ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[I-wall]

Vorticity has definitely increased where the 18z track is focusing on

Interesting. Some deep convection is starting to fire in that area. Maybe the NHC did actually see an LLC there (I sure couldnt see it).

[antonlsu]

They do rely on vacationers to those beaches, i am wondering what will happen with the oil in the gulf if this storm does track that way

[Florida1118]

Models continue to push the possible system east. Tampa/Miami AFDs say almost nothing about the system or that it will even in the smallest possibility come close to them. Still To early to tell but I think this is a Texas Storm.

[Sabanic]

Lots of watching to do and several more days before we really have any clue where this one may go.

[HURAKAN]

HPC

[LSU2001]

IMHO,
Any storm of any strength in the gulf right now would cause high tides and heavy surf all along the gulf coast. This could very well push oil further into the estuaries and further up the beaches. Regardless of where any potential storm goes anything in the gulf is bad at this point.
Tim

[Sabanic]

IMHO,
Any storm of any strength in the gulf right now would cause high tides and heavy surf all along the gulf coast. This could very well push oil further into the estuaries and further up the beaches. Regardless of where any potential storm goes anything in the gulf is bad at this point.
Tim

Amen to that

[ROCK]

Models continue to push the possible system east. Tampa/Miami AFDs say almost nothing about the system or that it will even in the smallest possibility come close to them. Still To early to tell but I think this is a Texas Storm.

Oh they will talk about it..until it goes past their lat. Tampa needs to be talking about anyway...

[Florida1118]

HPC

There thinking this will become nothing more than a TD or a low?

[HURAKAN]

Now 2115z


Yesterday 2115z

[I-wall]

HPC

What does this graphic depict? Is that a large hurricane hitting Southeast Texas, or is that just an upper level low pressure hitting the area?

[HURAKAN]

I don't think they want to play with intensity. They're mentioning just what the computer models are saying, a low pressure system will move into the GOM from the Caribbean Sea.

[PauleinHouston]

Simply an HPC generated "long duration" model depicting low and high pressure areas. I don't think it suggests whether it is just a low or a hurricane...simply an area of low pressure.

[sunnyday]

Can someone explain in layman's terms why there is no rotation? Thank you.

[Florida1118]

Simply an HPC generated "long duration" model depicting low and high pressure areas. I don't think it suggests whether it is just a low or a hurricane...simply and area of low pressure.

But in the very right coner of the 2nd and 3rd graphic they show a hurricane, then a TS the next day. So they do have intensity so.... No alex according to them?

[KWT]

The area of Vorticity is probably what the NHC used partly to call the center I'd imagine earlier at 18z.

Anyway convection is indeed starting to develop, expect that to continue as it moves away from that MLC convective mass being strengthened by the jet axis.

[HURAKAN]

Simply an HPC generated "long duration" model depicting low and high pressure areas. I don't think it suggests whether it is just a low or a hurricane...simply and area of low pressure.

But in the very right coner of the 2nd and 3rd graphic they show a hurricane, then a TS the next day. So they do have intensity so.... No alex according to them?

I was looking at that too and I was like "what." If we have a hurricane in the Caribbean in 3 days, then we would have Alex.

I'm confused what they meant.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ROCK]

dont get to caught up in the HPC long range...they are the HPC and not the NHC for a reason...

[HURAKAN]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
257 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

VALID 12Z FRI JUN 25 2010 - 12Z TUE JUN 29 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

ONCE AGAIN...RELIED ON THE LATEST ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE
PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS
MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE FOR DAYS NOW...AND CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE MODELS ARE BETTER
CLUSTERED TODAY...CLOSE TO THE ECENS MEAN...FOR THE FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH BOTH THE GEFS MEAN AND
CMCE MEAN WELL CORRELATED. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WAS SENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST A COUPLE RUNS AGO...NOW CLOSER TO THE MEAN AND TRACK
COORDINATED WITH TPC YESTERDAY. THE POLAR FRONT WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SHARP FOR LATE JUNE...WITH AN ENORMOUS THERMAL CONTRAST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG PUSH OF MARITIME POLAR AIR
IS SLATED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7...WITH AREAS WEST
OF THE CASCADES REALLY FEELING THE COOLING EFFECT.

FINAL...

THE 12Z/22 GFS AND GEFS MEAN ARE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z/22 ECENS MEAN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DAY 6
THAN THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET...WHICH SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. SEE NO GOOD REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
RELIABLE ECENS THERE...WITH THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST
NOT A MAJOR POINT OF CONTENTION. COORDINATION WITH TPC ON THE LOW
IN THE GULF THIS PERIOD RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORECAST...WITH THE CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
DAY 7.


CISCO