ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Raebie]

Outage Update - 2230z (only going to include >10,000 from now on)
North Carolina: 88,009
Florida (outflow thunderstorms): 17,782

What outflow thunderstorms in Florida? I'm not seeing any.

[artist]

Derek Ortt
@DerekOrtt
·
11m
Aircraft data confirms that no intensification is occurring with
#Florence
. If anything, Florence may be a category 1 hurricane based upon the aircraft data. However, due to its size, a devastating tidal surge is ongoing in North Carolina. Worst appears to be in New Bern

[wx98]

What are the highest winds recon foind so far?

~92 FL and ~74 SFMR

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looking like intensification is underway

[wx98]

6mb drop...thing needs to move ashore or this will be a catastrophe

Recon measured 1 mb drop between passes

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Derek Ortt
@DerekOrtt
·
11m
Aircraft data confirms that no intensification is occurring with
#Florence
. If anything, Florence may be a category 1 hurricane based upon the aircraft data. However, due to its size, a devastating tidal surge is ongoing in North Carolina. Worst appears to be in New Bern

Sounds good. Hope it verifies

[ronjon]

https://twitter.com/ceober4/status/1040379472686604289

Thats 82 mph sustained, 97 mph gusts. I'd say hurricane force verified.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1040385307802329088

[SEASON_CANCELED]

6mb drop...thing needs to move ashore or this will be a catastrophe

Recon measured 1 mb drop between passes

Yeah watch what you take as fact on twitter. I see that

[ronjon]

https://twitter.com/ceober4/status/1040379472686604289

Thats 82 mph sustained, 97 mph gusts. I'd say hurricane force verified at cape lookout

[abajan]

It's pressure is dropping, but is there any sign of the winds increasing?

If the MSW aren't increasing, it may be getting bigger: conservation of angular momentum, I believe it's called. Or there could simply be a lag before it intensifies.

[tolakram]

Small partial eye swimming around in the big eye.

[meriland29]

Small partial eye swimming around in the big eye.

https://i.imgur.com/pL0Y7Oj.gif

Would that mean disruption or ERC?

[Bunkertor]

Off topic, but this crazy, several communities in Massachusetts hit with home explosions
http://www.eagletribune.com/region/expl ... f0bb4.html
Stay safe all

Delete if you need to

Interesting
451: Unavailable due to legal reasons

We recognize you are attempting to access this website from a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA) including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at this time. For any issues, contact news@eagletribune.com or call 978-946-2000.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Bouy just offshore registered 115mph. Definately getting stronger

That's a gust, just for reference.

Before someone panics, lol.

[Raebie]

I'm really surprised at the lack of tornados so far. Still too far offshore?

[drezee]

Maybe a tornado hit this buoy...

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41038

116kt gust!

[jlauderdal]

Northest quad which is offshore

I'm really surprised at the lack of tornados so far. Still too far offshore?

[tolakram]

Small partial eye swimming around in the big eye.

https://i.imgur.com/pL0Y7Oj.gif

Would that mean disruption or ERC?

The ERC never finished, and just like Ike, Florence is too big to really clear it out or intensify as far as wind speed goes. The wind field is expanding, meaning surge potential is rising. People keep focusing on raw wind speed which doesn't mean much of anything at this point. I liken it to water in a bathtub. Use only one finger and make a spinning motion as fast as you can, cat 5 speed, with just one finger. Now use your entire hand but go slower. You are moving a LOT more water.

I'm guilty of over comparing this to Ike, and Ike was in the gulf which can be more prone to surge because of the shape, but I feel like surge here along the coast is going to be really bad. Any drop in pressure most likely translates to a very small increase in wind speed over a very large area (rather than just a tiny eyewall).

[Raebie]

Maybe a tornado hit this buoy...

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41038

116kt gust!

Well there ya go.