TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Toadstool]

This was something that was just on TV, but I was noticing this driving around looking for shorter gas lines yesterday... there are so many homes/businesses which are having their roofs repaired, and the workers have just left the piles of ceramic tiles on the roof unsecured. I'm amazed they didn't take them off early Monday and now they are showing on TV they're scrambling to just throw them off the roofs before the storm hits.

[gatorcane]

I see a wobble/nudge/jump north in the last frame:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Also symmetry is looking excellent and outflow continues to improve, its only a matter of time before the pressure starts to drop and winds go up...

[Colossus]

I'm looking at a GARP radar loop. My cursor position gives me a lat/lon readout. I place the center near 23.7N/79.9W. That's a tad east of the NHC track, but within the range of possible error in the location of the center.

Agreed..

You folks have a link for that GARP Radar Loop ?

[One Eye]

I'm also seeing the center about 20 miles or so north of the cuban coast running parallel to the coast where a new flare up is beginning. If you focus on the thunderstorms to the north and northeast there is just a slight rotation which is a MSC of thunderstorms.

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing a much better Dvorak symmetry by the minute. The storm has become much more round in just the last hour. And it isn't over the Gulf Stream yet.

Time to start musing the possibility of rapid intensification!

(Also detecting possible jog N in last frames)

[shaggy]

If the center reforms to the NE under some of the heavier convection then i would be more concerned about the 2nd landfall as the track would shift slightly east keeping the center over water longer before the SC maybe NC landfall.Hard to get a fix on a possible center right now but we just have to keep watching and waiting it will be interesting to see if it reforms tho that could change alot of things

[wxman57]

wxman i believe that to be pretty close as well...looks to be around 305 heading?

Hard to tell, the center is too far away from radar to see it 1 hour ago. but it does look to be at least 305 degrees if not more.

[deltadog03]

best way to help view this is with radar.

[Sanibel]

Just thinking that myself NC.

Not sure.

[gatorcane]

Look at what the storm has become in just 12 hours - amazing how quickly things change once he got off the Cuban cigars and starting gulping some 86-88F Atlantic waters.

[gtalum]

I'm also seeing the center about 20 miles or so north of the cuban coast running parallel to the coast

I don't think that's the center.

[JPmia]

This was something that was just on TV, but I was noticing this driving around looking for shorter gas lines yesterday... there are so many homes/businesses which are having their roofs repaired, and the workers have just left the piles of ceramic tiles on the roof unsecured. I'm amazed they didn't take them off early Monday and now they are showing on TV they're scrambling to just throw them off the roofs before the storm hits.

they are required to secure these roof materials...if they damage stuff they can be sued....looks like the storm is finally getting better organized...hell just look at it....i guess this is the lag from appearance to actual data justifying the intensification. How much can he strengthen before landfall?

[sponger]

Last IR looking real impressive.

[LeeJet]

This is what Ernesto will look like in about 5-7 hours:

http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/movies/ ... 00zani.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anyone know what time this is projected to make landfall eastern time???

Thanx, just trying to get an idea of how many hours it has to strengthen.

[fox13weather]

fox13weather,

Your consequences may be lost credibility. Another's consequences could be lost life or property. Again, I appreciate all the view's and opinions of my local forecasters. But, I personally think it is irresponsible for anyone who knows that their words are going to be taken verbatum to take any such stance without a caveat. That's the main point I wanted to make. Nobody's perfect and predicting the weather is certainly not a perfect science. (Heck, I don't think any of us nailed this storm early on!) I will always defer to those who know more than me about it. Some folks defer completely. For those who believe that the science is so modern and perfect now... the weatherguys have to be careful to remind those people that it is not perfect yet and acknowledge that there is at least the possibility that they may be wrong as new data comes in when dealing with poteentially life threatening situations. -just my opinion.

We ALWAYS explain that forecasting is an inexact sceince. I am not going to fill my on air time with a lot of coulds, shoulds, maybes, not sures. In most cases we are pretty darn accurate in cases that we are not we are quick to correct ourselves BEFORE there is any potential loss of life. the meteorologists that do not have credibility are those that sweep the mistakes under the rug without acknowledging them. I am not one of them.

[gatorcane]

Last IR looking real impressive.

some new thunderstorms getting going right near the center now - here is where things get really interesting folks. For the next 12 hours while it is over water......

[Toadstool]

Look at what the storm has become in just 12 hours - amazing how quickly things change once he got off the Cuban cigars and starting gulping some 86-88F Atlantic waters.

Yes, last night listening to IPR, there was no center to be found for a while and they really were having trouble finding the storm. It's really come together fast!

[SWFLA_CANE]

wxman i believe that to be pretty close as well...looks to be around 305 heading?

Hard to tell, the center is too far away from radar to see it 1 hour ago. but it does look to be at least 305 degrees if not more.

Does 305 degrees mean more of a northerly heading?

[gatorcane]