ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

I knew this was a discussion by Forecaster Stewart even without looking at the bottom - Love his discussions.

He's a blast to talk tropical meteorology with. One of my favorite things this summer was chatting with him.

[chaser1]

I don't think 99L warranted the designation of depression when it did. I don't think we're seeing any level of organization at this point that would better make the case for it being a depression than we've seen at at least one or two previous junctures during this systems life-span. Thats not to say that things will not change, but thus far the shear and/or dry air have not.

[Aric Dunn]

everyone having fun yet ?

[AxaltaRacing24]

I don't think 99L warranted the designation of depression when it did. I don't think we're seeing any level of organization at this point that would better make the case for it being a depression than we've seen at at least one or two previous junctures during this systems life-span. Thats not to say that things will not change, but thus far the shear and/or dry air have not.

One reason why it is now TD #9. A LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

I knew this was a discussion by Forecaster Stewart even without looking at the bottom - Love his discussions.

He's a blast to talk tropical meteorology with. One of my favorite things this summer was chatting with him.

I wish they all wrote like him.. would have so many less questions..

so we all know the issues before us ? so no squabbling ?

[Aric Dunn]

oh look irregardless of the new data .. the models are the same.. only slight track and speed differences. overall thinking the same.. hwrf can not be throw out.. its been nearly 3 days of the same solution..

[Kingarabian]

oh look irregardless of the new data .. the models are the same.. only slight track and speed differences. overall thinking the same.. hwrf can not be throw out.. its been nearly 3 days of the same solution..

Aric, I think the HWRF can definitely be thrown out. I remember it repeatedly showing Hurricane Kilo hitting Hawaii as a cat.5 last year. Showed it for 72 hours. Never materialized.

[Aric Dunn]

oh look irregardless of the new data .. the models are the same.. only slight track and speed differences. overall thinking the same.. hwrf can not be throw out.. its been nearly 3 days of the same solution..

Aric, I think the HWRF can definitely be thrown out. I remember it repeatedly showing Hurricane Kilo hitting Hawaii as a cat.5 last year. Showed it for 72 hours. Never materialized.

re read the discussion..

also even the gfdl has now for two runs deepened despite the issues the global models are "possibly" showing. also the hwrf and gfdl have been on both sides sometimes they show nothing and it turns out to be a major impact and other times it they show a major impact and nothing happens... and well a lot of the times they are fairly close.. the fact that all the models have given (on more than one occasion) a very strong system gives credence to the models that have been very consistent with a stronger system. just 2 days ago the euro had run after run of a cat 3 into the SAME AREA. its completely plausible.

[Kingarabian]

oh look irregardless of the new data .. the models are the same.. only slight track and speed differences. overall thinking the same.. hwrf can not be throw out.. its been nearly 3 days of the same solution..

Aric, I think the HWRF can definitely be thrown out. I remember it repeatedly showing Hurricane Kilo hitting Hawaii as a cat.5 last year. Showed it for 72 hours. Never materialized.

re read the discussion..

also even the gfdl has now for two runs deepened despite the issues the global models are "possibly" showing. also the hwrf and gfdl have been on both sides sometimes they show nothing and it turns out to be a major impact and other times it they show a major impact and nothing happens... and well a lot of the times they are fairly close.. the fact that all the models have given (on more than one occasion) a very strong system gives credence to the models that have been very consistent with a stronger system. just 2 days ago the euro had run after run of a cat 3 into the SAME AREA. its completely plausible.

Fair enough.

[Aric Dunn]

man that thing dropped way south.. nearly out of the shear... time will tell whats going to happen shortly..

[artist]

URNT12 KWBC 290547 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 29/05:36:18Z
B. 23 deg 15 min N 083 deg 31 min W
C. 925 mb 770 m
D. 27 kt
E. 009 deg 100 nm
F. 096 deg 29 kt
G. 009 deg 102 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 22 C / 794 m
J. 23 C / 780 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 9
O. 0.1 / 3 nm
P. NOAA3 0609A CYCLONE OB 03
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL WIND 29 KT 009 / 102 NM 05:07:44Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 024 / 34 NM FROM FL CNTR

Recon is there

[Blinhart]

Is the center even still North of Cuba or has it moved South of Cuba?

[AutoPenalti]

Can't believe this can still be an SFL concern, if it's dropped even more south.

[Hammy]

Is the center even still North of Cuba or has it moved South of Cuba?

Doesn't even look closed based on latest data--I think NHC was premature in upgrading this and it doesn't even qualify at the moment, and honestly I don't think it did earlier today either.

[Aric Dunn]

still a slightly s out west motion even without convection.. ridging may be stronger trough more levels. . at this rate it will be in the Yucatan channel by morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Is the center even still North of Cuba or has it moved South of Cuba?

Doesn't even look closed based on latest data--I think NHC was premature in upgrading this and it doesn't even qualify at the moment, and honestly I don't think it did earlier today either.

oh come on. the data was there from multiple passes met every definition of a TC even now there is still a closed circ. though lacking convection. but how many many many many many times have we seen this. its nothing new. A TC is a TC regardless if one does not agree with definitions.

[Alyono]

Is the center even still North of Cuba or has it moved South of Cuba?

Doesn't even look closed based on latest data--I think NHC was premature in upgrading this and it doesn't even qualify at the moment, and honestly I don't think it did earlier today either.

It's because it's hanging out on a Cuban Beach

[Aric Dunn]

it has nearly crossed the shear axis... clearly seen in sat. any new convective burst will likely persist. the turning is likely coming very soon.

[Alyono]

looking at satellite, the low does look better defined

[Aric Dunn]

looking at satellite, the low does look better defined

low level cloud deck is starting to thicken. shear on the west side has dropped to under 10 kts... assuming the circ can produce enough convergence convection will happen very soon..