ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Anybody have Cuba station data on wind directions.
Based on the Vis Sat loop, I could put that X almost anywhere,
I just don't see it.

[Tailgater33]

Got some consolidation to do, MLC is to the SSE of it.

https://i.imgur.com/xXkRxNy.gif

If that red x is the center then the storm is on the right side of the NHC forecast. NHC map shows it should be in the Gulf of Batabano.

Could be an eddy but it pretty vigorous. Let’s watch to see if it is not doing a cyclonic spin around main center.

[USTropics]

Anybody have Cuba station data on wind directions.
Based on the Vis Sat loop, I could put that X almost anywhere,
I just don't see it.

Windy has some surface data from Cuban airports:


https://www.windy.com/?21.397,-80.024,7,m:enbad6q

[hipshot]

Anybody have Cuba station data on wind directions.
Based on the Vis Sat loop, I could put that X almost anywhere,
I just don't see it.

Windy has some surface data from Cuban airports:
https://i.imgur.com/5Njq6f9.png

https://www.windy.com/?21.397,-80.024,7,m:enbad6q

From that, the center looks like it might be between the Isle of Youth and Havana, just off the south coast of Cuba.

[DunedinDave]

Our local meteorologist talked about this last night that when a system is this disorganized the center can jump around. You can see the old center from yesterday morning NE of where the NHC has it. This thing is just an ugly mess right now.

[NDG]

Key West reporting 86 F winds gusting to 40 mph. Pure gradient winds.

[NDG]

Surface CoC is not very well defined, reason why hurricane models are not doing much with it during the next 24 hrs until the surface low aligns in height.

[Jr0d]

Latest observation from the Key West Airport, sustained 24 mph gust to 40 mph.


https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KEYW.html

[Nimbus]

Looks like its headed up the Bay of Pigs which is west of the mountain range, not much above 500 ft elevation to tear it up.

[Visioen]

Land interaction, steering collapse, this one has it all. Interesting forecast.

[skillz305]

Is this jogging North sooner than anticipated? Any track implications?

[DunedinDave]

Is this jogging North sooner than anticipated? Any track implications?

The problem is I don't even think the NHC knows where the center is. I don't know. I see like 3 or 4 different spins going on. It's just an ugly mess right now.

[Michele B]

I still believe once this system gets out into the Gulf ALL earlier intensity forecasts and future track cones go out the window. It sure is moving slow.

The Bermuda high is strong, but is Four going to miss the dip in the jet stream that’s supposed to pick it up and steer it north/NE?

The bad thing about the trof is that it has a Anti-cyclonic Rossby Wave Break to its SE; i.e. in the East GoM.
Debby could significantly strengthen due to this.

Oh, I'm fully expecting it to become a hurricane, unlike a LOT of the mets I'm hearing on various channels.

Why are they ignoring the very warm waters and the -- whatever it is you are describing!

[Michele B]

Well obvious from that the turn northward has begun

I'll bet we can get a good look from the radar out of Havana, anyone have a source?

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Sure looks like it's waaay south of where NHC puts the center. At least 2 degrees difference.

[DunedinDave]

Looking at visible, it looks like we may be changing centers again maybe? This one looks further east of where the NHC is saying. That could be the old center that initially drifted away from the thunderstorms yesterday. Really not seeing a low circulation of the Bay of Batabano which is where the NHC says the storm should be right now.

[Michele B]

Anybody have Cuba station data on wind directions.
Based on the Vis Sat loop, I could put that X almost anywhere,
I just don't see it.

Windy has some surface data from Cuban airports:
https://i.imgur.com/5Njq6f9.png

https://www.windy.com/?21.397,-80.024,7,m:enbad6q

I'm using this:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 16.81,1228

I can see the low level spin (I'm assuming it the LLC) clearly.

[ConvergenceZone]

I still believe once this system gets out into the Gulf ALL earlier intensity forecasts and future track cones go out the window. It sure is moving slow.

The Bermuda high is strong, but is Four going to miss the dip in the jet stream that’s supposed to pick it up and steer it north/NE?

The bad thing about the trof is that it has a Anti-cyclonic Rossby Wave Break to its SE; i.e. in the East GoM.
Debby could significantly strengthen due to this.

Oh, I'm fully expecting it to become a hurricane, unlike a LOT of the mets I'm hearing on various channels.

Why are they ignoring the very warm waters and the -- whatever it is you are describing!

Because the NHC knows that it takes awhile for a mess like Depression Four to build a core, and nobody knows exactly how long it's gong to take. It can landfall as a minimal cat 1 hurricane or a mid grade tropical storm. It depends how long it takes to build a strong core after it moves offshore. which is the process that takes the longest. The longer it takes the weaker it will be, and vice versa.

[DunedinDave]

Anybody have Cuba station data on wind directions.
Based on the Vis Sat loop, I could put that X almost anywhere,
I just don't see it.

Windy has some surface data from Cuban airports:
https://i.imgur.com/5Njq6f9.png

https://www.windy.com/?21.397,-80.024,7,m:enbad6q

I'm using this:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 16.81,1228

I can see the low level spin (I'm assuming it the LLC) clearly.

If that’s the center it’s very displaced from the worst storms. I still think we could see another center forming. This is just so ragged.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1819756980279607475

[Poonwalker]

Looks pretty ragged and front loaded. I have my doubts about any RI as the structure is not stacked and will take a while. Doesn’t have enough time. My main concern being in Seminole is the rain banding and potential for flooding if we are parked under a continuous feeder for a day or two. We have had a lot of rain in the last month.