ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Thats the thing Derek a 40 mile difference this far out is nothing. either way I think Bro. is going to get something out of this, exactly what remains tobe seen.

[Aric Dunn]

and if the center does reform farther north.. that would be huge deal cause that would make a landfall near the cancun area which would cause a shorter amount of time over land..

[Javlin]

I do not know if someone has already posted this or not but if one looks at the cloud pattern for a direction hint this thing is going through the YUC Channel for the short term and I would think most models are off base for now.Another note is that or little ULL is losing the battle finally and starting to run out of staem so it's effects I would think as a steering mech shall start to diminish before long.Is tomorrow still progged as a day little shear??

[TexWx]

"Am I mistaken or when the outerbands move northward then that means the storm will follow??Am I right???????"

I have noticed that before, but it seems that this theory works with more tightly wound systems.

[RL3AO]

Thats the thing Derek a 40 mile difference this far out is nothing. either way I think Bro. is going to get something out of this, exactly what remains tobe seen.

40 miles is a huge difference. Because of shape of the Yucatan, further north by just a little bit could mean 4 less hours over land.

[ROCK]

North of Coz is not out of the question just by looking at my measly 1km vis.....

[KWT]

Looking at the bigger picture doesn't look all that good right now, though still good enough to justify 40-45kts IMO and there is some cuvring but does seem to be hints that the low level center isn't as dominant as before.

Recon soon wil lbe very interesting to watch!

North of Coz is possible, even the NHC forecast is pretty close to that in about 12hrs time.

[stevetampa33614]

Good morning all.

Saw that LLc at 4:00 am everyone was calling me nuts. Vindicated is the word . See some discussion about LLC reforming try to check it out. Intensity wise I think the NHC is right on. Maybe in the very best conditions we will have a weak CAT 2. More than likely a Stronger Tropical Storm will generate in the gulf and wander towards texas.

Dont think we will see anything like Dennis or Emily. That ULL would have to leave the picture.

[TexWx]

I've always been a big fan of this satellite view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[srainhoutx]

Another hour or so the NOAA P-3 will be there and give some very definitive answers.

[Just Joshing You]

I have a funny feeling that Dolly is about to explode.

[Javlin]

"Am I mistaken or when the outerbands move northward then that means the storm will follow??Am I right???????"

I have noticed that before, but it seems that this theory works with more tightly wound systems.

No not necassarily I think it was Anna a few years back crossed from the Pac to the BOC I think not very strong and the clouds gave the hint of the new motion.

[stevetampa33614]

I've always been a big fan of this satellite view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

Well it looks like the center is at 20. 84 Heading smack for Cancun.

I have a funny feeling that Dolly is about to explode.

I drank alot of beer last night, I have a funny feeling im gonna explode.

Besides, what are you basing this on? I base it on PF Changs and ICEHOUSE

[Just Joshing You]

Gut instinct.

[hurricanefloyd5]

"Am I mistaken or when the outerbands move northward then that means the storm will follow??Am I right???????"

I have noticed that before, but it seems that this theory works with more tightly wound systems.

No not necassarily I think it was Anna a few years back crossed from the Pac to the BOC I think not very strong and the clouds gave the hint of the new motion.

Are you agreeing with me or is that a disagreeing.. If you disagree I am ok with that!!!!!!!LOL

[stevetampa33614]

Gut instinct.

me too

[Javlin]

"Am I mistaken or when the outerbands move northward then that means the storm will follow??Am I right???????"

I have noticed that before, but it seems that this theory works with more tightly wound systems.

No not necassarily I think it was Anna a few years back crossed from the Pac to the BOC I think not very strong and the clouds gave the hint of the new motion.

Are you agreeing with me or is that a disagreeing.. If you disagree I am ok with that!!!!!!!LOL

Just noting that weaker systems which or looser will behave the same as any others.This thing really looks like it might make the cut through the channel

[BigA]

I've always been a big fan of this satellite view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

Straining my eyes on that GOM image, I think it see low clouds moving around where the relocated center would be. Could be seeing what I want to see though.

[stevetampa33614]

I've always been a big fan of this satellite view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

Straining my eyes on that GOM image, I think it see low clouds moving around where the relocated center would be. Could be seeing what I want to see though.

Well if this is true than the models were initialized incorrectly and they must be fixed so a track shift is in order but still, from Louisana to Florida is not going to be under the gun.

[HarlequinBoy]

I think it's going to only be over the Yucatan for a few hours. Minimal interruption imo.