2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Eric Blake compares this season to the early 90's. Really interesting. Maybe tomorrow ill break the early 1990's down.

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 18h

Cristina has an impressive satellite presentation! Sure looks like a big EPac season coming, like the early 1990s.

[supercane4867]

While officially the NOAA and the HWRF [I guess some other models too] analyzed the lowest pressure of Cristina at 935 hPa, the GFS has the lowest pressure of Cristina, while having 131-kt category 4 hurricane winds, at 997 hPa.

I can't upload an image because the Internet Connection is currently very slow, leading to the photo/image hosting sites being down.

Make sure you look at full-resolution grid which has 974hPa. Global models are not used to solve the true intensity of a storm anyway, that's why we have hurricane models like HWRF

[Yellow Evan]

SMN shows two possible storms behind Cristina.

[cycloneye]

This is from Dr Jeff Masters.

1973, June 6: Hurricane Ava, 160 mph, 915 mb.
2010, June 25: Hurricane Celia, 160 mph, 921 mb
2014, May 25: Hurricane Amanda, 155 mph, 932 mb
2000, June 21: Hurricane Carlotta, 155 mph, 932 mb
2014, June 12: Hurricane Cristina, 150 mph, 935 mb

[Yellow Evan]

This is from Dr Jeff Masters.

1973, June 6: Hurricane Ava, 160 mph, 915 mb.
2010, June 25: Hurricane Celia, 160 mph, 921 mb
2014, May 25: Hurricane Amanda, 155 mph, 932 mb
2000, June 21: Hurricane Carlotta, 155 mph, 932 mb
2014, June 12: Hurricane Cristina, 150 mph, 935 mb

So, 5th strongest per-July storm on record and 4th strongest June storm on record.

It was also only our 10th Cat 4 on record in June. Last one was in 2011.

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC shows a hurricane near MX





CFS continues to show big MJO pulse soon.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Having a hard time understanding why model guidance isn't much more bullish for the tropical wave over Panama. The GFS is forecasting low wind shear environment for the wave as anticyclonic flow develops aloft--at least, until it spins up that bogus cyclone in the West Caribbean. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the environment is moist. In addition, another strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave...which likely aided in the rapid intensification events of Raymond 13 and Amanda/Cristina 14...is traversing the central Pacific on its way eastward.

We'll see. Maybe I'm missing something.

[Yellow Evan]

Having a hard time understanding why model guidance isn't much more bullish for the tropical wave over Panama. The GFS is forecasting low wind shear environment for the wave as anticyclonic flow develops aloft--at least, until it spins up that bogus cyclone in the West Caribbean. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the environment is moist. In addition, another strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave...which likely aided in the rapid intensification events of Raymond 13 and Amanda/Cristina 14...is traversing the central Pacific on its way eastward.

We'll see. Maybe I'm missing something.

I think it's due to the bogus cyclone in the W Carb it shows. But I agree we could see Douglas next week.

[supercane4867]

ECMWF develops the next storm start at day 7

[Yellow Evan]

Nice little wave train. Why aren't models aggressive with this? Knowing the way the GFS has been lately, I imagine the phantom storms will end up in the EPAC. As TC or not it remains to be seen. the GFS is expecting low shear over the basin as well,

[Kingarabian]

I think as the week goes by, models will pick up development.

Maybe they don't like all that dry air despite it being further west?

[stormcruisin]

Thinking there maybe a issue with the ventilation index in the GFS prog.

[cycloneye]

The ACE for the season continues to soar as Cristina continues to add units. As of the 03z or 8 PM PDT advisory the numbers are 30.0625.

[Yellow Evan]

Thinking there maybe a issue with the ventilation index in the GFS prog.

Well, the CFS (GFS 5 years ago) as well as the GEPS and GEFS don't show much in the short-term either. Maybe we won't get Douglas soon.

[Yellow Evan]

12z CMC once again shows a hurricane near Soccoro Island.

[stormcruisin]

Already another disturbance coming along now in the doldrums while there are no signs of organization at this time it could well the next to crank-up in a few days.

[Yellow Evan]

Stole from WPAC forum. TC chances look good next week.

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF large TS near Baja

[Yellow Evan]

CMC still showing something off the west coast of MX 10 days from now. Nothing too exciting though.

[hurricanes1234]

This could appear on the TWO soon. It looks as though it's organising.