ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Definitely now moving nne!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Looks to be a wobble if anything.

To be fair most models do have a NNE motion from around this point, so wouldn't shock me if that is actually true motion.

[SouthFLTropics]

JohnMoralesNBC624 secs
Bet Florida isn't just being “grazed” by “cone” at 5. Parts of the state should fall fully in it. If I could hand-draw it I’d include S Fla.

It's time to gas up the Genny jlauderdale!!! Fire that puppy up and activate the shield!!!

[RL3AO]

Today would be a good afternoon to start prep in eastern NC and eastern FL. Tomorrow could get crazy after the likely cone shift at 5pm.

[KWT]

Today would be a good afternoon to start prep in eastern NC and eastern FL. Tomorrow could get crazy after the likely cone shift at 5pm.

Yeah especially as the shift could be a fairly decent one if the models continue to shift westwards. If the ECM follows suit, going to be hard to ignore!

[Alyono]

the NNE motion has been called for by every model, even those that shifted to the west

The Gulf of Gonave has the greatest heat content in the world. Won't matter if this weakens some over the Tiburon Peninsula. It will regain its intensity rapidly

[znel52]

Definitely now moving nne!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Looks to be a wobble if anything.

To be fair most models do have a NNE motion from around this point, so wouldn't shock me if that is actually true motion.

Looks like the blob is finally taking it's final breaths. What an awesome feature it was.

[AutoPenalti]

I think by tomorrow morning we should be expecting TS Watches for the FL coast.

[sponger]

Definitely now moving nne!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Looks to be a wobble if anything.

To be fair most models do have a NNE motion from around this point, so wouldn't shock me if that is actually true motion.

Yep following the NHC forecast like a good boy.

[TimeZone]

This storm no doubt has been the signature Atlantic storm since Igor in 2010. Unfortunately this one will effect land.

http://i66.tinypic.com/3451kx3.gif

I think a little storm named Sandy would disagree with you but Igor is definitely up there. Unless you just meant based on looks then absolutely. Matthew has just been amazing to watch and I feel like there will be many more twists and turns before all is said and done.

Sandy was a hideous looking system, and was a minimal major. Comparing that to Matthew is an insult to Matthew.

[ThetaE]

the NNE motion has been called for by every model, even those that shifted to the west

The Gulf of Gonave has the greatest heat content in the world. Won't matter if this weakens some over the Tiburon Peninsula. It will regain its intensity rapidly

As of 12z, I think that's all of them.

And you're right, I'm worried about how strong Matthew could get once in the Bahamas. Heat content is higher there than where he has been, so even if he's slow to move, upwelling won't hinder him like it began to yesterday.

[KWT]

the NNE motion has been called for by every model, even those that shifted to the west

The Gulf of Gonave has the greatest heat content in the world. Won't matter if this weakens some over the Tiburon Peninsula. It will regain its intensity rapidly

Yeah its worrying how primed all of that area is, including to the north of Cuba. Hard to see it being anything other than a 4/5 again once it gets any distance from Cuba.

Its not exactly spending much time over land either, so disruption may be minimal.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783007846858240000

[WPBWeather]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783007846858240000

Hopefully no more records will be broken by Matt!!

[AutoPenalti]

A wobble west means everything at this point past Cuba.

[TimeZone]

What's the population like on the Western tip of Haiti?

[SouthernBreeze]

pretty high population was mentioned the other day

[ThetaE]

What's the population like on the Western tip of Haiti?

I believe Mark Sudduth in a video the other day said about 2 million people live on the Tiburon Peninsula, so it's certainly not a good situation there.

[Weatherboy1]

Well like everyone else, I've been watching this closely. I have to say the concern level is going up today given the shift westward in pretty much every one of the global models. Grand Bahama Island isn't all that far east of us here in Palm Beach County and it wouldn't take much to have a very close brush with Matthew. We'll see what the overnight global models show, but I'm thinking a stop at Publix for a few supplies after work makes a lot of sense - if only to avoid the madness we'll have tomorrow if this westerly trend continues!

[CrazyC83]

It seems that the ECMWF wants to replicate Hurricane Helene in 1958...stops Matthew at the coast and just turns it at the late second...

[SouthDadeFish]

Expect the NHC cone to shift a bit west at 5 pm. Although maybe not as much as you might expect in order to prevent the "windshield wiper effect". It will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro ensembles show. I'm guessing probably something similar to the 00Z runs.