Ivan Advisories

CaluWxBill · #4321 Postby **CaluWxBill** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:21 pm

I think das may be thinking the initial westward movement around Jamaica probably shifted the forecast track about 50 miles to the left. Expect a consensus to move back to the right about that same 50 miles if it continues a WNW or NW movement today.

Website · #4322 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:21 pm

bwstg · #4323 Postby **bwstg** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:21 pm

Jekyhe32210 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Jekyhe32210 wrote:Wow--theres a model on crack for ya

Why do you say that?

This model is obviously basing its track on the current heading---which would make the turn later... But Ivan is crawling and likely to make that turn a lot sooner and sharper than the model is showing---as models showed tampa landfall with Charley, and got a track well right, I would expect Ivan to go well right of the models again... Hopefull they will get back on track...

exactly jekyhe. Don't pay so much attention to the straigth lines. I think by monday the models were traverse this monster more to the right...

Matthew5 · #4324 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:21 pm

Last night the water vapor shown it as a upper level low with no convection. With the tell tail signs of it shooting off a southeastern outflow jet. Today it shows convection forming over it. With it not being so far up in the Atmosphere? This system is also becoming more oreganized. So it is possible http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

Also the convection is forming closer to the center!

Wannabewxman79 · #4325 Postby **Wannabewxman79** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:22 pm

yeah that is just an ULL nothing tropical, but that is not saying it can't turn that way but it is unlikely

GoneWiththeWind · #4326 Postby **GoneWiththeWind** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:23 pm

Was looking at that earlier! How about it? Anyone! I'm a newbie! Answers? It looks a bit like a storm of some sort trying to form out there!

GoneWiththeWind · #4327 Postby **GoneWiththeWind** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:24 pm

Thanks!

otowntiger · #4328 Postby **otowntiger** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:25 pm

Actually it will have to move north some to make it to Texas. It looks like southern Mexico then, eastern Pacific, here we come. If the southwest jogs continue, then watch out Nicaragua/Honduras!

#4329 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:26 pm

Matthew5 wrote:Last night the water vapor shown it as a upper level low with no convection. With the tell tail signs of it shooting off a southeastern outflow jet. Today it shows convection forming over it. With it not being so far up in the Atmosphere? This system is also becoming more oreganized. So it is possible http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

OH...Wonderful!! Another off the coast hit... :crying:

#4330 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:26 pm

They have made a special note about the fl temp here... Know they do notes like these to show something special about a storm. Why did they note this and what does that tell you about Ivan? Basically if I see something like this again ...what should I glean from them pointing out that information?

Matthew5 · #4331 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:26 pm

Also its forming some banding futures. Which are not normal for a upper level low pressure. We will have to see if convection fires over the upper low. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

#4332 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:26 pm

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html

I didn't shift but a degree west in longitude and I get a fairly significant landfall change. Can't get anything right these days... :roll:

But anyhow, Caymans, Isle of Youth, western Cuba, and FL panhandle. Still looking at a Cat 3 for FL, and a strong 4 for the other locations.

#4333 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:27 pm

For the first time some of the models track Ivan thru the Yucatan Channel.

NorthGaWeather · #4334 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:27 pm

bwstg wrote:
Jekyhe32210 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Jekyhe32210 wrote:Wow--theres a model on crack for ya

Why do you say that?

This model is obviously basing its track on the current heading---which would make the turn later... But Ivan is crawling and likely to make that turn a lot sooner and sharper than the model is showing---as models showed tampa landfall with Charley, and got a track well right, I would expect Ivan to go well right of the models again... Hopefull they will get back on track...

exactly jekyhe. Don't pay so much attention to the straigth lines. I think by monday the models were traverse this monster more to the right...

Jek all the models except for maybe the drunken few are shifting west. The high is holding on more then thought. Jek are you wanting this to come to Jacksonville? I sure hope thats not the reason for your comment. Ivan will make a gradual turn not a sharp turn.

ilmc172pilot · #4335 Postby **ilmc172pilot** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:28 pm

I thought looking at the radar it looked like it was a bit well formed and had some nice convection flaring up, seems like the spin is trying to tighten up as well

GoneWiththeWind · #4336 Postby **GoneWiththeWind** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:28 pm

Certainly worth a watch isn't it!

Anonymous · #4337 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:28 pm

No kidding.

Possum Trot · #4338 Postby **Possum Trot** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:28 pm

Power106 out of Kingston reported five deaths at noon.

chris_fit · #4339 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:28 pm

Not feelin it.

MBryant · #4340 Postby **MBryant** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:29 pm

Don't laugh...Nicaragua was my call...LOL

Ivan Advisories

Ivan 13/little west of Cedar Key

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