Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Portastorm]

That's great Ntxw! God bless ya. An oldie but a goodie. Was fun reading through that.

[DonWrk]

Ah feels good to go back and read that 2011 thread. The good ole days! Wish I could find some radar snapshots during that event but didn't seem to run across any.

[Tireman4]

Six years ago this evening (Feb 2011) just before the Superbowl there was chatter in the air by Portastorm of Snow Grains in his back yard. The next morning DFW would wake up to 3-6" of fluffy powdery snow that fell overnight in the teens.

Relive the Superbowl outbreak here

Those were the days my friend, we thought they would never end..

[KatDaddy]

Its a nice somewhat chilly SE TX and Upper TX Coast morning which Tireman approves and Wxman57 does not.

[JDawg512]

Six years ago this evening (Feb 2011) just before the Superbowl there was chatter in the air by Portastorm of Snow Grains in his back yard. The next morning DFW would wake up to 3-6" of fluffy powdery snow that fell overnight in the teens.

Relive the Superbowl outbreak here

Those were the days my friend, we thought they would never end..

Could have done without that summer though but it was the last time any sort of significant snow fell in Austin.

[Ntxw]

Quite a strong amplitude of the MJO making through the El Nino phases



California, Texas, and Florida may see anomalous rainfall after mid month. Perhaps with the moving MJO the Alaskan trough will retrograde with it and back to the Aleutians/Bering. We stand a better chance of that than in Alaska.

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, with the mjo going into more amplitude phases, do you expect it to get colder eventually again? I've been hearing that mjo phase 6 begins blocking regime. Will we have a genuine blocking regime like I've been hearing -ao/nao? Or how u see things playing out? Also, I've heard about the ssw that's underway that's supposed to be legit

[Golf7070]

I didn't know if this was rumors or did it have merit to it. Just want a prolonged cold spell

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, with the mjo going into more amplitude phases, do you expect it to get colder eventually again? I've been hearing that mjo phase 6 begins blocking regime. Will we have a genuine blocking regime like I've been hearing -ao/nao? Or how u see things playing out? Also, I've heard about the ssw that's underway that's supposed to be legit

It can get just cold enough in a pattern with -AO. It looks legit from SSW and MJO is legit. Flow is fast though the north Pacific isn't cooperating. Just our luck right, PNA is going to blowtorch Canada..always something.

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, with the mjo going into more amplitude phases, do you expect it to get colder eventually again? I've been hearing that mjo phase 6 begins blocking regime. Will we have a genuine blocking regime like I've been hearing -ao/nao? Or how u see things playing out? Also, I've heard about the ssw that's underway that's supposed to be legit

It can get just cold enough in a pattern with -AO. It looks legit from SSW and MJO is legit. Flow is fast though the north Pacific isn't cooperating. Just our luck right, PNA is going to blowtorch Canada..always something.

What im saying though is if we get this SSW and the mjo progresses, will that be a reason for one to remain optimistic? Or is winter over even if those pan out? Trying to understand all this lol.

A friend sent me this ntxw: Yea it looks legitimate for sure with tropical pacific forcing... We are about to get some pretty serious wave 1 (displacement) forcing onto the PV with a big scandinavian ridge and deep north pacific-arctic vortex

[Tireman4]

Its a nice somewhat chilly SE TX and Upper TX Coast morning which Tireman approves and Wxman57 does not.

Yes. One 20 mile bike ride down, another at 4 and run at 5.

[bubba hotep]

Ntxw, with the mjo going into more amplitude phases, do you expect it to get colder eventually again? I've been hearing that mjo phase 6 begins blocking regime. Will we have a genuine blocking regime like I've been hearing -ao/nao? Or how u see things playing out? Also, I've heard about the ssw that's underway that's supposed to be legit

It can get just cold enough in a pattern with -AO. It looks legit from SSW and MJO is legit. Flow is fast though the north Pacific isn't cooperating. Just our luck right, PNA is going to blowtorch Canada..always something.

What im saying though is if we get this SSW and the mjo progresses, will that be a reason for one to remain optimistic? Or is winter over even if those pan out? Trying to understand all this lol.

A friend sent me this ntxw: Yea it looks legitimate for sure with tropical pacific forcing... We are about to get some pretty serious wave 1 (displacement) forcing onto the PV with a big scandinavian ridge and deep north pacific-arctic vortex

Randomness of the atmosphere is reason enough to remain optimistic that things will circle around to climo at some point. The biggest problem is the current MJO propagation, as modeled, favors +PNA heading into mid month. Once past that it then takes time for the pattern to shift, lag time from +PNA can be as long as 20 days but we just need to get back to neutral. Then SSW? I just can't put any stock in that given how hard it is to forecast, what if any impacts it would have on the lower atmosphere, and then when and where any changes would show up in the sensible wx.

[bubba hotep]

This could end up working out pretty good for Texas, rain wise with some high PWAT pooling just off of Texas in the Gulf.

[bubba hotep]

First signs of a pattern change starting to show up in the longer range on the models? It looks like peak +PNA could be in the D8 - 12 range (ensembles are actually closer to D8 - 10 but tend to be too fast) with that giving way to a WC trough and wetter conditions across Texas by D15. Going from +PNA to neutral in 5 to 7 days is about what would be expected when looking at lag times, always could be faster or slower or never show up and just more +PNA lol.

[Ntxw]

That could work, keep the pattern retrograding with a moving MJO.

[gto67]

I don't know how to copy a link so one can open it. With that being said, it is a link to a TEXAS GROUND and WXMAN57 you will like it.

https://www.facebook.com/U.S.SevereWeat ... 67/?type=3

[wxman57]

I don't know how to copy a link so one can open it. With that being said, it is a link to a TEXAS GROUND and WXMAN57 you will like it.

https://www.facebook.com/U.S.SevereWeat ... 67/?type=3

Yes, I've seen that. I'm still not seeing anything to say "Texas Pete" (the snake) is wrong. No sign of significant cold down here. We may have seen our last freeze of the winter in Houston, though I wouldn't bet my life on it just yet.

[South Texas Storms]

Happy National Weatherperson's Day everyone!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weatherperson's_Day

[Tireman4]

Happy Weatherperson's Day to all the mets that congregate here.


More sobbing at the Winter that could have been:

Today
A 30 percent chance of showers. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight
A 20 percent chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind 5 to 15 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Saturday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

[BTAYLOR5021]

Is winter really over? This is depressing....the last good winter was 14-15 that ended with a March snow storm...I remember 07-08 winter was usually warm until we have a 2 snow events in the first week of March 08. I also read that by the year 2100 Dfw will average only 7-9 Freezes ...I'm a true winter love and grew up in Marshall texas where snow was common every season....now it seems to be a thing of the past..can someone please tell me if winter is over?...I'm wondering if warm winters transition to cooler summers.