Global model runs discussion

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ROCK
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4281 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:38 am

Hurricaneman wrote:around 5 to 6 days from now the GFS shows a low forming in North Carolina and sliding offshore, could this be some homebrew tropical system, the poster somethingfunny picked out that possibility



The EURO take the vort from Isacc across Florida and into the EGOM now....1008MB....at 120hr
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4282 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:42 am

0Z NOGAPS is latching on to the low the EURO has in the medium range coming off of Africa

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#4283 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:19 am

Both the Euro and GFS show the remnants of Isaac, or a piece of it, moving back to the NE GOM redeveloping, weak, then moving eastward across the Peninsula being picked up a trough at the end of the week.
The euro has been showing this solution off and on during the last couple days.

Image
Image
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#4284 Postby rainstorm » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:31 am

how does isaacs remains get all the way down there?
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Re:

#4285 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:52 am

rainstorm wrote:how does isaacs remains get all the way down there?


It gets caught by the clockwise rotation of the ridge over TX sending it straight south towards the GOM.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4286 Postby HurricaneFan » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:27 am

There looks to be a Tropical Wave between 30W and 35W flaring up a lot right now.
Are any models starting to pick up on this system for development?
And what track are they hinting at now?Will it follow Leslie or will it make it to the Lesser Antilles?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4287 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Sep 03, 2012 10:00 am

06z GFS also shows Isaac's remnants redeveloping a little, then crossing the peninsula.

Image

Extremely long range GFS.

Image
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#4288 Postby rainstorm » Mon Sep 03, 2012 12:40 pm

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp47.png

gfs shows another recurve, ugh. but with a high over se canada and a trough in the central plains it would probably end up further west. of course, 18z will be completely different in any case.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4289 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:36 pm

EURO was interesting.....if Isaas does drop off AL/MS as progged and doesnt get picked up by the trof then it will follow the IVAN II track....back into LA possibly.....what a double whammy if that were to happen!!
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#4290 Postby rainstorm » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:05 pm

as expected the 18z totally changed. hurricane to miami on this run

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp47.png
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Re:

#4291 Postby Floridaman » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:13 pm

rainstorm wrote:as expected the 18z totally changed. hurricane to miami on this run

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp47.png


What storm would this be?
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Re: Re:

#4292 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:17 pm

Floridaman wrote:
rainstorm wrote:as expected the 18z totally changed. hurricane to miami on this run

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp47.png


What storm would this be?


Michael or Nadine, or maybe Oscar.
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#4293 Postby jaxfladude » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:01 pm

I do not like some of these models, too many chances of another U.S.A. hit or any one else for that matter.....albeit long range models
I want the "Shut Down" ASAP!
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4294 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:07 am

0z GFS shows three little ducks lined up in a row.

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4295 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:52 am

One of my favorite ways to check out the GFS at long range:

Image
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#4296 Postby rainstorm » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:03 am

06z back to recurve.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp43.png
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Re:

#4297 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:14 am

rainstorm wrote:06z back to recurve.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp43.png


But not before it clips the Northern Leewards/VI/PR.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4298 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:10 pm

I seem to recall someone saying that there would not be as many storms in Sept than August....Well Michael is one....the 12ZGFS already sniffing out 2 canidates in the med/ short range.... :wink:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4299 Postby rainstorm » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:24 pm

ROCK wrote:I seem to recall someone saying that there would not be as many storms in Sept than August....Well Michael is one....the 12ZGFS already sniffing out 2 canidates in the med/ short range.... :wink:



where?
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#4300 Postby rainstorm » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:48 pm

meanwhile, 12z has once again brought back the threat of an east coast cane.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp47.png
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