Texas Winter 2025-2026

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iorange55
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4201 Postby iorange55 » Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:43 am

Something to keep in mind (that may or may not be a factor) is that we don't have a lot of balloons testing the atmosphere above. Sometimes the models are off on this, simply because we don't have enough real time data.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4202 Postby ATXAG95 » Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:45 am

funster wrote:Ercot showing a slightly tight supply and demand on the 26th with about 6,000 MW to spare. Fingers crossed. https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashb ... yanddemand


I think that regulators learned their lesson the hard way in 2021. They should have protected the grid rather than letting the system trip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4203 Postby Winter_Wisher » Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:48 am

I am choosing to believe my own model which I have drawn with crayons and markers, it shows lots of snow in the DFW area this weekend. You can tell because it is in blue marker, which is the deepest blue color in my box.
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:thermo: wishing for Winter.

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4204 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:50 am

Winter_Wisher wrote:I am choosing to believe my own model which I have drawn with crayons and markers, it shows lots of snow in the DFW area this weekend. You can tell because it is in blue marker, which is the deepest blue color in my box.


Lock it in. One snow day coming right up!
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Snow in Texas? What’s that?

Don't use my posts as forecast; I'm not a certified meteorologist! I just endorse cold weather, alright?

All observations I note are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4205 Postby funster » Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:56 am

Winter_Wisher wrote:I am choosing to believe my own model which I have drawn with crayons and markers, it shows lots of snow in the DFW area this weekend. You can tell because it is in blue marker, which is the deepest blue color in my box.


Midnight blue for the snow win.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4206 Postby Captmorg70 » Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:58 am

I mean 7” of sleet is basically just like snow right??? :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4207 Postby snownado » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:02 am

Captmorg70 wrote:I mean 7” of sleet is basically just like snow right??? :lol:


:spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4208 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:03 am

Captmorg70 wrote:I mean 7” of sleet is basically just like snow right??? :lol:


We call it poor man's snow round here!
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4209 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:03 am

IMBY my wind is trending more north from NE, hopefully that continues with those "mountains."

My last rain was December 1. Um, I had no idea it has been that long, and that was only .10. I got like a trace a few weeks ago, but that doesn't count. Goodness. We need this badly.

Also, I have been screenshotting the winter FWD page, and they did move the 2-inch sleet/snow line south overnight. No big increases up north unfortunately, but it's something. Again, my feeling on sleet is at least it's off-white and similar to snow. The issue is when it smarts to melt, it can become hazardous on the roads just as much as a sheet of ice eventually. So, snow is much safer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4210 Postby bigddstranny » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:06 am

Captmorg70 wrote:I mean 7” of sleet is basically just like snow right??? :lol:


Sleet stays around for a long time. The kiddos play in it just like snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4211 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:12 am

Single digit DPs now stretch from NE TX Panhandle through the across N OK. Teen DPs near the Red River in SW and SC OK now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4212 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:13 am

bigddstranny wrote:
Captmorg70 wrote:I mean 7” of sleet is basically just like snow right??? :lol:


Sleet stays around for a long time. The kiddos play in it just like snow.

There is a good chance that if we get the late week storm it will have a base of sleet and snow to accumulate on vs bare grass. Roads should improve in between though for most with mid week temps near 40 and some sun.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4213 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:15 am

rwfromkansas wrote:IMBY my wind is trending more north from NE, hopefully that continues with those "mountains."

My last rain was December 1. Um, I had no idea it has been that long, and that was only .10. I got like a trace a few weeks ago, but that doesn't count. Goodness. We need this badly.

Also, I have been screenshotting the winter FWD page, and they did move the 2-inch sleet/snow line south overnight. No big increases up north unfortunately, but it's something. Again, my feeling on sleet is at least it's off-white and similar to snow. The issue is when it smarts to melt, it can become hazardous on the roads just as much as a sheet of ice eventually. So, snow is much safer.


Yep, the cobblestone ice debacle of Dec 2013 is the big threat here (this looks similar but more precip)...once the frz rain/sleet combo sets in on bridges and overpasses it's very difficult to move with a snow plow and dangerous to drive over (high center). Will stick around for several days on roads
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4214 Postby Captmorg70 » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:16 am

Two websites I have a feeling I will be using a lot this weekend:

Drive Oklahoma - https://oktraffic.org/#/map
Drive Texas - https://drivetexas.org/

Both have traffic cameras to watch the storm. Drive Texas will also update road conditions.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4215 Postby Tammie » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:20 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:Single digit DPs now stretch from NE TX Panhandle through the across N OK. Teen DPs near the Red River in SW and SC OK now.


OHHHH! Remind us again what that means please?
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4216 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:25 am

Evan Andrews is going with 2-3 of sleet and snow so fairly similar to FWD.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4217 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:26 am

Tammie wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:Single digit DPs now stretch from NE TX Panhandle through the across N OK. Teen DPs near the Red River in SW and SC OK now.


OHHHH! Remind us again what that means please?

Dew point is measure of how much moisture is in the air and the temperature cannot drop below the dew point. The closer the air temperature is to the dew point the higher the humidity. Low dewpoints signify the true Arctic air as Arctic air is very dry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4218 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:31 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:Single digit DPs now stretch from NE TX Panhandle through the across N OK. Teen DPs near the Red River in SW and SC OK now.


So are the teens possibly the initial wind shift, then the single digits the bigger push of real cold air?
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4219 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:33 am

Captmorg70 wrote:Two websites I have a feeling I will be using a lot this weekend:

Drive Oklahoma - https://oktraffic.org/#/map
Drive Texas - https://drivetexas.org/

Both have traffic cameras to watch the storm. Drive Texas will also update road conditions.

Also, do not forget to use https://www.idrivearkansas.com/ for ARDOT cameras!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#4220 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:35 am

Now next weekend really has my attention despite this storm being impactful , oh boy GFS and CMC…..
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