ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[fci]

Don't know about that. Some of the people posting may be very scary looking!!!!

[Tommedic]

Iguess my question is, which if any model was run using anywhere near this location as some point? And where does it show for a track?

[txag2005]

Wow based on the NHC track, this thing is going to likely go over much of DR/Haiti and a good portion of Cuba. Is there any chance a weak TS can survive all of that land?

[cpdaman]

track looks close to how i was imagining it , lets see if there's anything left by the time it crosses cuba

[ronjon]

NHC has a strong tropical storm forecast to come ashore tuesday afternoon near Sarasota FL according to 5 PM advisory.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

[sunnyday]

When was the storm declared Tropical Storm Fay? Isn't it still an invest?

[cpdaman]

fellas what steering layer is best to look at for our new friend fay?

200-700? 250-850?

given the forecast track the worst case scenario i see is that the storm goes south of cuba and then makes a right hook toward the panhandle giving it more time over WATER, a path to the north seems unlikely ...unless any promets think there is much uncertainty with potential for an earlier turn

[txag2005]

When was the storm declared Tropical Storm Fay? Isn't it still an invest?

It was just upgraded by the NHC for the 5 PM EST advisory.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The NHC is sure taking its time with the 3 day cone. I bet they are going nuts with this forecast.

[gatorcane]

they already posted the windfield showing that peninsula fl is currently the threat zone.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The NHC is sure taking its time with the 3 day cone. I bet they are going nuts with this forecast.

Umm..Look up..LOL

[txag2005]

Is the general idea by most that this storm is actually going to survive DR/Haiti and Cuba?

[deltadog03]

WOW...This chick has been anything but....I don't have the words...This is gonna be a hard one. Kudos to the CMC, so far, and now the GFS picking up this...BTW, euro did do this a couple of days ago. Only for a run or 2, but showed this as well.

[Weatherboy1]

This forecast is going to be so tough because 50 miles either way could make a HUGE difference in whether this thing falls apart or remains extremely weak OR turns into a more serious hurricane-level threat. I mean, if it manages to find its way to the bathtub-warm waters off the N coast of Haiti and the DR, it could be a Cat 1, 2, or possibly even 3 threat. If it stays over land the whole time, it could just get ripped to shreds and prove to be just a minimal TS for FL, if that. Glad I'm part of the peanut gallery, not stock at NHC headquarters!

[Aric Dunn]

im intrigued as to why they think the surface circulation is going to go over the 10,000 foot mountains?? i guess do to continuity they have to not worry about the land effects and stay stricly with the pattern.. problem is the llc is not going up and over its either going die or go around ..

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

WOW...This chick has been anything but....I don't have the words...This is gonna be a hard one. Kudos to the CMC, so far, and now the GFS picking up this...BTW, euro did do this a couple of days ago. Only for a run or 2, but showed this as well.

yeah and guess what I see the center trying to move a bit more WNW in the last few frames.......here we go.

[jinftl]

NHC map shows watches and warnings for Turks & Caicos and parts of Bahamas but advisory doesn't mention those...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203113.shtml?5day#contents

[gatorcane]

so I take it a deeper system would mean a track on the eastern side of the cone?

[CrazyC83]

track looks close to how i was imagining it , lets see if there's anything left by the time it crosses cuba

The best case track would be slightly to the right of that, a la Ernesto. Significant deviation either right or left would create a nightmare.