TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[Aquawind]

Look for 60 mph on the next advisory. The way the CDO is developing, I think there's a 60-80% shot that Ernesto will reach hurricane strength at landfall. Pressure may drop to 985mb or so. This will produce a 3-4 ft storm surge on the Carolina coast east of the center.

There sure is a lot of crow around here lately...


PS... There's a very small chance, very very small, that WXMAN57 is WAAAAAAAAAAAY more accurate than me.

FYI, This kind of talk is not needed and will not be tolerated here.

[Josephine96]

I'm thinking they'll intensify it in moderation.. that's why I chose those forecasts/obs

[shaggy]

i wonder if he has even tasted the gulf stream yet and he has a long ride along it so it not out of the question for this to reach hurricane strength and surprise alot of people and theres NO time to evac anyone along the coast so if he does pop and go cane lets hope he doesnt explode and become a cat 2 or something

[BensonTCwatcher]

I ate a lot of crow when E was in the Carrib, not much when he made FL landfall till now. The GFS and GFDL have been pretty good with this system. Yeterday it had it below 1000mb just off the FL coast. I guess everyone was tired of watching this.

FL folks know when a TC is a "bad position" from the climo etc. as a storm approaches the peninsula. Same thing for NC/SC folks. Any TC that passes/will pass close to JAX this time of year is Trouble up here. Climo plus shape of coastline plus Gulfstream plus closed circ usually equals from a TC to CAT2 'purt near Cape Fear ....uh to be somwhat scientific.

[drezee]

Looks like the NHC will be playing catch up all day on this one! I would have sent out a special advisory at 1200Z for hurricane warnings. Are we expecting people to evacuate and open shelters in 12 hours. People need to be out of their mobile homes.

[seahawkjd]

So is the GFDL still handling the storm as well as it was? Is there another trend East or is it just being the outlier?

[dgparent]

From WRAL in Raleigh

Tropical Storm Ernesto was doing just what forecasters said it would Thursday as it slowly strengthened over the Atlantic and appeared ready come ashore again.

Landfall was expected later Thursday, most likely in South Carolina, forecasters said.

Maximum sustained winds were close to 55 mph on Thursday morning, and the storm was expected to reach the 74 mph needed for hurricane status.

Forecasters predicted rain totals of 4 to 8 inches from northeast South Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic states. Experts said they're more worried about the storm's rainfall than its winds.

[UpTheCreek]

Can someone give me some links to some decent satellite loops? Have good ones on my desktop, but I have nothing in my new laptop! Much appreciated!

[shaggy]

So is the GFDL still handling the storm as well as it was? Is there another trend East or is it just being the outlier?

dont think it matters to the NHC is going to stick to their guns now and not move the track much.But if that GFDL run is accurate OH BOY we are in for a decent but small blow here....sats are looking really good and i say maybe even some rapid intensification MAY BE possible

[Wannabewxman79]

Rapid Intensification? Are you talking to Cat. 1 hurricane or something a little bigger?

[GaryOBX]

So is the GFDL still handling the storm as well as it was? Is there another trend East or is it just being the outlier?

The latest model runs are here.

[shaggy]

cat 1 but who knows alex made cat 2 very close to land so dont get complacent and keep a very close eye on it for the rest of day stay tuned......

[nequad]

Not enough time for anything more than CAT 1...but could certainly reach that. Especially if it tracks just slightly east of the official track. If so...Ernie would be over water a bit longer.

Landfall near Cape Fear in about 12-15 hours.

[drezee]

Interesting observation from 41012:
System is moving away, but the winds are steadily increasing. NW wind gusting to 35 knots last hour. I will be very curious to see the next recon. Ernesto may be doing more than advertised.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well, we are down to the nitty gritty here, so to be fair don't expect any model to draw the exact line the center of the eye ( if it has one) will take. I have not looked at the GFDL run to run so I cn't say anything on yet. I will say it is fairly rare climo wise for a storm to take the current NHC track over the GFDL as it is on the latest run, but then we don't usually have a front interacting like we do now.

Just be prepared for a HC, the setup was there 3 days ago...

[Stormavoider]

This storm is looking impressive. Look at the intensity of that feeder band to the east.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-79&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

[Zardoz]

Look at this:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se6ir.html

Impressive intensification...

[shaggy]

Not only are sats looking really impressive people need to start thinking about affects other than wind.At the very least a TON of rain is coming when this storm starts to really interact with the stalled front along with the fact that if you read the SPC severe weather threat most of eastern NC will be in the east side and have the highest threat of tornadoes and this is going to be a big problem i think with a front near by the shear should be enhanced even more!

[wxman57]

I'd estimate a 90% chance Ernesto will be a 75-80 mph hurricane at landfall. NHC better issue hurricane warnings on their next advisory. Ernesto is blowing up very rapidly. Excellent outlfow, overshooting tops over the center. Pressure at landfall 985mb or lower.

[westmoon]

What a change 24 hours makes! Yesterday I was wondering if Ernesto would make it out of Florida and now he is growing by the minute. I sure hope the media in NC & SC are getting the word out or there will be a lot of people ill prepaired for this one.