ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

There are a few high mountains in eastern Jamaica up around 7,000 feet. Central and western Jamaica is mostly a plateau up to about 3,000 feet.

[Wx_Warrior]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

[rockyman]

It's really taking off now...we had 2 "convective bumps"...now we have 3...and the convection south of Jamaica is dying out (as expected)

[ConvergenceZone]

WOW, from nothing to a nice blowup in an hour.

*prepares the crow*

But Brent, that convection is going to have to sustain itself....We'll know in a few hours...

[tolakram]

WOW, from nothing to a nice blowup in an hour.

*prepares the crow*

It had an LLC, not nothing, though I know what you mean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Um Ed, better check out the 0z model runs ... they've shifted a bit west.

At 9:30 pm CDT, I'm pretty sure you're talking the BAMMs, and, as everyone always says, they are a model for storms in the tropics, and once North of about 25º, it isn't really the tropics.

Nope, it was more than just the BAMMs. Check out the models thread. And I wrote they shifted "a bit", not 100 miles.

A bit, as in a tiny amount, and except for shallow BAM, all still aimed at Lousiana to Alabama.

[Sanibel]

That little center burst should be tonight's blow-up over the center.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Why so? I was thinking that it was trending East?

[LSU2001]

There are a few high mountains in eastern Jamaica up around 7,000 feet. Central and western Jamaica is mostly a plateau up to about 3,000 feet.

Just for Clarification
Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... nt/jm.html

Elevation extremes:
lowest point: Caribbean Sea 0 m
highest point: Blue Mountain Peak 2,256 m

2256 Meters = 7401.5748 Feet

[Ivanhater]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

With a trough digging..I doubt it

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

GFDL has shown pretty amazing run to run consistency, shifting from just West of NOLA to just East of NOLA over past day.

[Just Joshing You]

I have a funny feeling that this storm is going to wrap up really nice while I sleep.

[O Town]

Hes sucking the convection right out of that blob to the east like a straw.
Gustav is thristy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[ColdFusion]

WHY does there have to be a 30 minute delay on the GOES floater? Is it a business decision? Surely the technology is there to get the images posted much faster with greater frequency.

[Sanibel]

TWC showed the High shifting east as Gus recurves around it in the Gulf.

[LSU2001]

Convective burst still growing and deepening
Maybe being back over open water with shear decreasing and land interaction lessening is having a quick effect
and I do agree that persistence is needed for a re-organization.
Tim

[Sean in New Orleans]

Convective burst still growing and deepening
Maybe being back over open water with shear decreasing and land interaction lessening is having a quick effect
and I do agree that persistence is needed for a re-organization.
Tim

Yep...it made it.

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

GFDL has shown pretty amazing run to run consistency, shifting from just West of NOLA to just East of NOLA over past day.

It certainly has.

[Annie Oakley]

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if all models were Texas tomorrow. Then Central Texas Friday and South Texas Saturday. One day at a time...I'd rather have the model now than on Monday.

Uhhh Mods-please.....this is ?????

[rockyman]

Here come the advisories:

outlook valid 01/0000z 26.0n 87.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Outlook valid 02/0000z 29.0n 89.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.