Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Quixotic]

If I’m mistaken, please....let me know...

Last I heard, all the data, including the Euro, comes from the US. A met might know but how has the shutdown affected every model?

Not political because last I heard, the euro uses the US data to perform their projections.

[Brent]

flizzard watch next Wednesday on the FV GFS The GFS and CMC are not as excited around here

[Cerlin]

flizzard watch next Wednesday on the FV GFS The GFS and CMC are not as excited around here

http://i64.tinypic.com/2n219g1.png

At least we have the Freaking Vomit 3 GFS on our side

[Cpv17]

flizzard watch next Wednesday on the FV GFS The GFS and CMC are not as excited around here

http://i64.tinypic.com/2n219g1.png

At least we have the Freaking Vomit 3 GFS on our side

0z GFS trended slightly westward as well with the precip. I’m kinda grasping at straws at this point though.

[missygirl810]

flizzard watch next Wednesday on the FV GFS The GFS and CMC are not as excited around here

http://i64.tinypic.com/2n219g1.png

I swear this year it has pretty much called for something for every Wednesday lol

[JMoses3419]

At the moment, I take anything the FV GFS says with a rock of salt the size of the state for which this thread exists. It is, I believe, still a non-operational model and should be treated as such.

That said, I think the cold air stays entrenched for sure across the eastern 1/2 or so of the nation and at least north Texas gets in on some of that cold air. Houston is probably stretching it.

[Brent]

not much on the Euro though there is a very narrow zone in Central TX that gets a dusting up to an inch NW of Austin Wednesday. DFW dry

[JMoses3419]

If I’m mistaken, please....let me know...

Last I heard, all the data, including the Euro, comes from the US. A met might know but how has the shutdown affected every model?

Not political because last I heard, the euro uses the US data to perform their projections.

This is not correct.

The Euro data comes out of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, which is based in Reading, England. They may use data from American observations, soundings, etc to forecast for the US, just as the NAM, GFS, and other models run from NCEP do for the American continent -- but that's where its involvement with America ends.

As for NCEP, if the office is staffed, they're not getting paid, just like NWS staffers who are launching the upper air balloons, collecting observations, and issuing forecasts, watches and warnings. The models are still running pretty much on time.

[Ralph's Weather]

Down to 23 here with still a couple hours of cooling left. Forecast was 29 by NWS. I believe this ties the lowest of the season.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Down to 23 here with still a couple hours of cooling left. Forecast was 29 by NWS. I believe this ties the lowest of the season.

27 here this morning. Slight bust.

[Quixotic]

If I’m mistaken, please....let me know...

Last I heard, all the data, including the Euro, comes from the US. A met might know but how has the shutdown affected every model?

Not political because last I heard, the euro uses the US data to perform their

This is not correct.

The Euro data comes out of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, which is based in Reading, England. They may use data from American observations, soundings, etc to forecast for the US, just as the NAM, GFS, and other models run from NCEP do for the American continent -- but that's where its involvement with America ends.

As for NCEP, if the office is staffed, they're not getting paid, just like NWS staffers who are launching the upper air balloons, collecting observations, and issuing forecasts, watches and warnings. The models are still running pretty much on time.

Okey doke. Thanks for that.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Weak high pressure over the area has allowed for calm winds and
clear skies. VFR conditions with light winds are expected through
the next 24-30 hours.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 339 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...
Surface temperatures as of 3 AM were in the upper 30s along the
coast to mid 20s in our northern counties, with dewpoints in the mid
20s to low 30s region wide. Model guidance has struggled to keep up
with observations, remaining a few degrees too warm. Trended colder
than guidance in the short term, with high temperatures today
expected to rise into the mid to upper 50s, with sunny skies
overhead.

Overnight temperatures will fall into the 30s once more, with
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s along the immediate coast. Some
of the short term guidance such as the TT WRF, ARW, and NMM show
light precipitation late tonight into Friday morning tracking
south, mainly north of I-10 and west of I-45. Forecast soundings
show some saturation in the 850-700mb layer, with a very dry
pocket of air aloft. This precipitation also looks in phase with
the right entrance region of the 250mb jet streak that is
overhead, helping to provide some extra lift. With such profiles,
the possibility of light rain or freezing drizzle could be
possible during this time frame. Confidence is low given the
trends in recent short term model runs and the lack of moisture.
Therefore, have left the mention of light rain or freezing drizzle
out of the forecast for now but this will be worth keeping an eye
on as we move into the afternoon.

High pressure shifts east of the area tomorrow. Winds tonight will
be mostly out of the SE before turning NE behind a dry weak frontal
boundary that slides through SE TX early Friday morning. This should
allow high temperatures Friday to be a touch colder than today by
only a few degrees. By the afternoon hours, partly cloudy skies
return to the forecast and moisture values will be on the rise as
winds turn back onshore by Friday evening.

A coastal trough will slide north over the lower to middle Texas
coast late Saturday into Sunday morning increasing our chance for
showers over our southwestern zones such as Wharton, Jackson, and
Matagorda counties. Additionally, another weak dry frontal
boundary will shift into the region early Sunday, acting to turn
winds once again out of the northeast. Following the coastal
trough, our next best chance for precipitation will be late Monday
into Tuesday morning, when another strong cold front swings
through SE TX. Precipitable water values increase to near 0.75
inches and with strong upper-level forcing behind the boundary,
anticipate another line of showers to slide through the region.
Most recent model runs show the Canadian solution to be the
fastest and wettest with this front, while the GFS and ECMWF trail
behind by about six hours, placing the front just offshore by
sunrise Tuesday morning. ECMWF remains the driest with this
feature. Temperatures behind this system will once again fall to
near freezing Tuesday night into Wednesday, but do look to remain
above hard freeze criteria at this time.

Hathaway

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should continue to decrease this morning so we will
drop any advisories for the upper Texas coastal waters. Light
northeast winds today and tonight should increase Friday as another
front slides off the coast. A coastal trough is expected to form
Saturday and Saturday night but largely remain off the coast and
farther out in the Gulf. The main impact will be enhanced easterly
winds that decrease on Sunday. Southerly winds increase again Monday
with the next strong cold front on Tuesday. It looks like there will
not be any marine hazards until the front on Tuesday at which we
might need advisories or gale watch/warnings.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 57 35 54 40 59 / 0 10 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 57 37 57 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 53 47 54 51 57 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck

[Portastorm]

Seen a lot of dialogue on here the last few days about weather computer models. First, I am not one to bash computer models. As any degreed meteorologist will tell you that they are nothing more than tools. Like a good tool, an experienced craftsmen knows how to use it and what it should be used for. The craftsman knows the tools strengths and deficiencies. So do meteorologists. Some models clearly score better than others. But all can be of value.

Many of us enthusiasts are prone to looking at model runs and assuming they will verify verbatim. And if they don't, then they are labeled "trash." To me that suggests that the enthusiast doesn't understand the value of that particular model (as tools). But you can get a sense on when they are struggling with a weather pattern when you see different projected outcomes for the same time.

That being said, it appears the models are struggling with the existing pattern. Looking to the strong cold front coming late Monday for Texas, from the 0z model suite, the FV3-GFS shows 61 for Austin at 6 pm Tuesday. The GFS shows 42. The Euro shows 41. The CMC (Canadian) shows 35. Which one will verify?

The Washington Post back in May of last year had a nice little piece on understanding models. If you have a moment, it's a quick/good read:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/18/what-exactly-are-weather-models-and-how-do-they-work/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a39f1a95176e

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting little blog from the local weather office this morning. A lot of talk here at work that we could use another "ice" day. All you need to shut down the city here are a few flurries and sleet pellets.

https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-bl ... 1718916118

[South Texas Storms]

Howdy everyone!

Just wanted to let yall know that I got our resident cold miser and long-range expert at the office to finally sign up on Storm2K! He is the rival to our resident heat miser, and will be giving our cold team a big boost! I'll try to get him to make his first post later today...His username is Arctic Thunder

[wxman57]

Howdy everyone!

Just wanted to let y'all know that I got our resident cold miser and long-range expert at the office to finally sign up on Storm2K! He is the rival to our resident heat miser, and will be giving our cold team a big boost! I'll try to get him to make his first post later today...His username is Arctic Thunder

Arctic Thunder and I have been battling for nearly 30 years. He's a cold-mongerer deep in his heart, but he's been a good friend for decades. Opposites can get along.

[orangeblood]

As we've discussed previously, the MJO could play a huge factor going forward....should have major implications if it stays amped up going forward (need it to continue into Phase 7-8) just check out what it typically brings the the NH for Feb. Good news is it appears to have a short stint in Phase 6 so warmup should be brief, if at all!



Phase 7 Feb El Nino



Phase 8 Feb El Nino

[Cerlin]

As we've discussed previously, the MJO could play a huge factor going forward....should have major implications if it stays amped up going forward (need it to continue into Phase 7-8) just check out what it typically brings the the NH for Feb

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Phase 7 Feb El Nino

http://i65.tinypic.com/51x9w4.jpg

Phase 8 Feb El Nino

http://i68.tinypic.com/fz5d0g.jpg

That would be fantastic.

[Portastorm]

Howdy everyone!

Just wanted to let yall know that I got our resident cold miser and long-range expert at the office to finally sign up on Storm2K! He is the rival to our resident heat miser, and will be giving our cold team a big boost! I'll try to get him to make his first post later today...His username is Arctic Thunder

That is awesome news ... welcome Arctic Thunder!

We are so privileged to have professional meteorologists on our forum.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As we've discussed previously, the MJO could play a huge factor going forward....should have major implications if it stays amped up going forward (need it to continue into Phase 7-8) just check out what it typically brings the the NH for Feb. Good news is it appears to have a short stint in Phase 6 so warmup should be brief!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Phase 7 Feb El Nino

http://i65.tinypic.com/51x9w4.jpg

Phase 8 Feb El Nino

http://i68.tinypic.com/fz5d0g.jpg

This is promising news for snow lovers. As I mentioned, i think the models in the LR were seeing the MJO stay in phase 6 and after 10 days would show a pattern that would complement this. I felt the models were being a bit binary, so now that the Euro is shifting some, lets see how it reacts.

Long range, if the MJO is active, probably the most important factor amongst a trillion other variables. I also read somewhere that the SSW event will FINALLY reach the surface in early Feb too. So, there is another factor.

Can i say one thing though: The biggest disappointment so far for me is the lack of blocking around Greenland during this low solar year. Does it typically happen later in the season? I dont know but its been non existent!


Also, super heavy frost this am. Maybe from the rain. Even the top of my fence had frost on it this am.