ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[UpTheCreek]

So now the discussion starts to mention that she could curve and miss land completely?
Kudos to the Pro Met from Fox13 who posted that yesterday and got a lot of laughter at the time.
Now, it just might happen.

I don't think anyone was making light of his prediction, it's just that he came off so cock-sure of himself without anything to back it up. That's a big deal when it comes from a Pro, people tend to listen.

I hope he's right though, that current track right now is literally over my town and it'll be quite devastating!

[Aric Dunn]

Have to wait for a few fixes from recon, but per the visible, looks like she's doing 280-285 max right now, maybe even 275. Hope it's just a wobble.

Also seemed to have lost some punch, Recon not finding any super high winds like last night.

pretty sure this motion is do the the mountains. If so it will likely keep a more westerly motion for the next 6 hours or till it can get the southern inflow out of the mountains.

[hipshot]

WV loop. Irene looks to be 'stepping' northwestwards rather than a gradual recurve. If it keeps the trend up the track will be further West to make up for the lack of latitude gained.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

From that graphic, I can't tell if the shift is just the change in storm cloud formation or a jog of the COC. I almost looks to have stepped S of W slightly in the last couple of frames.

[eastcoastFL]

Have to wait for a few fixes from recon, but per the visible, looks like she's doing 280-285 max right now, maybe even 275. Hope it's just a wobble.

Also seemed to have lost some punch, Recon not finding any super high winds like last night.

pretty sure this motion is do the the mountains. If so it will likely keep a more westerly motion for the next 6 hours or till it can get the southern inflow out of the mountains.

what are you using to determining the motion and the center of circulation?

The visible loop from the NHC is crap.

[Battlebrick]

Irene is ingesting some dry air on its southern flank from Hispaniola.. once it gets away from there, strengthening should speed up.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231519
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 15 20110823
150900 2146N 07218W 6916 03218 0058 +088 +063 047039 040 /// /// 03
150930 2148N 07219W 6916 03216 0051 +090 +065 047039 040 /// /// 03
151000 2149N 07221W 6914 03217 0047 +092 +064 047040 041 /// /// 03
151030 2149N 07223W 6918 03213 0047 +092 +055 043039 041 /// /// 03
151100 2147N 07224W 6913 03218 0050 +090 +057 043038 040 035 001 03
151130 2145N 07223W 6916 03215 0049 +091 +059 044037 038 035 000 03
151200 2143N 07223W 6914 03212 0048 +090 +064 044034 036 036 000 03
151230 2141N 07224W 6916 03221 0049 +091 +062 041032 032 038 000 00
151300 2141N 07224W 6916 03221 0048 +092 +063 037031 031 043 000 00
151330 2137N 07224W 6914 03213 0043 +091 +066 036033 035 044 000 03
151400 2135N 07224W 6916 03218 0051 +091 +069 037036 036 044 000 00
151430 2133N 07225W 6913 03211 0046 +088 +067 036036 037 043 000 03
151500 2131N 07225W 6916 03207 0043 +087 +067 033036 037 043 000 03
151530 2129N 07225W 6914 03206 0041 +087 +066 030037 038 042 000 03
151600 2127N 07226W 6914 03205 0038 +088 +067 032037 037 043 000 03
151630 2125N 07226W 6913 03201 0041 +081 +074 035038 038 044 000 03
151700 2123N 07226W 6915 03194 0039 +080 +071 038038 039 043 000 03
151730 2121N 07226W 6913 03196 0040 +079 +071 033039 040 041 000 03
151800 2118N 07227W 6918 03194 0044 +077 +070 032040 041 041 000 03
151830 2116N 07227W 6915 03194 0042 +077 +070 031041 042 043 000 03
$$

[KWT]

Well certainly interesting tracks now being predicted, up the east coast by in large.

I'd say right now though by far the better chance is for a landfall in SC/NC, though note the track is MORE likely to go to the east then the west of where it is, as Wxman57 if there are erros in these types of tracks, its usually to the east.

[chris_fit]

what are you using to determining the motion and the center of circulation?

The visible loop from the NHC is crap.

I used the 8am position to the VDM message that came out (or the 11am position) - 289 degrees using google earth ruler

Then drew another point from the current 11am position to the +12hrs point... looks like 303 or so.

[Dave]

Getting caught up on grahpics...bear with me for a few...

[KWT]

pretty sure this motion is do the the mountains. If so it will likely keep a more westerly motion for the next 6 hours or till it can get the southern inflow out of the mountains.

Yeah that makes plenty of sense. I think the track WNW maybe more of a wobble but you never know do you...

[Gustywind]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is actually a pretty decent chance this misses the United States entirely.

Could this be a record for the most posts on a system that does not actually make landfall in the United States, if it ended up not hitting the United States?

Looks like based on the pattern now with that stubborn death ridge over Texas....the only way to get a CONUS hit is to have something form in the NW Caribbean, south of Cuba...

We need a major shift in the long-wave pattern if we expect Cape Verde systems to make an impact.

Still plenty of time for the long-wave pattern to change though.

October could be an interesting month.

That will be good news for you Gatorcane in the US to be spared... but let's wait and see what could happens with this fat lady Irene.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Weatherboy1]

Wobbles are part and parcel of the way these storms move. Unless a wobble persists for 6-12 hours, I wouldn't sweat it. Like everyone else, I thought for sure that this would be a very close pass here in FL and possibly an ultimate landfall closer to the GA/SC border. But I can't argue with such a powerful model consensus, especially given the fact the models converged on such a track AFTER the dropsonde data was ingested. That only increases the reliability in my mind. Odd to see a storm getting scooped up by a trof this far south in late August but it is what it is!

[Aric Dunn]

hello eye..

[HurricaneWarning92]

what i find interesting is the Storm2k graphic map still has S FL in the cone while the NHC doenst... so on one site im in the cone, but on the other im not.. should i watch this? im confused.

[KWT]

Also something that is REALLY getting on my nerves already is the idea that this storm wil lbe a fish...

Ummm...given its already hit PR AND going to go through the Bahamas and probably going to hit NC/outer Bank (I'm FAR from convinced this goes out to sea yet) means this is NO fish!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide View:

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231529
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 16 20110823
151900 2114N 07227W 6916 03199 0038 +082 +069 032040 041 044 000 03
151930 2112N 07227W 6915 03196 0040 +080 +073 034038 039 040 000 03
152000 2110N 07228W 6912 03201 0044 +079 +077 032038 040 042 000 03
152030 2108N 07228W 6914 03204 0046 +080 //// 031036 037 043 000 01
152100 2106N 07228W 6914 03199 0044 +080 +074 033035 036 041 002 03
152130 2104N 07228W 6913 03200 0040 +082 +071 030034 035 039 001 00
152200 2102N 07229W 6912 03202 0038 +085 +068 029034 034 038 000 03
152230 2100N 07229W 6916 03195 0037 +085 +067 027034 034 038 000 03
152300 2058N 07229W 6917 03196 0037 +085 +067 024034 034 039 000 03
152330 2056N 07230W 6912 03200 0037 +085 +065 021034 035 039 000 03
152400 2054N 07230W 6914 03196 0036 +085 +066 015037 039 037 000 03
152430 2052N 07230W 6918 03194 0038 +085 +062 013038 038 038 000 03
152500 2049N 07230W 6913 03201 0039 +085 +059 012036 037 036 000 03
152530 2047N 07231W 6916 03196 0041 +082 +061 010036 037 037 000 03
152600 2045N 07231W 6913 03197 0036 +082 +063 008037 039 040 000 03
152630 2043N 07231W 6916 03190 0035 +080 +067 011039 039 039 001 00
152700 2041N 07231W 6913 03204 0045 +080 +062 013039 039 038 000 03
152730 2039N 07232W 6917 03204 0048 +080 +062 014038 038 036 001 00
152800 2037N 07232W 6912 03213 0055 +080 +065 014037 038 035 001 03
152830 2035N 07231W 6916 03206 0053 +080 +075 015032 032 /// /// 03
$$
;

[petit_bois]

Wow... entire state of Florida out of the cone of terror.
Melbourne is only forcast to have 5-6 ft waves Thursday
with 30knt gusts. Yesterdsay forcast was for 8-12 ft.
with gail+

North Carolina beaches are forcast to have 25+ ft waves.

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 231529
97779 15114 30218 72400 31100 04038 09063 /3115
40535
RMK AF302 0809A IRENE OB 09
SWS = 34 KTS
NW OUTBOUND
;

[Dave]

Water Vapor