NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Buck]

Recon is observing 50～60 kt flight-level winds, and Melissa's satellite presentation is still improving. If that trend persists, I think it's quite possible that the NHC will go with 45 kts on the 18z advisory, which would be in line with their forecasts from last night.

Special advisory:

12:30 PM EDT Fri Oct 24
Location: 15.6°N 74.5°W
Moving: ESE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1981426269855121660

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon suggests we are seeing more of a “meeting in the middle” scenario where the mlc and llc are converging, rather than a scenario where the mlc drills down to the surface and the old llc is discarded. Intensification looks to be occurring faster now.

[GCANE]

Now 80mm/hr rain rate
A monster in the making

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

[GCANE]

Tropical Storm Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1230 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT MELISSA IS STRENGTHENING...

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicates that
Melissa is strengthening, and maximum sustained winds are now
estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum
pressure from aircraft dropsonde data has dropped to 999 mb
(29.50 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1230 PM EDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 74.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

[underthwx]

Does Melissa have the potential to affect Florida?

[zzzh]

[Iceresistance]

I do not like the look of Melissa

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3dLD.png

[GCANE]

She is pushing out in all quads.
Linking up to the EPAC.
Unlimited hot water.
Likely a major within 24 hours.
Hopefully an EWRC before Jamaica.
Sending prayers.

[GCANE]

Recon just measured surface winds at Cat 1
65.4 knots

Wait and see if it verifies.

[Iceresistance]

It's already wrapping upshear. I think the RI phase has begun for Melissa

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3dsc.gif

[GCANE]

Recon just measured surface winds at Cat 1
65.4 knots

Wait and see if it verifies.

Looks like 2nd reading was contaminated.
Will likely go around for another pass.

[Pelicane]

Shear's clearly letting up now. Look at how the outflow is literally shooting out of the core.

[GCANE]

Recon just measured surface winds at Cat 1
65.4 knots

Wait and see if it verifies.

Looks like 2nd reading was contaminated.
Will likely go around for another pass.

73mm/hr rain rate

[aspen]

It's already wrapping upshear. I think the RI phase has begun for Melissa
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3dsc.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3dsc.gif

Doubt it’s the start of RI yet because there’s still not much of an inner core to speak of. But it’s still significant improvement, and likely setting up a stage of RI starting tomorrow or Sunday.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Does Melissa have the potential to affect Florida?

No

[BobHarlem]

Jamaica radar doesn't show too much yet, although some of the rain bands are starting to get over the island.

[hipshot]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7373/pnipqG.gif

I wonder how long it will be until that convection on the east side of the center merges with the center. When and if it does, this is
going to be a massive hurricane.

[psyclone]

This looks like classic TC liftoff where we undergo a steady strengthening and organization phase for 12-24 hours or perhaps a bit more and then a period of rapid intensification follows and another day later you're on the precipice of a cat 5.

[GCANE]

Recon just measured surface winds at Cat 1
65.4 knots

Wait and see if it verifies.

Looks like 2nd reading was contaminated.
Will likely go around for another pass.

73mm/hr rain rate

Looks like heading back to the barn