2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

I don't think models will show much if anything in the Atlantic over the next 7-14 days, once they start getting within range of early to mid July that's when they will start lighting up.

I was just going to say that considering the huge plume of SAL forecasted to reach the Gulf and Florida mid-late next week. I’d be highly surprised if we saw Dolly before July 1st.

[aspen]

06z GFS has a trio of EPac systems form within the next 7-10 days. One starts to form on Monday between 130-140W, and by late Wednesday/early Thursday, there are three moderate tropical storms across the basin. If the two east of 110W do form, the GFS hints at the possibility of Fujiwhara interaction (and by “hints at” I mean it has the easternmost storm absorb the western one at 200+ hrs out).

[wxman57]

I don't think models will show much if anything in the Atlantic over the next 7-14 days, once they start getting within range of early to mid July that's when they will start lighting up.

I was just going to say that considering the huge plume of SAL forecasted to reach the Gulf and Florida mid-late next week. I’d be highly surprised if we saw Dolly before July 1st.

Do you have a link to a dust forecast beyond the next 5 days? Ryan Maue's page only has a forecast out to 120 hrs:

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/cams/cams.php

[TheStormExpert]

I don't think models will show much if anything in the Atlantic over the next 7-14 days, once they start getting within range of early to mid July that's when they will start lighting up.

I was just going to say that considering the huge plume of SAL forecasted to reach the Gulf and Florida mid-late next week. I’d be highly surprised if we saw Dolly before July 1st.

Do you have a link to a dust forecast beyond the next 5 days? Ryan Maue's page only has a forecast out to 120 hrs:

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/cams/cams.php

Other than the forecast by different people on Twitter no.

 https://twitter.com/erinsaiditwould/status/1273044492015280135




 https://twitter.com/mattdevittwink/status/1273217331376934913

[TampaBull]

I’ll say June and the first half of July will be relatively calm. The impressive waves though coming off Africa this early does have me a little alarm, but also might suppress development with the Saharan dust being blown off the continent.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1273312410712113153

[Jr0d]

Interesting set up for the Bermuda high this year. If this holds up I expect a lot of fishes, though we will need to watch the storms that stay south and track through the Caribbean.

What Bermuda High!?

I think we can call it an Azores high this year.

When the high sets up that far east, most of the Cape Verde storms will turn north early and become 'fishes'.

We shall see where/if a high can establish itself further west in August/September

[aspen]

The GFS has been trying to develop a possible STC off of the US east coast for the last few days now. A low pressure system currently near Bermuda tracks NW, before merging with another low pressure system coming from the coast and developing into a TC/STC on Sunday/Monday. In the 18z run, the GFS attempts to develop what might be a second system around 30N/42W within the same Sunday/Monday time frame.

[GCANE]

AEWs progressively amplifying as they cross the Carib.
Could see something effect CONUS first week in July.

A couple AEWs at 66 hrs out.
The one south of PR makes it to the Yucatan channel






Big one comes in 222 hrs out




High rider comes in 333 hrs out
Gets serious in the GOM

[plasticup]

Interesting set up for the Bermuda high this year. If this holds up I expect a lot of fishes, though we will need to watch the storms that stay south and track through the Caribbean.

What Bermuda High!?

I think we can call it an Azores high this year.

When the high sets up that far east, most of the Cape Verde storms will turn north early and become 'fishes'.

We shall see where/if a high can establish itself further west in August/September

Not fishes, Bermuda storms. That's what happens when the high is displaced east.

[TheStormExpert]

What Bermuda High!?

I think we can call it an Azores high this year.

When the high sets up that far east, most of the Cape Verde storms will turn north early and become 'fishes'.

We shall see where/if a high can establish itself further west in August/September

Not fishes, Bermuda storms. That's what happens when the high is displaced east.

Yes, a lot of times Bermuda gets threatened, more so than Florida, but they’re a tiny island in a big ocean so while they get more threats a direct impact or even landfall is uncommon.

[wxman22]

Euro shows a weak tropical storm along the Texas coast next week.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a quick strike TD near Galveston in 10 days.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/S0tn5JO.png[url]

This was back on the 12th.

Tonight's 00z Euro run shows something similar:

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1273942845045592064

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we could see a quick spin-up development in the western GOM next week. Most models showing at least a moisture surge with the Euro being most bullish. Will be interesting to see today's 12z model suite.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1274009008840605696

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1274080884291801088




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1274081862143500288




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1274082226993459202

[alan1961]

I don't think any tropical waves have much chance of surving this dust outbreak!

[AutoPenalti]

https://img.techpowerup.org/200621/screenhunter-01-jun-21-14-34.gif

I don't think any tropical waves have much chance of surving this dust outbreak!

You’d be surprised.

[chaser1]

https://img.techpowerup.org/200621/screenhunter-01-jun-21-14-34.gif

I don't think any tropical waves have much chance of surving this dust outbreak!

You’d be surprised.

Could happen but they'd have to be small, & ride fairly low latitude remaining just south of the primary dust bloom. That or, find that "sweet spot" over the far SW Caribbean or Western GOM where conditions are less affected.