ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

Latest min obs...

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225730 2151N 07550W 8427 01488 //// +149 //// 144037 039 066 049 01
225800 2150N 07551W 8433 01489 //// +150 //// 170032 039 064 042 01

[cheezyWXguy]

I heard someone mention Issac is moving into an area of high instability that could really aid in intensification. Does anyone think theres a possibilty for mandatory evacuations down the line

Its probably not likely for the keys or SFL, even if this thing did decide to rapidly intensify overnight. However, for the northern gulf, if conditions pan out the way they are presented by the models, I would say it is possible.

[Ixolib]

Its probably not likely for the keys or SFL, even if this thing did decide to rapidly intensify overnight. However, for the northern gulf, if conditions pan out the way they are presented by the models, I would say it is possible.

If it pans out the way it's looking, I would say mandatory evacs somewhere would be a definite.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Maybe not a rapied intensification but would make a big difference for the keys and south fla.

[orion]

I heard someone mention Issac is moving into an area of high instability that could really aid in intensification. Does anyone think theres a possibilty for mandatory evacuations down the line

I think there are reasons Isaac could really intensify, but not because of instability. I saved this URL earlier and can't find the original poster, but you can see that the instability in the Gulf is actually lower than 'normal' - the climo is the black line and current is the blue line underneath it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... gmxins.png

~orion

[tolakram]

Good Night Isaac

[brunota2003]

I heard someone mention Issac is moving into an area of high instability that could really aid in intensification. Does anyone think theres a possibilty for mandatory evacuations down the line

Its probably not likely for the keys or SFL, even if this thing did decide to rapidly intensify overnight. However, for the northern gulf, if conditions pan out the way they are presented by the models, I would say it is possible.

It's too late to fully evac the Keys...they made that decision already. Their fate is in the hands of Isaac now. People are parking their vehicles up on the elevated roadways leading to bridges to keep them away from the surge.

[tolakram]

ocean heat content

from: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL092012

[cheezyWXguy]

I heard someone mention Issac is moving into an area of high instability that could really aid in intensification. Does anyone think theres a possibilty for mandatory evacuations down the line

I think there are reasons Isaac could really intensify, but not because of instability. I saved this URL earlier and can't find the original poster, but you can see that the instability in the Gulf is actually lower than 'normal' - the climo is the black line and current is the blue line underneath it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... gmxins.png

~orion

thats true of the gulf as a whole, but GCANE posted a link showing that an area somewhere in the florida straights had cape of 6000j/kg, which is very high if Im correct.

[WeatherGuesser]

Chicago Tribune - ‎13 minutes ago‎



TAMPA—Republican officials on Saturday cancelled most of Monday's planned opening of the Republican National Convention, bowing to concerns about the safety of delegates who were to gather as the tropical storm Isaac barreled into the area.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... 8256.story

[BigB0882]

Latest min obs...

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225730 2151N 07550W 8427 01488 //// +149 //// 144037 039 066 049 01
225800 2150N 07551W 8433 01489 //// +150 //// 170032 039 064 042 01

Translation please?

[monicaei]

Can anyone explain why the new models are showing La?

That's a big jump from the NHC cone?

[lester]

Latest min obs...

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225730 2151N 07550W 8427 01488 //// +149 //// 144037 039 066 049 01
225800 2150N 07551W 8433 01489 //// +150 //// 170032 039 064 042 01

Those sfmr obs are rain contaminated, notice the high rain rates 49 and 42

[lester]

695
URNT12 KNHC 252323
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012
A. 25/23:09:40Z
B. 21 deg 44 min N
076 deg 31 min W
C. 850 mb 1403 m
D. 56 kt
E. 079 deg 43 nm
F. 141 deg 46 kt
G. 080 deg 41 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 15 C / 1523 m
J. 21 C / 1528 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 1609A ISAAC OB 16
MAX FL WIND 46 KT E QUAD 22:56:30Z
;

looks like isaac's core is rebuilding

[climaguy]

Latest min obs...

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225730 2151N 07550W 8427 01488 //// +149 //// 144037 039 066 049 01
225800 2150N 07551W 8433 01489 //// +150 //// 170032 039 064 042 01

Translation please?

Those are data from the Hurricane Hunters flying through the storm. The 066 3rd from the end in the first line is an estimate of surfance winds in knots. Those would be hurricane force winds but, as someone else pointed out, the 049 means they're very rain-contaminated and, therefore, useless.

[orion]

thats true of the gulf as a whole, but GCANE posted a link showing that an area somewhere in the florida straights had cape of 6000j/kg, which is very high if Im correct.

Yeah, anything over 2500 J/Kg is pretty extreme, let alone 6000 J/Kg. Was just looking at GCANE's link, looks like it's associated with that convection near the keys with the highest CAPE a little northwest of it... interesting. Thanks for pointing that out.

~orion

[jinftl]

Within margin of error that far out...as we have seen, even same day tracks for storms can vary alot from any given model run....if there is consistent runs showing a LA landfall and more models also start to show the same, then that is something for sure. We've seen some of these models jump 300 miles every 6 hours. The official forecast is not currently showing a LA landfall is likely- put more stock in the NHC forecast than a model run for sure.

Can anyone explain why the new models are showing La?

That's a big jump from the NHC cone?

[Aric Dunn]

Slowly moving away from the coast.

[tgenius]

Aric still taking a NW heading or is it starting a WNW. I am curious if with the restructure the Windfield will start to even out in all quads vs being North/NE currently? Think it could hit a cane in the next few hrs?

[Steve H.]

Look at the overall structure of Isaac. The "tail" is sucking in from the south to the SW and the NE part of the envelope is tightening up as well. This large system is quickly coming together. Much different from any system I've seen that has gone through Haiti and Cuba in the past 20 years. He could be formidable in the next day or two, RI is not out of the question IMHO.

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