Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

GFS definitely by far the most bullish of all models. Still think it's a bit too extreme based on other models but wow if that verifies.

From the 18z Euro and the trends of the 0z guidance I wouldn't discount it. As noted earlier some of the leading cold air has made it into the US this afternoon to help some of the guidance.

[Brent]

this is gonna be insane if this is even close to right

[Haris]

GFS definitely by far the most bullish of all models. Still think it's a bit too extreme based on other models but wow if that verifies.

From the 18z Euro and the trends of the 0z guidance I wouldn't discount it. As noted earlier some of the leading cold air has made it into the US this afternoon to help some of the guidance.

Yeah RGEM got wetter so nothing is ruled out. I think we wait til tomorrow still regardless. Low still jumping around. For now take the middle option and go with it

[SnowintheFalls]

:double: this is gonna be insane if this is even close to right

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hfDqp9y/2-FB3-BBA1-ADE3-4-C8-B-A630-8151-E650-BF4-A.png [/url]

While highly unlikely, I would take that 10 inches and be good for the year!

[Brent]

:double: this is gonna be insane if this is even close to right

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hfDqp9y/2-FB3-BBA1-ADE3-4-C8-B-A630-8151-E650-BF4-A.png [/url]

While highly unlikely, I would take that 10 inches and be good for the year!

It's probably on the high end but I'm not so sure it's totally unlikely up here anyway probably less so down there

[TheProfessor]

Saw some early CMC maps, looks like it's trending towards the GFS.

[Ntxw]

Look at the progress we have made the past several days for midday Thursday.

[txtwister78]

GFS definitely by far the most bullish of all models. Still think it's a bit too extreme based on other models but wow if that verifies.

From the 18z Euro and the trends of the 0z guidance I wouldn't discount it. As noted earlier some of the leading cold air has made it into the US this afternoon to help some of the guidance.

Definitely not discounting it, but by far it's the most bullish with widespread QPF/accumulations compared to other models (which break this down in two waves). But as I've said, best rule of thumb is toss out the extremes and go with the middle for now is probably our best bet.

I think the table is already set though and so I would completely agree with you on that. Just a question of what we're putting on it and how much now.

[DFWLady]

Hey everyone! Been awhile since I posted but I've been stalking the page for a couple days now! Thought I'd say hello and I hope everyone stays safe and warm! I'm really hoping not to lose power here in Rockwall. I have already prepared just in case! The models have been crazy to watch the last few days! Interested to see tomorrow night's!

[Brent]

CMC yeah that says 12 over me

[Snowman67]

Just saying...those members keep expanding south with every run. But still some things to watch no question as mentioned earlier.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643652000/1643911200-EYzsnUPdMj4.png

I can just picture the heat miser standing all bundled up pushing his hardest to keep the wall up just North of the Houston area.

No need, my wall is holding. Latest two GFS runs keep Houston warmer than last week. No freeze. I let enough air come down to provide a nice ice storm for my D-FW friends.

So are you signaling the "All Clear" for all of Harris County?

[wxman57]

Remember, the Tropical Tidbits "snow" map contains sleet, too. Here are the maps of freezing rain, sleet, and snow from the 00Z GFS. Let's see, 3/4 inch of snow followed by 1/2 of an inch of sleet then a dusting of snow in the D-FW area. Don't plan on driving anywhere up there from Thursday morning to the following week sometime. Hope you keep your lights on.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZR1.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXIP1.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXSN1.png

[wxman57]

So are you signaling the "All Clear" for all of Harris County?

We'll be fine down here. Nothing suggests otherwise. Maybe a hard freeze up there in Tomball, but nothing like last February.

[Snowman67]

So are you signaling the "All Clear" for all of Harris County?

We'll be fine down here. Nothing suggests otherwise. Maybe a hard freeze up there in Tomball, but nothing like last February.

I was actually asking more about any frozen precipitation in far northwestern Harris county.

[Ntxw]

So are you signaling the "All Clear" for all of Harris County?

We'll be fine down here. Nothing suggests otherwise. Maybe a hard freeze up there in Tomball, but nothing like last February.

I know you're not leaving for this 'event' and only surrounding yourself with space heaters while your central air is up to the max but...

Doesn't this look pleasing?

[cheezyWXguy]

These southward trends observed tonight on the NAM, GFS, and CMC are good for the metroplex. Still not out of the woods, and would be very problematic if those freezing rain maps pan out, but each run seems to show faster progression past freezing rain into sleet. Man I hope this continues

[HockeyTx82]

Remember, the Tropical Tidbits "snow" map contains sleet, too. Here are the maps of freezing rain, sleet, and snow from the 00Z GFS. Let's see, 3/4 inch of snow followed by 1/2 of an inch of sleet then a dusting of snow in the D-FW area. Don't plan on driving anywhere up there from Thursday morning to the following week sometime. Hope you keep your lights on.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZR1.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXIP1.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXSN1.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZR1.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXIP1.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXSN1.png

Did you mean freezing rain? 3/4"

[ElectricStorm]

The text in the winter storm watch here mentions totals of 1-6 inches possible. Definitely a broad range but that goes to show how tiny little differences in track and speed of the storm can be the difference between a small event and a major snowstorm. Considering the model runs, I would not be surprised at all if we end up on the higher side of that estimate. Luckily, it appears the freezing rain risk doesn't appear to be too much here, although any amount of ice can be a disaster. Can't say the same for parts of TX though as some of those model runs are downright nasty.

The good news is that it will only be brutally cold for a few days instead of half a month like last year so at least impacts won't last near as long this time. Stay safe out there everyone. I'm personally looking forward to likely having a few days off from class

[dpep4]

Let's see, 3/4 inch of snow followed by 1/2 of an inch of sleet then a dusting of snow

Did you mean freezing rain? 3/4"

"He likes snow." [/Blazing Saddles]

[Brent]

The text in the winter storm watch here mentions totals of 1-6 inches possible. Definitely a broad range but that goes to show how tiny little differences in track and speed of the storm can be the difference between a small event and a major snowstorm. Considering the model runs, I would not be surprised at all if we end up on the higher side of that estimate. Luckily, it appears the freezing rain risk doesn't appear to be too much here, although any amount of ice can be a disaster. Can't say the same for parts of TX though as some of those model runs are downright nasty.

The good news is that it will only be brutally cold for a few days instead of half a month like last year so at least impacts won't last near as long this time. Stay safe out there everyone. I'm personally looking forward to likely having a few days off from class

I've been surprised to see Norman more conservative than Tulsa tbh a few days ago Tulsa had said this would likely be an advisory level event and they had been super conservative during the dusting a few weeks ago then yesterday their first map had 8 inches here then this morning they had up to 10 inches in the initial watch (down to 7 now) but they admit in the AFD they are being conservative. The ceiling is definitely high for sure. I'm not gonna be surprised if someone in this area hits double digits

The news had 8 earlier here but he tried to act like it's overdone but I'm not so convinced especially if we changeover faster than expected (which I have a hard time believing the sleet lasts very long with the heavy precip)

I'm also still wondering if we can approach blizzard conditions for a time Wednesday night. The wind is definitely gonna be up. It's gonna be a very interesting storm

And yes I'm glad the cold won't be as prolonged as last February