Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gboudx]

Rare Feb Typhoon Higos recurving, tell that to the models. Should reshuffle the Pacific.

Wasn't a recurving typhoon responsible for the November cold and only frozen precip(the dusting) DFW has seen?

Yep. Typhoon Nuri.

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, just took a walk. Felt like I was out in the California desert. Could feel the dryness. Yuck.

Please give me back my 40s-50s and rain. It is still February...I think(?).

Fair
82°F
28°C
Humidity22%
Wind SpeedVrbl 3 mph
Barometer30.07 in (1017.4 mb)
Dewpoint39°F (4°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index80°F (27°C)
Last Update on 9 Feb 2:51 pm CST

Current conditions at
Austin City, Austin Camp Mabry (KATT)
Lat: 30.32°N Lon: 97.77°W Elev: 656ft.

[wxman57]

Ok, I gotta ask this Wxman 57. I am not trying to stir the pot ( ok, maybe I am..LOL), but during the Winters, which model do you tilt toward the most, the Euro, GFS, Canadian....any...all of the above? You can say pass if you want..

I tend to look at the GFS & Euro both deterministic and ensembles, and occasionally the Canadian. I've found that neither the GFS nor the EC is typically correct, but that the correct forecast often lies somewhere in between the two.

[Yukon Cornelius]

:spam:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_40.png

Wouldn't that be nice...I wish it would pan out even though last i saw that were forecasting 70 that day. Let's hope not

[TheProfessor]

Gonna have to be honest, I did enjoy the 74 degrees temps when I walked out of school today, and driving down the highway with my windows down felt really good.

[Brent]

HAHA I remember remarking the other day about no freezes in the forecast... now there are two, and that's just through the weekend, not even including any mischief next week

[Brent]

Silly CMC...

[TexasF6]

I told y'all Joe B was onto something! No one believed but Porta & me! It's happening!!!!!!!! It's happening!!!!!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

:spam:

Silly CMC...

That seems about right...NoTx left high and dry.

[orangeblood]

I told y'all Joe B was onto something! No one believed but Porta & me! It's happening!!!!!!!! It's happening!!!!!

JB's batting average is pretty dismal this winter though, particularly with his snowfall forecast across the south....hopefully he's correct this time around

[horselattitudesfarm]

JB posted a tweet showing the CFS is showing brutal cold for the entire nation east of the rockies lol.

My family back in Texas is enjoying the warmth, but where i moved here in West North Carolina we're fixing to get pounded by cold

[Ralph's Weather]

Not seeing much to go on as far as Arctic air for our area over the next couple weeks though it does look cooler than we have been recently. I do not think the models have a clue on what will happen late this month with the opposing teles so they are showing zonal flow by default.

[orangeblood]

Euro Ensembles are getting a little more bullish on wintry precip in the Feb. 16-18th time frame for the southern plains...next period to watch

[Tireman4]

Euro Ensembles are getting a little more bullish on wintry precip in the Feb. 16-18th time frame for the southern plains...next period to watch

Yeah but it is ( wait for it... ) 8 days away...sorry...could not resist. I will say ( and I will drag it up from my Facebook if you all want proof) that Larry Cosgrove was saying the March would be interesting in Texas....Winter wise...back in late December...hummmm. I mentioned that to him this morning and he stated, well we have 18 days to go, anything can happen...

[dhweather]

Rare Feb Typhoon Higos recurving, tell that to the models. Should reshuffle the Pacific.

Hopefully this gets rid of that pesky Gulf of Alaska low that has not budged.

[Ntxw]

A little unrelated but the AMO has taken a nosedive negative to start this year. It has tapped below a few times the past year. With the persistent +PDO signal thats been ongoing for 12+ months perhaps longterm trends continue to look better for drought improvement. We are still feeling the lag effects with the hydrological drought which could use a good spring. These lakes can fill up quickly with a wet spring.

[Texas Snowman]

A little unrelated but the AMO has taken a nosedive negative to start this year. It has tapped below a few times the past year. With the persistent +PDO signal thats been ongoing for 12+ months perhaps longterm trends continue to look better for drought improvement. We are still feeling the lag effects with the hydrological drought which could use a good spring. These lakes can fill up quickly with a wet spring.

I know that everyone hates the drought, myself included. I'm tired of seeing my favorite bass lakes (Lake Fork, for example) several feet below normal consistently.

But I was watching an outdoor television show last night and was reminded that in Texas, it's usually either boom or bust. Example? When the dam was closed on 185,000-acre Toledo Bend, it was expected that it would take several years for the Texas/Louisiana border lake to fill.

How long did it take? Six months.

[Tireman4]

Not seeing much to go on as far as Arctic air for our area over the next couple weeks though it does look cooler than we have been recently. I do not think the models have a clue on what will happen late this month with the opposing teles so they are showing zonal flow by default.

And Higos?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If nino is still around this spring, i think Texas will get plenty of rain. What you need though is a washout event in North Texas. Central Texas needs the rain too.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Current GFS run is at 126 hrs and you can see the -EPO starting to raise heights big time in the NE Pacific