ATL: ELSA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF doesn’t seem to cave but it seems to be trending west with every run.

[Category5Kaiju]

More west= more time over water and less land interaction= stronger storm (of course, assuming wind shear is light and the environment is decently moist)

[SFLcane]

00z models..Tcvn back east of NHC track.

[Steve]

HWRF doesn’t seem to cave but it seems to be trending west with every run.

Seems like an outlier. I’m not going to dis the HWRF within about 5 days. But that run ends at 126 hours south of 26 and close to 87W. Some models build back in the ridge strongly a few days after Elsa lifts out and attacks the seaboard. But most of them kept it east of 84. If the HWRF is right, and that’s questionable at best right now, that basically brings at least SE MS into possible play. Certainly points farther east than that would be as well. Last night I didn’t post it, but I was thinking Cape Coral to maybe a little east of Apalachicola was the spread - relatively narrow as far as longitudes but far away from each other.

I’m glad HWRF seems to be mostly on its own and hope that it’s not a trailblazer for the rest.

[toad strangler]

HWRF doesn’t seem to cave but it seems to be trending west with every run.

Seems like an outlier. I’m not going to dis the HWRF within about 5 days. But that run ends at 126 hours south of 26 and close to 87W. Some models build back in the ridge strongly a few days after Elsa lifts out and attacks the seaboard. But most of them kept it east of 84. If the HWRF is right, and that’s questionable at best right now, that basically brings at least SE MS into possible play. Certainly points farther east than that would be as well. Last night I didn’t post it, but I was thinking Cape Coral to maybe a little east of Apalachicola was the spread - relatively narrow as far as longitudes but far away from each other.

I’m glad HWRF seems to be mostly on its own and hope that it’s not a trailblazer for the rest.

More than half of the last two cycles of GEFS members have done the same while papa OP stays E

[Steve]

Yeah. I saw those concentrations. But I wasn’t taking them seriously yet. Unfortunately I’ll probably stay up to watch at least some of the 00z globals.

[TimSmith]

nhc dont see this as hurr their think it stay under 60mph or so as get to cuba

It’s not that they don’t see Elsa as a hurricane, they do acknowledge their forecast is at the lower end of forecast intensity models and are being somewhat conservative.

They’re mainly waiting for the storm to pass the islands to get a better understanding on if there will be any interaction with the Greater Antilles.

plane will tell us more on friday too

YES, yes and more yes! Currently these running of approximated data, so the intensity forecast is just that much more well unknown! The model runs after we get and feed in solid data tommorow about the true inner structure etc etc etc.


SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 02/0715Z
D. 12.7N 58.9W
E. 02/1130Z TO 02/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FEET

[ROCK]

18z GEFS are once again weighted much further WEST even with the Op shift EAST

Gonna be a long weekend with the wind shield wipers on

Florida vs Florida. Haha.

Just like old times Steve

[ROCK]

Let’s put this into perspective. What do we know. GFS is always right biased Euro is left biased. The 12Z Euro destroys Elsa into nothing mlore than some clouds. GFS wants to pound FL bend or maybe Tampa. What are the ensembles doing? They are more spread out than before. What does climatology tells us in July??? Hotter than hell with a robust BH over the EC. Rare that a trof will dig deep enough in freakin July to turn anything that is moving at 30mph. Remember IKE up into FL then Euro did a 900 mile correction into Brownsville then moved up the coast. Point is med range is not set in stone. The EURO will always be king.

[toad strangler]

11 PM NHC cone center track looks like the 18z GFS

[Steve]

Icon for the severalith run in a row peels off the energy into the front again.

[Cat5James]

Icon for the severalith run in a row peels off the energy into the front again.

Initializes at 1010 mb.. way off

[toad strangler]

0Z GFS rolling and a touch SW and weaker than the last two runs through 42 hrs

[AxaltaRacing24]

Icon for the severalith run in a row peels off the energy into the front again.

Unfortunately, it seems that the 2020 issues of models poofing everything is going to continue.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS a few mb weaker than 18z but similar track so far through hour 48

[toad strangler]

0z GFS eyeballing a E Jamaica hit

[toad strangler]

BOOM right over the heart of Jamaica 66 through 72 exiting 991mb heading NW and not caving to the Euro in any way shape or form

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS a few mb weaker than 18z but similar track so far through hour 48

Now it's a little stronger and a bit further west than 18z

[toad strangler]

Through 84 hrs the 0z GFS definitely S & W of the last two runs. Moving towards ensembles?

[ElectricStorm]

979mb heading to W Cuba at hour 96