Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Models are slowly showing in the medium range TPV dipping into the upper midwest and Great Lakes, which wasn't showing up prior for next week. They just aren't performing well, guessing because Canada is so frigid it doesn't take much.

The biggest change has been to raise heights over the NAO/AO domain which a few days ago were showing positive, now they are solidly forecasted negative.

Will the epo have to trend negative before the southern plains have a decent shot at cold and wintry weather further west?

[Quixotic]

Well you are posting so.......

Ha! Let’s just say I’m here earlier than usual for a reason.

Yeah that's one thing I'm noticing. A lot of people seem unusually hyped about this winter

I'll believe it when I see it but then again this is our second winter threat in 4 days here even if we are going to warm up for awhile

Hasn’t been many winters where there weren’t warmups. Even 09-10 had snow in DFW in the first week of December but we were in the 70s leading up to Christmas Eve and we all know what happened then. Should have been classified a blizzard.

[Ntxw]

Models are slowly showing in the medium range TPV dipping into the upper midwest and Great Lakes, which wasn't showing up prior for next week. They just aren't performing well, guessing because Canada is so frigid it doesn't take much.

The biggest change has been to raise heights over the NAO/AO domain which a few days ago were showing positive, now they are solidly forecasted negative.

Will the epo have to trend negative before the southern plains have a decent shot at cold and wintry weather further west?

I think so that would help. This early season has shown the cards a -WPO is the dominant Pac pattern thus cold is freely available in the white north. Freezes should come plenty, but helps to get -EPO/-AO combo.

[Stratton23]

It does look like we get a -EPO ridge to develop, GFS has a pretty strong EPO ridge, still keeps dumping the trough out west, that seems to be a common theme with modeling and cold this “ winter so far lol” but the cold ends up trending east, should like see the same here

[Ntxw]

Ha! Let’s just say I’m here earlier than usual for a reason.

Yeah that's one thing I'm noticing. A lot of people seem unusually hyped about this winter

I'll believe it when I see it but then again this is our second winter threat in 4 days here even if we are going to warm up for awhile

Hasn’t been many winters where there weren’t warmups. Even 09-10 had snow in DFW in the first week of December but we were in the 70s leading up to Christmas Eve and we all know what happened then. Should have been classified a blizzard.

It's when lows are in the 50s and highs 60-80 that is the concern, all the recent seasons have been this in December for long stretches, that's when you see top 10 warmest. Don't see that for us currently.

[Brent]

Ha! Let’s just say I’m here earlier than usual for a reason.

Yeah that's one thing I'm noticing. A lot of people seem unusually hyped about this winter

I'll believe it when I see it but then again this is our second winter threat in 4 days here even if we are going to warm up for awhile

Hasn’t been many winters where there weren’t warmups. Even 09-10 had snow in DFW in the first week of December but we were in the 70s leading up to Christmas Eve and we all know what happened then. Should have been classified a blizzard.

Yeah most winters up here have some 60s at least. Like I had to look at the coldest months ever here to not find some and even then there's still one sometimes lol like January 1977... And December 2009 even(5 days before the blizzard)...

Which I only see two or three in the next 2 weeks. That's nothing compared to some Decembers recently

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Models are slowly showing in the medium range TPV dipping into the upper midwest and Great Lakes, which wasn't showing up prior for next week. They just aren't performing well, guessing because Canada is so frigid it doesn't take much.

The biggest change has been to raise heights over the NAO/AO domain which a few days ago were showing positive, now they are solidly forecasted negative.

Will the epo have to trend negative before the southern plains have a decent shot at cold and wintry weather further west?

I think so that would help. This early season has shown the cards a -WPO is the dominant Pac pattern thus cold is freely available in the white north. Freezes should come plenty, but helps to get -EPO/-AO combo.

We all want or need certain patterns to get winter weather, depending on where one lives. Do you like the idea the pdo has risen or does that not really matter? The WPS daily charts indicate that. Everyone usually pays attention to the cpc charts. I prefer the the daily ones to keep track

[Ntxw]

Will the epo have to trend negative before the southern plains have a decent shot at cold and wintry weather further west?

I think so that would help. This early season has shown the cards a -WPO is the dominant Pac pattern thus cold is freely available in the white north. Freezes should come plenty, but helps to get -EPO/-AO combo.

We all want or need certain patterns to get winter weather, depending on where one lives. Do you like the idea the pdo has risen or does that not really matter? The WPS daily charts indicate that. Everyone usually pays attention to the cpc charts. I prefer the the daily ones to keep track

SOI has been very negative the past few days. That with the weakening PDO, it favors a wetter pattern as winter progresses.

[Wthrfan]

Snowing and 32 in NW Edmond. Very light, no accumulations.

[Iceresistance]

Been snowing since around 2:30 AM, got an inch already
32°F

[Iceresistance]

I think so that would help. This early season has shown the cards a -WPO is the dominant Pac pattern thus cold is freely available in the white north. Freezes should come plenty, but helps to get -EPO/-AO combo.

We all want or need certain patterns to get winter weather, depending on where one lives. Do you like the idea the pdo has risen or does that not really matter? The WPS daily charts indicate that. Everyone usually pays attention to the cpc charts. I prefer the the daily ones to keep track

SOI has been very negative the past few days. That with the weakening PDO, it favors a wetter pattern as winter progresses.

Speaking of that, we just had a daily -43 of SOI

[Brent]

30 miles away driving towards Texas

[gpsnowman]

30 miles away driving towards Texas

https://i.ibb.co/DDMvKFBb/IMG-20251204-062701952-HDR.jpg

Oklahoma for the win this round!!

[Brent]

30 miles away driving towards Texas

https://i.ibb.co/DDMvKFBb/IMG-20251204-062701952-HDR.jpg

Oklahoma for the win this round!!

Literally no precip north of that at all! Roads totally dry in Tulsa. That was bizarre. Looks like OKC didn't get much either

[Wthrfan]

Been snowing since around 2:30 AM, got an inch already
32°F

Looks like Norman and areas south may end up with some decent snow, especially for this time of the year.

[Brent]

Been snowing since around 2:30 AM, got an inch already
32°F

Looks like Norman and areas south may end up with some decent snow, especially for this time of the year.

Yeah its pretty crazy for this early for sure. Part of the reason I drove down to Okmulgee for a minute

[Iceresistance]

I just measured 1.5 inches of snow, still snowing outside
30°F

[Texas Snow]

Anyone able to provide the EPO forecast?

Heading to Lake Tahoe for Christmas and not only have they barely had snow, there is none in the forecast and it’s relatively warm, slowly melting the already shallow base

[Stratton23]

No point in looking too deep at the operational models right now, MJO looks to stall in phase 8 for potentially several weeks, as i largely suspect that going to give the operational models complete fits as their are a-lot of competing factors in play. I still believe the models are incorrectly dumping the trough out west, should see the - EPO ridge build more over alaska and a correction toward a more central- eastern based trough, not out west

[HockeyTx82]

https://youtube.com/shorts/7MzPTwi3jqo? ... 9DJq0c_5Yb

Oklahoma looks beautiful.