Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[HURAKAN]

Radar:

[Chacor]

Weakened further:

000
WTPA32 PHFO 151205
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
200 AM HST WED AUG 15 2007

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

AT 200 AM HST...1200Z....THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.3 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH POINT...THE SOUTH TIP OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM HST POSITION...17.2 N...157.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[HURAKAN]

WOW, she's going down and fast!!!

[Sanibel]

So the turn did happen - but west! Poor Hawaii is having a drought and needed the rain. Flossie broke down and weakened just as the heavy bands were reaching the Big Island. Only some uplift rain in spots. The heavy bands dried up and pulled away never making landfall. SST's and a dry SW shear in the upper.

Weird outcome. Just the opposite of an unexpected turn and hit.

[Chacor]

000
WTPA32 PHFO 151445
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST WED AUG 15 2007

...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.9 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...17.4 N...157.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Chacor]

000
WTPA42 PHFO 151445
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST WED AUG 15 2007

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.

FLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMING. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO EMERGE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT 1150 UTC...NOAA BUOY 51002...ONLY ABOUT 30 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE...WAS REPORTING NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 23 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1011.9 MB. FLOSSIE MUST HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY TO BE HAVING SO LITTLE IMPACT AT THE BUOY. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 1130 UTC WERE 3.0 AND 3.5. WE WILL GO WITH THE WEAKER ESTIMATE...45 KT...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE BUOY DATA AND THE STRONG SHEARING. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS STRONG SHEAR CONTINUING OVER FLOSSIE AS IT TRACKS WEST SO IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THE SYSTEM CAN RE-INTENSIFY. WE ARE FORECASTING FLOSSIE TO WEAKEN STEADILY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 96 HOURS.

WE HAD EXPECTED FLOSSIE TO MOVE FASTER AND ALONG A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS IT WEAKENED AND IT HAS DONE SO. ON THIS PACKAGE WE FORECAST THE WESTWARD TRACK TO CONTINUE TILL FLOSSIE DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 17.4N 157.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 159.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.9N 162.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 165.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.1N 167.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 19.9N 172.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 19/1200Z 20.4N 177.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/1200Z 20.6N 177.7E 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Epsilon_Fan]

Man, she got blasted apart... it's just a naked LLC now!

[HURAKAN]

Don't mess with Mr. Shear!!!

[Brent]

There's like nothing left! It died VERY fast. Poor Flossie.

[Sanibel]

Hilo: 2 inches

[Chacor]

This is NOT a 45 kt tropical storm. Come on.

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday TWC made such a big deal out of it. Jim Cantore war near South Point telling how people were preparing to face the storm and everything.

[Ptarmigan]

Wow, Flossie weakened big time from Category 2 to tropical storm.

[HURAKAN]

Trying to get back.

[Chacor]

Still generating enough convection NE of centre to keep going.

THE 403RD WING OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON IS NO LONGER FLYING MISSIONS INTO FLOSSIE AND IS RETURNING TO THE MAINLAND. MANY THANKS FROM CPHC FOR THEIR TIMELY AND CRITICAL DATA.

[RL3AO]

Still generating enough convection NE of centre to keep going.

THE 403RD WING OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON IS NO LONGER FLYING MISSIONS INTO FLOSSIE AND IS RETURNING TO THE MAINLAND. MANY THANKS FROM CPHC FOR THEIR TIMELY AND CRITICAL DATA.

They better get some sleep while they can.

What do conditions look like beyond Hawaii? I see the CPHC is bringing it down to a depression.

[Chacor]

Loads of shear. Not much chance.

[btangy]

Flossie pulled an anti-bomb. I find it very interesting how it was able to withstand in the increasing shear for such a long time and then all of a sudden, the entire inner core structure collapsed and the storm weakened from a hurricane to a weak TS in a matter of hours. Still shows we have a long way to go in understanding the intensity of these storms.

[Chacor]

It's probably dead and buried by the next advisory.

[Coredesat]

WTPA42 PHFO 160900
TCDCP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST WED AUG 15 2007
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM HFO AND
JTWC...AND 3.1 FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT).
MANUAL LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN LOCALLY RUN ADT GIVES
1.0. THE BURST OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHEARED OFF BY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY
REGENERATION OF THE CONVECTION. ALL THAT IS LEFT IS A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD SWIRL...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A
GENEROUS 30 KNOTS.

AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE MUCH WEAKENED FLOSSIE IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
FLOW...AND WILL NOT REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AN OCCASIONAL
CONVECTIVE FLAREUP MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT WILL BE
QUICKLY SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE 00Z FIX POSITION.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.1N 160.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.1N 162.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/0600Z 17.3N 164.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1800Z 17.7N 167.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
48HR VT 18/0600Z 18.2N 170.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
72HR VT 19/0600Z 19.3N 175.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
96HR VT 20/0600Z 20.1N 178.9E 10 KT...DISSIPATED
120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.4N 173.5E 10 KT...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWNING

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Well, I've seen 15 kt forecast positions before, but this is the first time I've seen 10 kt forecast before.