ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

he is north of forecast points.....probably due to that ULL to its NW. Sling shot effect but once the ULL moves out of the way I think the BOC will be its next target....as per the models.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 071433
XXAA 57149 99181 70848 04584 99989 27208 23505 00599 ///// /////
92592 24418 24006 85332 ///// 88999 77999
31313 09608 81415
61616 AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 17
62626 SPL 1811N08479W 1417 MBL WND 22509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 23005
988843 WL150 22509 084 REL 1811N08479W 141522 SPG 1811N08479W 141
726 =
XXBB 57148 99181 70848 04584 00989 27208 11850 ///// 22843 /////
21212 00989 23505 11979 22510 22967 22010 33854 28501
31313 09608 81415
61616 AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 17
62626 SPL 1811N08479W 1417 MBL WND 22509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 23005
988843 WL150 22509 084 REL 1811N08479W 141522 SPG 1811N08479W 141
726 =
;

[Sanibel]

The obvious question is will it bomb pre-shore or not? From previous behavior the trend would be not, but cyclones are totally unpredictable. That area of Mexico has little or no population, probably due to hurrricanes.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071506
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 40 20120807
145730 1820N 08611W 8432 01541 //// +149 //// 036027 027 026 015 01
145800 1818N 08611W 8423 01554 0070 +170 +170 036024 026 017 007 05
145830 1816N 08610W 8430 01542 0067 +170 +170 031022 022 007 006 05
145900 1815N 08608W 8430 01540 0064 +170 +170 028021 022 007 006 05
145930 1814N 08607W 8429 01543 0062 +170 +170 032020 021 001 006 05
150000 1813N 08606W 8430 01538 0058 +170 +170 031018 019 008 011 01
150030 1813N 08604W 8410 01563 //// +156 //// 022023 024 026 010 01
150100 1813N 08602W 8414 01555 //// +161 //// 031024 025 016 008 01
150130 1813N 08601W 8435 01532 0059 +170 +170 037025 025 007 006 01
150200 1813N 08559W 8429 01539 0060 +170 +170 038023 024 003 005 05
150230 1813N 08557W 8432 01533 0060 +160 +160 036024 025 009 003 05
150300 1813N 08556W 8429 01537 0059 +170 +170 036024 025 006 004 01
150330 1813N 08554W 8430 01533 0056 +170 +170 033026 026 010 004 05
150400 1813N 08553W 8429 01534 0054 +170 +170 030026 027 007 005 01
150430 1813N 08551W 8430 01533 0051 +173 +169 029025 026 010 006 00
150500 1813N 08550W 8429 01532 0047 +180 +165 032027 027 013 005 00
150530 1813N 08548W 8430 01527 0046 +175 +167 032024 027 012 005 00
150600 1813N 08546W 8433 01526 0045 +170 +170 034020 022 014 005 01
150630 1813N 08545W 8429 01528 0040 +179 +172 024024 025 012 005 00
150700 1813N 08543W 8430 01525 0041 +170 +170 027025 026 015 006 05
$$

[drezee]

That initial squall line heading toward the Mexican coast is a beast. It muct have downdrafts or waterspouts...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

47mph sustained winds and gust to 94mph measured

[petit_bois]

Ernie is in our "window" right now. We should get a nice
long period (10-16 sec) ground swell start show up on our
beaches tomorrow around noon and last through Thursday.
Wax those boards up GOM'ers!
Hope everyone stays safe in Mexico.

[cycloneye]

For sure not a beach day in Playa del Carmen near Cozumel. Normally,it's packed with many beachgoers.

[artist]

[littlevince]

if you need help,'m here, just ask

[Shuriken]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... JavaScript

Pipe to 200mb wide-open.

[JGrin87]

This is the best Ernesto has looked IMO

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071516
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 41 20120807
150730 1813N 08541W 8429 01523 0040 +170 +170 027025 026 018 005 01
150800 1813N 08540W 8429 01521 0038 +170 +170 027027 029 023 004 01
150830 1813N 08538W 8428 01520 //// +157 //// 028028 029 024 008 01
150900 1813N 08537W 8433 01513 //// +148 //// 029030 033 025 010 01
150930 1813N 08535W 8427 01517 //// +160 //// 030032 034 026 006 01
151000 1813N 08533W 8432 01510 //// +165 //// 027031 031 025 007 01
151030 1813N 08532W 8429 01510 //// +172 //// 030031 031 027 006 01
151100 1813N 08530W 8428 01508 //// +165 //// 028030 030 026 007 01
151130 1813N 08529W 8430 01502 //// +162 //// 023031 033 028 007 01
151200 1814N 08527W 8432 01499 0011 +180 +180 022029 029 030 006 01
151230 1814N 08525W 8430 01498 0006 +180 +180 022029 030 030 006 01
151300 1814N 08524W 8427 01496 9996 +189 +181 015031 032 029 006 00
151330 1814N 08522W 8432 01488 9990 +190 +180 011032 033 029 006 00
151400 1814N 08520W 8429 01484 9985 +188 +183 003033 033 032 006 00
151430 1814N 08519W 8433 01474 9979 +180 +180 352030 033 031 006 01
151500 1814N 08517W 8429 01471 9972 +190 +190 354031 033 035 006 01
151530 1814N 08515W 8434 01459 9961 +190 +190 001034 035 035 006 01
151600 1814N 08514W 8425 01456 9944 +194 +179 354038 039 036 005 00
151630 1814N 08512W 8429 01437 9924 +201 +186 347041 043 039 006 00
151700 1814N 08510W 8425 01423 9910 +190 +190 339039 043 041 007 05
$$
;

[artist]

if you need help,'m here, just ask

could you take over with HDOBS 43? We are on 41 now.

[tailgater]

Well it needs to starting turning more westward real soon.

[littlevince]

if you need help,'m here, just ask

could you take over with HDOBS 43? We are on 41 now.

OK

[artist]

[artist]

if you need help,'m here, just ask

could you take over with HDOBS 43? We are on 41 now.

OK

thank you!

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071526
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 42 20120807
151730 1814N 08508W 8437 01399 9888 +204 +202 336031 038 037 008 00
151800 1814N 08507W 8429 01397 9879 +200 +200 326011 028 027 006 01
151830 1815N 08505W 8431 01390 9875 +203 +194 120006 009 006 004 03
151900 1816N 08504W 8427 01393 9878 +200 +191 151007 009 004 005 00
151930 1816N 08502W 8433 01392 9886 +190 +190 196011 013 009 006 01
152000 1816N 08500W 8428 01400 9891 +190 +190 197022 027 020 008 01
152030 1816N 08458W 8431 01407 9899 +190 +190 192039 044 042 014 01
152100 1816N 08457W 8441 01405 //// +171 //// 186055 059 051 011 01
152130 1816N 08455W 8435 01426 //// +165 //// 189061 062 050 011 01
152200 1816N 08453W 8425 01445 //// +174 //// 189059 060 048 010 01
152230 1816N 08451W 8430 01452 9953 +190 +190 187056 058 045 009 01
152300 1816N 08450W 8430 01462 9962 +180 +180 186055 056 046 007 01
152330 1816N 08448W 8427 01472 //// +168 //// 186058 059 047 010 01
152400 1816N 08446W 8433 01474 //// +162 //// 184059 060 049 010 01
152430 1815N 08445W 8428 01484 //// +161 //// 183061 062 050 015 01
152500 1815N 08443W 8435 01485 //// +147 //// 179061 061 051 018 01
152530 1815N 08441W 8423 01502 //// +146 //// 179060 061 052 021 01
152600 1815N 08440W 8431 01497 //// +148 //// 180059 061 050 019 01
152630 1815N 08438W 8433 01502 //// +145 //// 176061 062 050 019 01
152700 1815N 08436W 8428 01510 //// +143 //// 175060 061 051 016 01
$$
;

[artist]

[artist]

all yours littlevince. Thanks again!