ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Nino 1+2 has finally warmed. Now let's see how things evolve at Nino 3.4 in the next couple of weeks.

[Kingarabian]

Some models appear to be forecasting for the MJO to reach the EPAC in a week or so.
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[xtyphooncyclonex]

2009 had anomalies of 1.6, not 1.9

23DEC2009 Nino 3.4 28.4 1.9
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for


Probably the ONI made it moderate, but it is strong in terms of SST anomalies.

[cycloneye]

Here is the new update of the sub-surface that shows that large warm pool mainly intact and reaching the surface.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The warm pool just shrunk!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño 1+2 warmed alot, now at +0.122ºC.

[OURAGAN]

I agree with you

[dexterlabio]

It did shrink a lot. This is enough though to maintain weak to moderate EN until the end of summer, we need another warm pool if this ENSO event is gonna be strong...

[tolakram]

As it surfaces it's going to shrink.

[euro6208]

It did shrink a lot. This is enough though to maintain weak to moderate EN until the end of summer, we need another warm pool if this ENSO event is gonna be strong...

Yup looks like another warm pool in the making in the wpac near the dateline...

[Alyono]

Eric Blake just posted on his twitter that the CFS has been terrible so far in terms of WWB prediction this year

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 61/photo/1

the forecast

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 92/photo/1

the reality

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Yup another pool beneath the Equatorial IDL.

[Ntxw]

SOI is still running some positives with tropical activity nearby in the +10s. ESPI is in the opposite direction with +1.05

[Ntxw]

2009 had anomalies of 1.6, not 1.9

23DEC2009 Nino 3.4 28.4 1.9
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for


Probably the ONI made it moderate, but it is strong in terms of SST anomalies.

2009 is tricky because the base averages changed in 2010 so it was the last ENSO event to have been used based on the 1971-2000 averages. SST's were overall cooler than 1981-2010 base thus at the time 2009 Nino was considered as a strong Nino of 1.8C at peak. But revised using the new base it is 1.6C which is borderline between moderate and strong.

[cycloneye]

Here is another loop of the sub-surface that I like better that shows what is going on.The remaining cold water is being pushed into a tiny space while the warm sub-surface waters spread along the coast of SA.

[Alyono]

lets not lose sight of the elephant in the room that as usual, the models are totally busting to date

[Kingarabian]

lets not lose sight of the elephant in the room that as usual, the models are totally busting to date

I think as long as we don't have any tropical activity in the WPAC, we should ignore forecasts of any strong WWB.

[Kingarabian]

Powerful El Nino's (57, 65, 73, 82, 97) were April-May-June El Nino's. The later they arrive, weaker they become.

Is this true?

[Ntxw]

Powerful El Nino's (57, 65, 73, 82, 97) were April-May-June El Nino's. The later they arrive, weaker they become.

Is this true?

In general yes, the sooner the ONI starts the more likely they will become stronger ones. The later they start the weaker they are typically. To get AMJ typically has to at least see 0.5C in may and continually rise. 1997 saw it's first 0.5C or greater reading last week of April and was at 1C by early June. Some have started in MJJ.

But 2002 is notable exception, started in AMJ but only ended up moderate.

[Yellow Evan]

Powerful El Nino's (57, 65, 73, 82, 97) were April-May-June El Nino's. The later they arrive, weaker they become.

Is this true?

In general yes, the sooner the ONI starts the more likely they will become stronger ones. The later they start the weaker they are typically. To get AMJ typically has to at least see 0.5C in may and continually rise. 1997 saw it's first 0.5C or greater reading last week of April and was at 1C by early June. Some have started in MJJ.

But 2002 is notable exception, started in AMJ but only ended up moderate.

Another is 1986-87, which started in the summer but peaked in the summer of 87.

Granted, that was a very interesting El Nino.