Ivan Advisories

Sean in New Orleans · #4341 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:29 pm

I notice all of these childish comments coming from all new posters. This is sad. Hopefully, many of you will come to recognize the general mood of this board over time and it consists of intelligent analysis, and opinions--weighing different options, and respecting others and listening because of how they feel. With that said, everything is shifting West and it will probably wind up between Mobile and Panama City when it comes to landfall, IMHO.

Anonymous · #4342 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:30 pm

das...you are some foolish.

#4343 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:30 pm

Ivan is getting squeezed.

As mentinoed in the other post on this topic...the northerly flow piling up to the north of Ivan is what halted the northward movement. It looks...to my tired untrained eyes...that the ridging is starting to pile up to the west of the hurricane as well:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

This sinking motion observed there is spilling over the outflow and not appears to be piling up to the west . This may not last very long and could very well come to an end soon...but this blocking would explain why the hurricane has slowed way down.

If the mid/upper system (and there is evidence that it is not strictly an upper system...look at the convection associated with it) does not lift out or weaken it will start to clear out some of the ridging to the north of the hurricane and allow it to spring north some.

Not saying it will cause this to head for Miami or anything...because I'm not...but I am trying to explain why the hurricane has slowed and jogged a little to the north today.

These features are going to be very interesting to watch over the coming hours...

MW

NorthGaWeather · #4344 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:30 pm

Thats if they find a temp outside the eye of more than indicated on I.

brudeb · #4345 Postby **brudeb** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:30 pm

Thank you, that makes it clearer for me.

CaluWxBill · #4346 Postby **CaluWxBill** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:30 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:
bwstg wrote:
Jekyhe32210 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Jekyhe32210 wrote:Wow--theres a model on crack for ya

Why do you say that?

This model is obviously basing its track on the current heading---which would make the turn later... But Ivan is crawling and likely to make that turn a lot sooner and sharper than the model is showing---as models showed tampa landfall with Charley, and got a track well right, I would expect Ivan to go well right of the models again... Hopefull they will get back on track...

exactly jekyhe. Don't pay so much attention to the straigth lines. I think by monday the models were traverse this monster more to the right...

Jek all the models except for maybe the drunken few are shifting west. The high is holding on more then thought. Jek are you wanting this to come to Jacksonville? I sure hope thats not the reason for your comment. Ivan will make a gradual turn not a sharp turn.

I can assure that is not the reason for his comments. I think like some have said slower movement, a turn towards the NW today will help balance the shift out on upcoming model runs back to the right.

Matthew5 · #4347 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:31 pm

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

It shows Ivan heading at New Orleans! :eek:

das8929 · #4348 Postby **das8929** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:32 pm

Thats one model, and it is notoriously the most westward.

bwstg · #4349 Postby **bwstg** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:32 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I notice all of these childish comments coming from all new posters. This is sad. Hopefully, many of you will come to recognize the general mood of this board over time and it consists of intelligent analysis, and opinions--weighing different options, and respecting others and listening because of how they feel. With that said, everything is shifting West and it will probably wind up between Mobile and Panama City when it comes to landfall, IMHO.

IMHO, everyone here is fishing and sooner or later your gonna catch a break. IMHO...happy fishing...

Matthew5 · #4350 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:33 pm

Watch the trend!

air360 · #4351 Postby **air360** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:33 pm

yes...just out of curiosity...IF something happened to form...what kinda affects would that cause on Ivan???

Anonymous · #4352 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:35 pm

das8929 wrote:Thats one model, and it is notoriously the most westward.

I think this slow movement and temporary westward movement around Jamaica has caused errors in the models

ilmc172pilot · #4353 Postby **ilmc172pilot** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:36 pm

good question, can you imagine double storm hitting at the same time?.....or maybe ivan absorbing this one.......I think that this will form myself, it just has all the right stuff

Sean in New Orleans · #4354 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:36 pm

Calm down--local mets have advised us here in New Orleans that some models, today, will likely be over the city and to not get too concerned with these models. The trend is West and the happy medium will be the end story, IMO. Let's just see how far West Ivan actually does go this time around.

MomH · #4355 Postby **MomH** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:36 pm

Daughter and I saw it last night before we went to bed about 1:30 am EDT. In fact there was another smaller area slightly east and north of the current one. Both had very clear counterclockwise motion. Earlier this morning one of the sat. loops showed what looked to me as shear from Ivan being picked up by the new convection. Be it known -- I know nothing about weather forecasting -- am a newbie to this site. Just reporting my observations.

MomH · #4356 Postby **MomH** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:37 pm

Daughter and I saw it last night before we went to bed about 1:30 am EDT. In fact there was another smaller area slightly east and north of the current one. Both had very clear counterclockwise motion. Earlier this morning one of the sat. loops showed what looked to me as shear from Ivan being picked up by the new convection. Be it known -- I know nothing about weather forecasting -- am a newbie to this site. Just reporting my observations.

air360 · #4357 Postby **air360** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:38 pm

yea, i agree...i dont know enough to say wether i think it will for or not...but it has alot of features that appear to be a lil to tropical than normal...hmmm....ivan into panhandle of florida....this system into carolinas..all meeting over the SE....WOW..THAT WOULD BE CRAZY!!!

**not a forecast...just an imagination of "what if"**

Innotech · #4358 Postby **Innotech** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:38 pm

Matthew5 wrote:http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi?time=2004091112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

It shows Ivan heading at New Orleans!

no, that would be heading directly to Lafayette

#4359 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:39 pm

o.k......EXPERT opinions needed here...PLEASE!!

M.WATKINS.....SOMEBODY????

rockyman · #4360 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:42 pm

Either I'm nuts, or someone changed the title...I don't remember saying thru the Yucatan Channel...even though that is right. Please tell me I haven't lost my mind.

Ivan Advisories

...Reason for Ivan's Slowdown...

Holy $$%@ The new 12z Cmc! New Orleans Bound?

Re: Holy $$%@ The new 12z Cmc! New Orleans Bound?

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