ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looking like out to Sea this run...Trend or Flop?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

Take that back...Landfall in Linas..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

[Bocadude85]

Looking like out to Sea this run...Trend or Flop?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

Take that back...Landfall in Linas..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

yup landfall in south carolina.. will have to see what the other models show

one thing to note is the gfs has her do a cyclonic loop.. i think thats the difference between her hitting S FL or SC I would think if she didnt loop then it would have been a Fl landfall

[terrapintransit]

WOW....Check out this article I just read from accuweather about the potential track of HANNA....Another Gulf Coast Threat??

Tropical Storm Hanna continues to move westward toward the Bahamas and is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. A track slightly to the north of west is expected over the next few days before a building high in the Atlantic forces Hanna to track southwestward toward the Bahamas. By Tuesday, Hanna could be a powerful Category 2 hurricane as it brings heavy rain and damaging winds to the Bahamas. The possibility exists for Hanna to continue westward across the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico where it could remain a powerful hurricane with the potential for a Gulf Coast landfall.

Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Leister

[bvigal]

Looking like out to Sea this run...Trend or Flop?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

Take that back...Landfall in Linas..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

Linas? Where is that? I put it in Google and got dozens of pages of stuff from Atlanta to everywhere (stores, etc.)
I have one question about these models... how do you read all the writing on top of writing in the little circle of the storm? What barometric pressure is that? Is it a hurricane or ts?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looking like out to Sea this run...Trend or Flop?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

Take that back...Landfall in Linas..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

Linas? Where is that? I put it in Google and got dozens of pages of stuff from Atlanta to everywhere (stores, etc.)
I have one question about these models... how do you read all the writing on top of writing in the little circle of the storm? What barometric pressure is that? Is it a hurricane or ts?

Linas=Carolinas...Sorry

[bvigal]

Oh duh, I had just figured that out about now. (sorry)

[bvigal]

The reason my interest, my brother building a house south of Beaufort SC. The realtor told him when he looking at the property, that their area doesn't get hit by hurricanes! When he told me I just shook my head and didn't say a word.

[luvstorms]

Bvigal-I can't answer your question about what the intensity is in those charts, I would love to know too. But I can answer about the Beaufort area hits. We have been very fortunate with avoiding hits. I've lived on Hilton Head Island (borders southern Beaufort on the coast) for 15 yrs. and we haven't been hit yet. Hugo was close in 1989 but went North to Charleston and we didn't get any wind/rain thankfully. We have had 3 manditory evacuations in the past 15 yrs. though due to being on "barrier" islands and being at sea level. A cat 1 would really flood our area.
Anyway, we are lucky in that we are sort of tucked in, but some day, we will not be so fortunate.

[BigA]

Both the CMC and GFS models turn this thing into a cyclone of epic proportions before sending it northwest toward the US east coast. If the shear ever relaxes, this could be a big problem.

[bvigal]

Bvigal-I can't answer your question about what the intensity is in those charts, I would love to know too. But I can answer about the Beaufort area hits. We have been very fortunate with avoiding hits. I've lived on Hilton Head Island (borders southern Beaufort on the coast) for 15 yrs. and we haven't been hit yet. Hugo was close in 1989 but went North to Charleston and we didn't get any wind/rain thankfully. We have had 3 manditory evacuations in the past 15 yrs. though due to being on "barrier" islands and being at sea level. A cat 1 would really flood our area.
Anyway, we are lucky in that we are sort of tucked in, but some day, we will not be so fortunate.

Wow, HH is right on the coast, so I can imagine you get to evacuate 1st, when there is a threat. Bro is building in Colletin River Plantation. Something the realtor told him about the terrain of the coast, etc. storms usually go north. I hope that's true! But I am afraid Hanna is going to strike the U.S. EC somewhere, and of course one can't help but think of that other big H storm, Hugo.

[fci]

So what happened to the strong ridge that would take Hanna to the SW or WSW?

Now there are models showing a turn to the North.

A whole lot of change in the "blocking ridge" philosophy I guess in a very short time.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wow, that is a strong cane on GFS. The hitch is the ULL over the Canadian maritimes out past 120hrs Hanna could stall/loop and still catch that weakness...I hope

[Vortex]

Very important changes taking place with the structure of Hanna as I write. The shear has dropped significantly over the last 6 hours and the ULL has opened up. Notice the convective burst just north of the LLC. This is beginning to bleed into the LLC and over the next few hours this should expand as bursting convective cells form over the center. The upper-air patttern has improved significantly in most quadrants the last few hours and will continue to improve this afternoon. Hanna is set for steady strengthening late this afternoon and especially on sunday. The path looks w/wnw followed by a w/wsw 2-3 days from now the a resumption of a w/wnw As it approaches the western bahamas guidance is beginning to indicate a northerly turn. As is usually the case, where the turn takes place will be one mans blessing and anothers nightmare..The euro run this afternoon should provide more confidence in it's trend the last few days or will give weight to the lates 12 GFS run.

[Patrick99]

"The shear has dropped significantly over the last 6 hours and the ULL has opened up. Notice the convective burst just north of the LLC. This is beginning to bleed into the LLC and over the next few hours this should expand as bursting convective cells form over the center. The upper-air patttern has improved significantly in most quadrants the last few hours and will continue to improve this afternoon."

I'm noticing this on the WV loop. Her battles with the ULL are just about over, IMO.

[Trader Ron]

Both the CMC and GFS models turn this thing into a cyclone of epic proportions before sending it northwest toward the US east coast. If the shear ever relaxes, this could be a big problem.

I just ran the 00z GFS, again. It's not even close to "EPIC" proportions.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Both the CMC and GFS models turn this thing into a cyclone of epic proportions before sending it northwest toward the US east coast. If the shear ever relaxes, this could be a big problem.

I just ran the 00z GFS, again. It's not even close to "EPIC" proportions.

Try the 12z run

[Patrick99]

So what happened to the strong ridge that would take Hanna to the SW or WSW?

Now there are models showing a turn to the North.

A whole lot of change in the "blocking ridge" philosophy I guess in a very short time.

I really think the models (as a whole) don't have a clue here. Some one model may turn out to be "right," but when they all look like a bowl of noodles, I'm not sure that even matters. Blind pig, acorn.

[bvigal]

Still having some thunder and rain from Hanna here.

[Bocadude85]

models should become more reliable once we get recon in there and get better data input into the models. And remember as the NHC said in a previous discussion the models have had a right bias with this storm, when she was supposed to go NW she kept going W

[Blown Away]

models should become more reliable once we get recon in there and get better data input into the models. And remember as the NHC said in a previous discussion the models have had a right bias with this storm, when she was supposed to go NW she kept going W

Good point! Also the models are not good in predicting how long a system will stall, Gustav stalled alot longer than predicted. Most of the time it seems the NHC predicts a longer stall than what really happens.