more than some TS and minimal hurricanes to reach 13 total. Just my 2 cents opinion as of August 3rd 2007.

[stormy70]

It doesn't look impressive today. Maybe things will get kicking later. I wonder if it survives what it will do when it reaches the Gulf.

[Hyperstorm]

Don't be so fast to compare this year to 2006. This is a Neutral-Weak La Nina year. This year keeps reminding me of 1998 and 1999 when we had La Nina conditions and everything exploded after mid-August.

Note: It seems like the tropical wave over the Caribbean is going to move north of Honduras and into Belize/Yucatan. If the trend continues, we could see it make landfall on Sunday, which will give it more time over water while the ULL weakens. We'll see what happens...

[Bane]

It doesn't look impressive today. Maybe things will get kicking later. I wonder if it survives what it will do when it reaches the Gulf

i don't think it will be going into the gulf.

[jasons2k]

I hate to rain on anyones parade but "so far" this season is looking more and
more like 2006. I still think we may squeeze out 1 or 2 big ones (hopefully fish storms) but not much more than some TS and minimal hurricanes to reach 13 total. Just my 2 cents opinion as of August 3rd 2007.

Patience......the date says it all....

[mgpetre]

Still haven't given up on 99 yet. I see a mid to low level circulation sneaking under that big comma of a blob in the visible floater imagery. Anyone else still see this having legs?

[skysummit]

Still haven't given up on 99 yet. I see a mid to low level circulation sneaking under that big comma of a blob in the visible floater imagery. Anyone else still see this having legs?

Can you please use a map to highlight the area you're talking about concerning the MLC? The only broad circulation I see is waaaay south of that "eyebrow" LOL

[tailgater]

I don't see anything yet but I think the area along 15N to 17N -73W to 77W has the best chance of spining up then getting it's tops blown off. Mid level shear not bad.

[mgpetre]

Still haven't given up on 99 yet. I see a mid to low level circulation sneaking under that big comma of a blob in the visible floater imagery. Anyone else still see this having legs?

Can you please use a map to highlight the area you're talking about concerning the MLC? The only broad circulation I see is waaaay south of that "eyebrow" LOL

Looks like I should have paid better attention to the time stamps on the loop images for the floater. It was something that was happening overnight. My total bad on that one.

[Stormcenter]

Don't be so fast to compare this year to 2006. This is a Neutral-Weak La Nina year. This year keeps reminding me of 1998 and 1999 when we had La Nina conditions and everything exploded after mid-August.

Note: It seems like the tropical wave over the Caribbean is going to move north of Honduras and into Belize/Yucatan. If the trend continues, we could see it make landfall on Sunday, which will give it more time over water while the ULL weakens. We'll see what happens...

Well I hope you're wrong. We just don't need anything major anywhere along the Gulf coast.

[canegrl04]

I hate to rain on anyones parade but "so far" this season is looking more and
more like 2006. I still think we may squeeze out 1 or 2 big ones (hopefully fish storms) but not much more than some TS and minimal hurricanes to reach 13 total. Just my 2 cents opinion as of August 3rd 2007.

See post titled "Ominous" .

[skysummit]

PURELY WILD THOUGHT BELOW. No bashing is necessary, but please comment...

I'm wondering if we might have to watch the northern end of the wave. Notice shear is helping enhance convection further and further north. If the convection is still there once in the Northwestern Caribbean, I wonder if there may be a possibility. There's currently a weak upper level disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean, but low wind shear, and pretty much no mid level shear to speak of. Low level flow dramatically decreases in the Yucatan Channel, but does bend northward into the Gulf.

This is just purely a thought and has absolutely no scientific backup.

Opinions?

[Sanibel]

Today the center is really whipping along near 15.2N-77W. You can see it on visible and the convection is sheared behind and above it to the NE. So there is a spiral there, just a very challenged one.

Important to note is the stationary trough over the Gulf has alligned more SW-NE today - meaning it could be plunging slightly making this wave more likely to recurve after Yucatan. The wave itself is sort of half there with red ir in the one surviving band. This is still a coin toss if it will form before Yucatan or even remain a wave over Yucatan. To me, at that forward speed, we are talking a guaranteed pass over Yucatan where it could dissipate even if it slows into recurve in reaction to the trough.

Similar to 2006, but I think it will break later on and one of these pulses will form. No doubt, at the very least, 99L is clearing out the caribbean for the next August system.

[skysummit]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL
AMERICA TODAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW REMAIN DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN