2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

The updated animation of the subsurface waters and is very hot.



The still image has now a +5C area.

[WaveBreaking]

You can see the waters in the equatorial WPAC change direction and subtly drift E towards the end of the loop. The Tropical Instability Waves start to fade away and change direction too.

[Ntxw]

The SPAC cyclones have spun, now we wait and see how powerful the WPAC cyclone will be. It will be in tandem with the best phase of the WWB coming. Beyond that the shift then comes towards the heart of ENSO in Nino 3.4 where trades will weaken, and the warmth underneath starts to surface. AMJ or MJJ will likely be where this Nino will have its start on ONI/RONI.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like another trade burst on the way for the Indian Ocean. Walker Cell shifting east.

[Iceresistance]

Cycloneye, 30 Day SOI is now below zero


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bqwzw.png

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, 30 Day SOI is now below zero

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bqwzw.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bqwzw.png

Yes, remarkable freefall of the index after being positive for a long time. Another sign of the impending El Niño coming very soon as the atmosophere is slowly responding to the change.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2041930796911776076

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2041930796911776076

I think any parallels to 2014 went out the window with the powerful sustained WWB ongoing, something that year thoroughly lacked.

[zzzh]

I think any parallels to 2014 went out the window with the powerful sustained WWB ongoing, something that year thoroughly lacked.

There is less ET forcing in 2014 thus the westerlies are weaker in the WPAC, but the WWB along the equator (especially near the dateline) is a lot stronger in 2014, at least through March.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I think any parallels to 2014 went out the window with the powerful sustained WWB ongoing, something that year thoroughly lacked.

https://i.imgur.com/qTYXfRS.png
There is less ET forcing in 2014 thus the westerlies are weaker in the WPAC, but the WWB along the equator (especially near the dateline) is a lot stronger in 2014, at least through March.

Didn't it peter out shortly afterwards though? And we never really saw anything of that magnitude for the rest of the year, hence why things ultimately sputtered.

[dexterlabio]

I think any parallels to 2014 went out the window with the powerful sustained WWB ongoing, something that year thoroughly lacked.

https://i.imgur.com/qTYXfRS.png
There is less ET forcing in 2014 thus the westerlies are weaker in the WPAC, but the WWB along the equator (especially near the dateline) is a lot stronger in 2014, at least through March.

^this year's strong WWBs only started kicking in late March to be fair. It even seemed like the forecast for a strong WWBs in March would not verify with the prevailing easterlies earlier that month.

If there is something I would give to 2014, that would be the enormous subsurface warm pool, which probably gave many people the impression that a strong El Niño was coming then. Even this year can't hold a candle to it.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/severeweatherEU/status/2042193338481185211

[Kingarabian]

I think any parallels to 2014 went out the window with the powerful sustained WWB ongoing, something that year thoroughly lacked.

https://i.imgur.com/qTYXfRS.png
There is less ET forcing in 2014 thus the westerlies are weaker in the WPAC, but the WWB along the equator (especially near the dateline) is a lot stronger in 2014, at least through March.

Also 2014 had a much better PDO/PMM configuration along with an insane subsurface. What delayed the 2014 El Niño was the SOI which was +6 for April and +4 for May. But it setup the 2015 Super El Nino perfectly.

[Kingarabian]

Models also finally showing pressure near Tahiti dropping for most of April. That should tank the SOI if it happens.

Per the models the SOI should continue tanking for the rest of April and April will likely be the most negative SOI since the spring of 2024.

Looks like Cyclone Maila will not track near Australia as much as previously forecast by the GFS.

[cycloneye]

La Niña is over and Neutral will be present for a short time. El Niño has a 61% chance to appear between May and July.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[zzzh]

I plotted U850 anomalies for March-April 1997, 2014 and 2015, with the colorbar from MJ Ventrice (the one you usually see).

[Ntxw]

Getting into better view now. After mid April we will see much more advanced warming in EPAC portion of the tropical Pacific, ENSO 3.4 and 3 will feel the effects of the WWBs. The weekly readings should steadily increase at a faster pace.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/hausfath/status/2042653667463946646

[Ntxw]

While the SPAC cyclones were impressive on their own merit, Typhoon Sinlaku may be the signature cyclone early onset of this El Nino event.

[Yellow Evan]

While the SPAC cyclones were impressive on their own merit, Typhoon Sinlaku may be the signature cyclone early onset of this El Nino event.

All time WWB from a TC production standpoint. We haven't gotten dual ~mid-grade Category 4s or better from a WWB since December 1990.