ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 152050
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[weatherguru18]

That cone looks really familiar...anybody remember Katrina's first cone?

Point being...don't focus down the center.

[hurricanefloyd5]

how big can this thing get like in size wise!!!!!!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

NHC map shows watches and warnings for Turks & Caicos and parts of Bahamas but advisory doesn't mention those...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203113.shtml?5day#contents

They've been assigned:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/152050.shtml

[funster]

More land than water in that forecast. Fay will be primarily a rain threat unless she finds more open water.

[Sabanic]

That cone looks really familiar...anybody remember Katrina's first cone?

Right. We've got a long ways to go, and alot of watching and wondering coming up in the next few days

[Dean4Storms]

I suspect the current LLC will get torn apart but enough of the upper structure will remain to allow for the LLC to once again establish itself west of Haiti once it reaches the Carib. Sea.

[dkommers]

Looking at this topography map (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsro ... la_lrg.jpg) of Hispaniola, the center is about to start hitting the highest peaks. In the past hour it seems like it wobbled a little to the wnw instead of just west. Might it be trying to take the path of least resistance and go north of the mountain range?

[txag2005]

Best case scenario....this thing never becomes a hurricane.

[deltadog03]

This will not shred right through the heart of the DR and Haiti...It will go around the mountains...All she has to really do is travel WNW to get off the island.

[Weatherboy1]

Time for "wobble watch" -- because with this storm more than others, significant wobbles could make a difference between a weak TS and something more. Who wants coffee?

[HURAKAN]

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102380&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

Incredible. On August 7 I said that Fay would form on August 15 on the Western Atlantic Ocean. Fay formed in the Caribbean but very close to the WAO. Woohoo!!!

[gatorcane]

Looking at this topography map (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsro ... la_lrg.jpg) of Hispaniola, the center is about to start hitting the highest peaks. In the past hour it seems like it wobbled a little to the wnw instead of just west. Might it be trying to take the path of least resistance and go north of the mountain range?

Bingo you are right...I don't want that center getting north of Hispaniola.....that would be a no good situation for Bahamas and SE Florida.

I predict some erratic movements over Hispaniola but generally a more WNW movement should ensue now.

[Cat5x]

Oh so now it is a TS but all of this time it was just a wave. Looks like the same system to me and I am sure the people are the ground are feeling the same thing now that they were feeling 1 hour ago. But now there are warnings ??? (upside down smily)

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 152050
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

[cycloneye]

Discussion is late.I guess,they are doing a very carefull discussion,thinking of all the factors ahead.

[HURAKAN]

Oh so now it is a TS but all of this time it was just a wave. Looks like the same system to me and I am sure the people are the ground are feeling the same thing now that they were feeling 1 hour ago. But now there are warnings ??? (upside down smily)

Now has a LLC, before it didn't. No discussion about it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking at this topography map (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsro ... la_lrg.jpg) of Hispaniola, the center is about to start hitting the highest peaks. In the past hour it seems like it wobbled a little to the wnw instead of just west. Might it be trying to take the path of least resistance and go north of the mountain range?

I think a push offshore or a center relocation seems possible in the next 24 hours, because it will likely be influenced by the higher mountains and the deep convection off to the south. But if this does reform or move further south, a track over more water appears likely,with a FL panhandle landfall possible as well.

[Canelaw99]

Time for "wobble watch" -- because with this storm more than others, significant wobbles could make a difference between a weak TS and something more. Who wants coffee?

Just hook me up to a caffeine IV LOL Who's with me?

[HURAKAN]

Fay is so weak that even if the LLC dissipates, the MLC will continue to the Caribbean.