ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021304
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 19 20110802
125430 1458N 06402W 9772 00271 //// +240 //// 191003 004 018 003 01
125500 1459N 06402W 9770 00273 //// +242 //// 197004 004 018 002 05
125530 1501N 06402W 9770 00274 //// +243 //// 217002 002 018 001 01
125600 1502N 06402W 9769 00273 //// +242 //// 208002 002 017 001 01
125630 1504N 06402W 9772 00272 //// +240 //// 185002 002 018 001 01
125700 1506N 06402W 9772 00272 //// +233 //// 187002 003 022 003 05
125730 1507N 06402W 9772 00271 //// +240 //// 182002 003 017 002 01
125800 1509N 06402W 9772 00271 //// +240 //// 186003 003 013 004 01
125830 1510N 06402W 9770 00273 //// +240 //// 175002 002 016 001 01
125900 1512N 06402W 9770 00272 //// +240 //// 091002 003 014 001 01
125930 1513N 06402W 9770 00272 //// +240 //// 069003 003 011 002 01
130000 1515N 06402W 9772 00272 //// +244 //// 072002 002 011 002 01
130030 1516N 06401W 9772 00270 //// +241 //// 087002 002 015 002 01
130100 1518N 06401W 9772 00270 //// +240 //// 118003 003 019 001 01
130130 1520N 06401W 9772 00271 //// +240 //// 139004 005 017 001 01
130200 1521N 06401W 9768 00275 //// +240 //// 111005 006 018 001 01
130230 1523N 06401W 9770 00273 //// +240 //// 105005 006 014 001 01
130300 1524N 06401W 9770 00274 //// +244 //// 083005 006 017 002 01
130330 1526N 06401W 9772 00272 //// +244 //// 085008 009 016 002 05
130400 1528N 06401W 9773 00271 //// +240 //// 087011 012 016 002 05
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

not sure the rules on reposting tweets (i will delete this post if they are taboo) but JB just had about thirty tweets in ten minutes...some of the hilites

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
If you go back to loop, and then stick recon psn on, you will see my concern, that this is in process of re-orgnazing and could deepen fast
21 minutes ago
Joe Bastardi
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Not nitpicking, but reporting actual obs is as important as making the forecast. We had 64, then 63.7 its been at 63.4 and still is
22 minutes ago
Joe Bastardi
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Sorry, but it weirds me out, because DATA DOES MEAN SOMETHING. In this case, storm is re-organizing under tstorms, and may deepen faster
23 minutes ago
Joe Bastardi
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
What I cant understand is why put it somewhere ( 63.7) when you have the report its back further? And the speed is slower too.
24 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Joe Bastardi
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
TPC STILL TOO FAR WEST! RECON is flying around in calm area at 15.3 and 63.4 now for an hour. This may be crawling now

[TheBurn]

[Aric Dunn]

Note that the center is on the western edge of that convective burst, indicating Emily is still fighting strong low-level flow that is resulting in low-level wind shear. This keeps the center out west of the convection. It needs to slow down to intensify.

But it's not as rough as yesterday! LLC and convection are closer than they were.

That's true, much better than yesterday. It does appear to be slowing down now, which should allow for intensification.

the convective burst is showing on long range out of PR. Center is just visible...

[SouthFloridawx]

Wouldn't this show the true disorganization of the llc? Or is this the result of an outflow boundary or something?

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SouthFloridawx]

Here's another one on the South to North pass in the Western Quad.

[Bocadude85]

Well I guess we will see another shift east in the NHC track at 11am since the tvcn is further east. I am starting to think Emily may pass Florida well to the east... but just my opinion of course. On a side note the NWS Miami is saying TS conditions possible Friday night and Saturday for my area.

TCVN is a consensus model takes into account all the other models. it basically is the middle. NHC went left of the TCVN this morning.

Oh I was not aware the NHC went left of the TCVN this morning

[Aric Dunn]

Well I guess we will see another shift east in the NHC track at 11am since the tvcn is further east. I am starting to think Emily may pass Florida well to the east... but just my opinion of course. On a side note the NWS Miami is saying TS conditions possible Friday night and Saturday for my area.

TCVN is a consensus model takes into account all the other models. it basically is the middle. NHC went left of the TCVN this morning.

Oh I was not aware the NHC went left of the TCVN this morning

No worries. The NHC uses the models as reference but in the end use there better judgement.

[HurricaneWarning92]

what are some good sites where i can watch the visible satellite presentation? im having problems going to the NHC site.

[Aric Dunn]

ITs kind of hard to track this... every convective burst the center reforms near it... or migrates.. wish something would just stick.. lol

[artist]

what are some good sites where i can watch the visible satellite presentation? im having problems going to the NHC site.

try this -
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[bella_may]

I have a feeling the longer this thing moves due west the further the models will shift to the west

[Aric Dunn]

I have a feeling the longer this thing moves due west the further the models will shift to the west

That is exactly right !

[Bad_Hurricane]

URNT15 KNHC 021315
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 20 20110802
130430 1529N 06400W 9773 00271 //// +238 //// 095010 011 /// /// 05
130500 1529N 06359W 9768 00276 //// +235 //// 077008 008 022 001 01
130530 1529N 06357W 9777 00266 //// +233 //// 087005 007 022 001 01
130600 1529N 06356W 9770 00272 //// +240 //// 084004 005 020 002 05
130630 1529N 06354W 9772 00271 //// +240 //// 069004 005 020 002 05
130700 1529N 06353W 9768 00275 //// +240 //// 066004 005 /// /// 05
130730 1529N 06351W 9770 00271 //// +240 //// 072002 004 /// /// 05
130800 1529N 06349W 9768 00273 //// +240 //// 077002 002 /// /// 05
130830 1529N 06348W 9769 00273 //// +237 //// 077003 004 /// /// 05
130900 1528N 06346W 9772 00270 //// +228 //// 030003 004 /// /// 05
130930 1528N 06345W 9769 00272 //// +233 //// 017003 005 /// /// 05
131000 1527N 06344W 9770 00271 //// +238 //// 022004 005 /// /// 05
131030 1526N 06342W 9770 00271 //// +240 //// 018003 005 /// /// 05
131100 1525N 06341W 9769 00272 //// +239 //// 030002 004 /// /// 05
131130 1524N 06339W 9772 00269 //// +236 //// 021004 005 /// /// 05
131200 1524N 06338W 9770 00272 //// +237 //// 026004 005 /// /// 05
131230 1523N 06336W 9770 00273 //// +236 //// 044004 005 /// /// 05
131300 1522N 06335W 9768 00276 //// +233 //// 082008 011 /// /// 05
131330 1521N 06334W 9774 00271 //// +234 //// 085011 012 /// /// 05
131400 1520N 06333W 9770 00274 //// +230 //// 080013 015 /// /// 05
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Aric,there is the center.

[SouthFloridawx]

The Southwest quad appears to be very disorganized. Notice how all the winds in the other quads are more uniform in nature.

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Aric Dunn]

Whats the deal with the small alpha pattern..?

[GCANE]

Looks like the center is being repositioned east under the remnants of the OT.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL052011&starting_image=2011AL05_4KMSRBDC_201108020545.jpg