ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Cyclenall]

The NHC is putting out STDS 30 minutes before the normal time an advisory package would come out (3 times in a row today). This shows they are sort of treating it like a system but not offically .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The NHC is putting out STDS 30 minutes before the normal time an advisory package would come out (3 times in a row today). This shows they are sort of treating it like a system but not offically .

This is the kind of system you get when the system is starting to whine down. Maybe one or two more...Likely one in Oct and another late November or early December. We will see.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220555
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM
BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT 10
TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND...AND THESE RAINS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPBULIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[jlauderdal]

looks like the last two i posted, i hope cycloneye has a life preserver and a boat





im not sure how accurate these radar estimates are for storm totals due to the terrain

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ANALYZED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER
WITH MULTIPLE ROTATIONS OBSERVED ON PUERTO RICO RADAR EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N68W TO 20N63W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 57W-64W ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND INCLUDES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 220958
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST MON SEP 22 2008

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AFFECTED THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND TERRITORIAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND BROAD AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION.

THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS...HOWEVER THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCAL RESIDENT AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ABREAST OF THIS
POTENTIALLY WET AND DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM.

$$

Have a good day all!

[HURAKAN]

I don't see any increase in the organization of 93L. Moreover, it looks stationary.

[HURAKAN]

NOT A REAL TRACK:



Shows what the NHC was thinking yesterday.

[jlauderdal]

NOT A REAL TRACK:



Shows what the NHC was thinking yesterday.

so it was a fake track? i dont like this thing sitting down there not moving

[cycloneye]

No,I was not in one of those cars there,but this is only an example of what is going on in Puerto Rico as this thing continues to pound us with biblical amounts of rain.This is in a busy expressway in San Juan (Baldorioty de Castro Express) which goes to the international airport.



When I say amounts of rain are of biblical proportions its brutal the amounts so far,being Patillas in SE PR the highest so far with 26 inches.Many rivers are over their banks,schools cancelled in most of PR except the NW corner,two deaths so far related to this event.I will get more information and post it in the obs thread at the top of forum later.

[Thunder44]

I think the LLC looks better defined this morning. From looking at radar and satellite images, it looks like it's over the Mona Passage, and closer to DR coast. It's still pretty disorganzied though, with most of showers and thunderstorms east and SE of the center.

[Cookiely]

My fear is that this thing is not moving and has already rained ten to twenty inches.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still looks disorganized. If I had to guess a center based on radar, West of Mayaguez.





But I wouldn't bet the mortgage or anything.

[HURAKAN]

711
ABNT20 KNHC 221127
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO
AND ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY...AND THESE RAINS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. INTERESTS IN
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
________________________________

Breakfast anyone? Someone seems to be in a hurry!

[Ed Mahmoud]

My fear is that this thing is not moving and has already rained ten to twenty inches.

There is a saying in Texas, every drought ends with a flood. I recall earlier this Summer people were saying Puerto Rico was kind of dry. Well, the dry spell has definitely ended with a flood.

Lets hope 93L starts moving.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ANALYZED JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER WITH MULTIPLE ROTATIONS OBSERVED ON
PUERTO RICO RADAR EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 65W-68W INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 63W-69W ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[HURAKAN]

First visible.

[cycloneye]

A more closer view.

[Lowpressure]

Agree with the Mona passage placement, just off the PR coast. Still not well defined. Seems to be only a matter of time before we get a defined LLC with the convection staying quite consistant and consolidated. It needs to move, PR does not need any more rain from this system.

[HURAKAN]