WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[oaba09]

Hurakan, why is it weakening? Is this temporary?

Don't know exactly but it could be an EWRC episode.

If that's the case, it can re intensify right?

[drdavisjr]

I think these are the latest models. Could a Pro Met or anyone else that has an insight, explain why AFWI is so far south of the rest?

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan, why is it weakening? Is this temporary?

Don't know exactly but it could be an EWRC episode.

If that's the case, it can re intensify right?

It's possible but strong storms tend to fluctuate in intensity.

[Typhoon10]

Hurakan, why is it weakening? Is this temporary?

Don't know exactly but it could be an EWRC episode.

Forgive me for being a novice, but whats a EWRC episode?

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan, why is it weakening? Is this temporary?

Don't know exactly but it could be an EWRC episode.

Forgive me for being a novice, but whats a EWRC episode?

Eye Wall Replacement Cycle

[JTE50]

forecast calls for Lupit to reach the 20 degree line and not go any further north. Both JMA and JTWC max out the northward movement at 20. Any movement past that line and I'd think they'd adjust the track some to the right.

As for the weakening, TWC just aired their tropical weather update in the States maybe Steve Lyons has some thoughts on it. Anybody in the States catch the update???

[metenthusiast]

is that a wobble, or has it started to move west and lower than the forecast?

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=16.00358&lon=130.14404&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=metric&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=1&sat.num=8&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=108&sat.type=IR4&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=0&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=0&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0

[Derek Ortt]

maybe upwelling

[Typhoon10]

forecast calls for Lupit to reach the 20 degree line and not go any further north. Both JMA and JTWC max out the northward movement at 20. Any movement past that line and I'd think they'd adjust the track some to the right.

As for the weakening, TWC just aired their tropical weather update in the States maybe Steve Lyons has some thoughts on it. Anybody in the States catch the update???

"Track some to the right"? You mean northwards? Is there any reason why it cant go more northwards towards Hong Kong?

[metenthusiast]

forecast calls for Lupit to reach the 20 degree line and not go any further north. Both JMA and JTWC max out the northward movement at 20. Any movement past that line and I'd think they'd adjust the track some to the right.

As for the weakening, TWC just aired their tropical weather update in the States maybe Steve Lyons has some thoughts on it. Anybody in the States catch the update???

"Track some to the right"? You mean northwards? Is there any reason why it cant go more northwards towards Hong Kong?

I think the high pressure over china has an influence over that... but hey, I'm no expert and that's only how I understand it listening to the discussions.

[Typhoon10]

forecast calls for Lupit to reach the 20 degree line and not go any further north. Both JMA and JTWC max out the northward movement at 20. Any movement past that line and I'd think they'd adjust the track some to the right.

As for the weakening, TWC just aired their tropical weather update in the States maybe Steve Lyons has some thoughts on it. Anybody in the States catch the update???

"Track some to the right"? You mean northwards? Is there any reason why it cant go more northwards towards Hong Kong?

I think the high pressure over china has an influence over that... but hey, I'm no expert and that's only how I understand it listening to the discussions.

Experts, is the high pressure likely to sustain over the next couple of days? If it subsides, what track will it take then?

[metenthusiast]

latest from JTWC

[HURAKAN]

JTWC = 115 KNOTS

WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 19.4N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.9N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.9N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.2N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.7N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.3N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 132.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND
201500Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

^Still a powerful typhoon

[metenthusiast]

^Still a powerful typhoon

Yes. For a region that's already weather-beaten, this could spell bad.

[oaba09]

Going to sleep now...Hoping for a better forecast tomorrow...thanks for everyone who answered our questions!!!

[JTE50]

Here's what JTWC had to say about what we observed earlier:
"RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND HAS
DECREASED IN SIZE FROM 20 NM AT 190530Z TO 10 NM AT 191130Z. ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TY 22W, A SLOT OF DRY COOLER AIR HAS STARTED
TO WRAP TO THE SOUTH OF LUPIT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A RIBBON
OF DRY AIR CONTINUING ON TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE
DRY AIR HAS NOT STARTED TO INTERACT WITH THE CORE OF DEEPEST CON-
VECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CORE
REMAINS ISOLATED WITH HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE TRACK HAS
SHIFTED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SPED UP TO 09 KNOTS AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH HAS NOW LIFTED OUT OF THE AREA, ALLOWING THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF TY 22W. THE
DECREASE IN OUTFLOW AS THE TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT ALONG WITH THE DRY
AIR BUFFERING THE WESTERN HALF OF TY 22W HAS LED TO THE RECENT
WEAKENING OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON 6.0 DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES."

[HURAKAN]

Open wall

[metenthusiast]

Open wall

What does it mean? Is it bad or good?

[Macrocane]

Both Rick and Lupit are suffering the effect of less favorable conditions, that's good for poeple in Mexico and Philippines but stay tuned and don't underestimate the power of Lupit even if it is weakening.