ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Gustywind, good to see all is ok with you, looks like a big area of convection nearby you.

[Gustywind]

Thanks to all my friend in the Carib and from too

Hi Gusty, wet, wet, wet here. Any news from Martinique? Looks as if they were centre stage last night.
Chris

Here are the latest news for Martinica, not good all...

At 7H30 AM Martinica has requiered a red vigilance for strong showers/tstorms and floodings...
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_mart.php


The time for the next few hours on Martinique

07: 30 AM, our Department is red vigilance for "stormy rains and floods".

Accumulations of rain observed that night are 70 to 80 mm and locally 100 mm.

In the next hours, accumulations of rainfall in the range 50 to 100 mm are expected on our island

Caution remains appropriate.

Next bulletin at 11: 30 am.

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021144
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 11 20110802
113430 1441N 06250W 9776 00271 //// +240 //// 164020 020 033 006 01
113500 1440N 06249W 9768 00279 //// +240 //// 161019 019 032 006 01
113530 1439N 06248W 9772 00276 //// +237 //// 155019 019 032 008 01
113600 1438N 06247W 9768 00280 //// +239 //// 160018 019 033 008 01
113630 1436N 06246W 9776 00271 //// +234 //// 156017 018 033 009 01
113700 1435N 06245W 9770 00277 //// +234 //// 157016 017 032 008 01
113730 1434N 06244W 9770 00278 //// +234 //// 154016 017 032 007 01
113800 1433N 06243W 9772 00277 //// +228 //// 146018 019 033 006 01
113830 1432N 06242W 9768 00280 //// +234 //// 151015 016 031 007 01
113900 1431N 06241W 9777 00272 //// +230 //// 144017 017 031 007 01
113930 1430N 06241W 9766 00282 //// +230 //// 146016 016 030 006 01
114000 1429N 06240W 9773 00275 //// +230 //// 146017 017 030 006 01
114030 1428N 06239W 9769 00280 //// +229 //// 148017 018 029 006 01
114100 1427N 06238W 9775 00274 //// +229 //// 148018 019 029 006 05
114130 1428N 06236W 9772 00277 //// +229 //// 144020 020 /// /// 05
114200 1429N 06237W 9775 00275 //// +228 //// 138020 020 025 005 05
114230 1431N 06237W 9770 00279 //// +230 //// 144020 020 029 003 01
114300 1432N 06237W 9769 00281 //// +231 //// 146019 020 026 006 01
114330 1434N 06238W 9774 00276 //// +230 //// 141019 020 028 004 01
114400 1436N 06238W 9769 00280 //// +235 //// 144018 019 029 004 01
$$
;

[GCANE]

Recon shows the center (or a center) a good distance east of the NHC position.

Hmmm that would be interesting...would suggest the system is actually fairly well stacked...

Rain-rate is also strongest in this area as well.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Just looking through the recon reports not totally convinced there is much of a low level circulation even out there, if there is its very weak and could well open up.

[Gustywind]

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you think it could be downgraded to a depression?

[Gustywind]

[Evil Jeremy]

06z GFDL slightly east of last run, only a small swing though.

[KWT]

Recon suggests its a close call SFwx, the NHC could downgrade or they could keep it at 35kts since the obs maybe just about support it if they are being cautious about downgrading it too soon...

They'll keep it at 35kts and see what the next recon flight shows later on, if that doersn't show any improvement they may downgrade it then...IMO!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS EMILY STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY WAS A LITTLE
BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN
AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TODAY...AND APPROACH HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE EMILY INTERACTS WITH LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021151
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS EMILY STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...

[cycloneye]

Recon suggests its a close call SFwx, the NHC could downgrade or they could keep it at 35kts since the obs maybe just about support it if they are being cautious about downgrading it too soon...

They'll keep it at 35kts and see what the next recon flight shows later on, if that doersn't show any improvement they may downgrade it then...IMO!

Still TS at 8 AM but plane found center SE of 5 AM position.

[KWT]

Yeah models still swinging a little bit but the broad idea now is pretty well supported by most of the models, its just the exact angle of the turn that is making it a little more uncertain.

[Dave]

Here you go KWT...I can't stay right now but will be back later...wanted to at least get a center fix graphic up though.

[SouthFloridawx]

How about a trend towards the west and reformation of the center eventually to the south?

[KWT]

Thanks!

I can only do one more set anyway, so if anyone else cantake over PLEASE!

[NDG]

Based on my estimates from where the recon found Emily this morning and when she was last fixed on her location last night before the recon left, she has only been moving W at around 11-12 mph.

[Gustywind]