ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[ROCK]

long way to go from that view.....no convection on the east side, northern side convection weakening.....subsidence bro will get you every time...

[Aric Dunn]

There is a little bit of easterly shear right now but it should be decreasing over the next 12 to 24 hours..

[Aric Dunn]

long way to go from that view.....no convection on the east side, northern side convection weakening.....subsidence bro will get you every time...

there is no subsidence. during the developing and early stages convection always comes and goes. There is some easterly shear of about 10 to 15 kts..

[ROCK]

long way to go from that view.....no convection on the east side, northern side convection weakening.....subsidence bro will get you every time...

there is no subsidence. during the developing and early stages convection always comes and goes. There is some easterly shear of about 10 to 15 kts..

what do you call that to the north being drawn into the circulation? Snow?.... cloud formation is a big hint......shear maps show about 20knts on the back side with shear increasing out in front of it....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Javlin]

Still looking W to me at the most maybe 275'.When I looked at 6PM 11'N just now at 11'N give or take some come 35'W tomorrow still 11'N hey the models are wrong.They have been doing this thus far this year;always WNW to NW off the bat.

[Aric Dunn]

long way to go from that view.....no convection on the east side, northern side convection weakening.....subsidence bro will get you every time...

there is no subsidence. during the developing and early stages convection always comes and goes. There is some easterly shear of about 10 to 15 kts..

what do you call that to the north being drawn into the circulation? Snow?.... cloud formation is a big hint......shear maps show about 20knts on the back side with shear increasing out in front of it....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

yes shear is present but we have divergence aloft hence rising air. the lack of convection is likely due to the easterly shear and the fact that there is still a weak boundary to the east that is inhibiting some low level convergence. the dry air to the north is not penetrating that far south..

[gatorcane]

Still looking W to me at the most maybe 275'.When I looked at 6PM 11'N just now at 11'N give or take some come 35'W tomorrow still 11'N hey the models are wrong.They have been doing this thus far this year;always WNW to NW off the bat.

Yep seems to just be trucking along just a little north of due west. Not really gaining much lattitude just yet.

[supercane]

UW-CIMSS TCTrak shows light NE shear over TD 6:

[ColinDelia]

850 mb vorticity



Also note the next wave in the picture to the east

[cycloneye]

Still has competition from the vorticity to its NE, but is better now than this morning when there were three different ones. In other words,still has some work to do to consolidate, but is getting there and it will be named Danielle in the morning, unless there is a sudden collapse of the TD.

[ColinDelia]

I posted this earlier but worth another look. This is how an elongated area of vorticity eventually consolidated and became Isabel in '03.

[ColinDelia]

Where's the big ULL to the North at 27N, 41 W supposed to go?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Throw on the "tropical forecast points" for an interesting look.

[TwisterFanatic]

this is where i think the LLC is after looking at the loops..

[ColinDelia]

[ColinDelia]

Well, here's the answer to my question. From the discussion:

"WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N41W THAT IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS."

You have to wonder if this could have an effect on the strength of what should be Danielle down the road.

[KWT]

There is some shear on it and given its large size it possibly will take a little while to ramp up, though given its probably not far from a TS that could easily happen today if it gets a decent burst at some point.

Track looking ever more uncertain now, I'd say the key is how much latitude it gains over the next 4 days, if it can stay south of 23N then the risks to Florida northwards increase in a big way!

[cycloneye]

The recurving scenario looks very bleak now as things are changing upstream according to the models. KWT, have you abandoned completly the recurving?

[ColinDelia]

06z GFS has a real close call for Bermuda

[ColinDelia]

The NHC 5 day cone currently includes a circle of radius 285 nm on the 5th day. 67% of the time over the past 5 years a storm has been in that circle on day 5. That leaves a full 33% that it is not. It would be useful to know how much of that is "along the track" error vs. width error. Assuming none and a symmetrical error there would be a roughly 1 on 6 chance of any individual storm ending up left of the official track. (Not saying it's zero. I have no idea what it is)

[cycloneye]

It looks like the circulation is tucked beneath the eastern part of convection. If this continues, at 11 AM they may upgrade.