Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[weathaguyry]

GFS had moderate-strong TS transversing the Southern Bahamas moving NW at hour 210

[weathaguyry]

Starting to deepen again at hour 216, at 989mb

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS had moderate-strong TS transversing the Southern Bahamas moving NW at hour 210

Beginning to intensify again on D9...

I really want to see what the EURO and UKMET do tonight before making a call, but O would definitely say that this needs to be watched, closely.

[Kingarabian]

Nothing much from the EPS, and you can expect the Euro Parallel and OP Euro to show little to nothing in the next runs.

EPS sends it into the EPAC.

[weathaguyry]

I think NHC is out of their mind if they don't give it at least 0/20 at 8PM

[Hurricane Andrew]

D9-D10: Looks like the US may dodge a bullet as the storm is turning north...if ridging builds back in, the run stays interesting.

GFS-P stays well south as the weak TS never turns poleward, crashes into CA as a remnant low by D9.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think NHC is out of their mind if they don't give it at least 0/20 at 8PM

Considering the GFS has a closed low by D1, a hurricane by D5, the GFS-P has a TS by D5, and the ECM and UKMET do mot develop this as all, I think something like 10/30 would be a good start, maybe upping it to 30/50 tomorrow if the ECM brings back development.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[weathaguyry]

Hmm, really starts to deepen as it turns poleward, please don't send it here, I would like to sleep peacefully tonight

REALLY deepens into a 961mb cane as it starts to get a little west of north movement

[RL3AO]

D9-D10: Looks like the US may dodge a bullet as the storm is turning north...if ridging builds back in, the run stays interesting.
.

North turn? Looks NW to me. Probably the Carolinas. A little north of the 12z run.

[Hurricane Andrew]

D10: Major hurricane moving NNW, looks like ridging is building back in. The GFS has been remarkably consistent for the last few cycles, considering how long the forecast is. Still want to see the ECM and UKMET rejoin the development camp before I make a call one way or the other, and I'm sure the NHC is wrestling with the same issue.

[Hurricane Andrew]

D9-D10: Looks like the US may dodge a bullet as the storm is turning north...if ridging builds back in, the run stays interesting.
.

North turn? Looks NW to me. Probably the Carolinas. A little north of the 12z run.

Yeah, I posted that before I saw the ridge begin to build back to the W in the next few frames.

[RL3AO]

Yeah, I posted that before I saw the ridge begin to build back to the W in the next few frames.

Based on the synoptic pattern, there is nothing to turn it north and east. The main trough is up near 50N.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yeah, I posted that before I saw the ridge begin to build back to the W in the next few frames.

Based on the synoptic pattern, there is nothing to turn it north and east. The main trough is up near 50N.

It looks like you are right. Taken verbatim, a very dangerous situation for the US east coast. Luckily, this is still 10 days out.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Parallel is weaker than the OP Euro.

[weathaguyry]

Just your everyday July 956mb Hurricane into South Carolina

[Hurricane Andrew]

D12: Smashes into SC as a likely major hurricane. Once agaih, very glad this is over 240 hours out.

[gatorcane]

I would rather be in the crosshairs in South Florida this far out knowing it will change as we get closer. Hope the GFS has lost its mind.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS might not be all that crazy, then again it is the GFS we're talking about. But a major hurricane in mid-July in the Atlantic basin is rare but not unheard of. Many keep saying how this isn't the wild 2005 season but 2008 had the numbers 16/8/5 which could be a good analog for this season in terms of numbers at least and there was also Hurricane Bertha which attained major status and was one of the longer lived TC's.

[Hurricane Andrew]

D13: Moving NE, now hitting North Carolina.

[TheStormExpert]

I would rather be in the crosshairs in South Florida this far out knowing it will change as we get closer. Hope the GFS has lost its mind.

Feels like pre-Matthew all over again.