SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

[southerngale]

It is POURING here! I don't know what the rain rate is, but we're getting some flash flooding quickly. Lots of thunder & lightning too. It doesn't seem to be moving much either.

[southerngale]

15 minutes later and it hasn't slowed down a bit. Still coming down in BUCKETS.

[jasons2k]

why is it when there is interesting weather in the area, the radar is down?

No kidding! Never on a sunny day!

Anyway, NWS said it'd be up at ~7:00PM. They didn't provide a reason for the outage.

[Yankeegirl]

lol... that figures... maybe it overheated?!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just heard some thunder. Looks like a storm cell is building off to my ENE/NE.

[Yankeegirl]

....UPDATE!!..... still sunny here....

[southerngale]

It let up to a lighter rain for about 20 minutes or so, then it started raining hard again. I think it just keeps developing and raining over the same spots.

[vbhoutex]

It let up to a lighter rain for about 20 minutes or so, then it started raining hard again. I think it just keeps developing and raining over the same spots.

That is what radar was showing earlier or at least that there is very little movement in the cells. Looks like our high pressure is holding strong here even though one stray cell developed over Baytown and then went SW across the city.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just got a strong outflow boundry here. It brought another round of 40-45mph wind gusts (identical to what I saw yesterday) and things once again were blowing around everywhere.

[jasons2k]

We are getting one old fashioned pounding here right now. The gutters are gushing like rivers, lots of thunder & lightning, etc.

8:00 PM - The rain guage says 1.25" but I think I got more than that. The HOA just put in a new 8' tall fence right next to my rain guage and the wind was blowing most of the rain against the fence. I need to move it...

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1011 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOBS AND ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS
INLAND ARE IN THE UPPER 80S. SO...SHOULD SEE SOME INLAND ACTIVITY
BEGIN AROUND NOON...WITH SCT ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFT AREAWIDE.
DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE AREA WITH PW`S AROUND 1.8 INCHES. STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PULSE SVR STORMS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO MENTION THE ISOLATED SVR
TSTM POSSIBLITY THIS AFT AND NUDGE POPS UP A LITTLE IN THE SCT
RANGE.

[jasons2k]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
845 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...GULF MOISTURE...AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WHICH COULD CAUSE BRIEF FLOODING PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY CONTINUE
FRIDAY WITH A DECREASED PROBABILITY ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS MAY
HELP INCREASE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SHOULD STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff 6:42 AM:

Active weather days on tap through the weekend.

Strong upper air ridge that has been in place for the past week is giving way to troughing in the upper levels. Cut off upper low over SE CO will drift into E TX over the next several days. Numerous outflow boundaries can be found across the area this morning from yesterday’s convective episode. Air mass is fairly stable this morning, but given quick surface heating into the lower 90’s the air mass will become unstable and supportive of rapid development by early afternoon. PWS are highest along and E of I-45 and reside in the 1.8-2.1 inch range while areas to the W and SW show PWS in the 1.6 inch range and stronger capping on the KCRP sounding.

Expect cumulus field to develop by mid morning and the first storms to pop by early afternoon as convective trigger temps. area exceeded. Seabreeze and baybreeze will be active along with E TX lakebreezes and urban heat cores supporting widespread coverage. Storm motions will be very slow 5-10mph and rainfall rates very high. Some places could easily pick up 2-3 inches of rain in 30 minutes to 1 hour. Boundary collisions and cell mergers may produce short term rainfall rates upwards of 4-5 inches before the storms “rain themselves out”. This is the type of pattern where one place will get several inches of rain and a few miles away just thunder and a few sprinkles.

Severe threat is marginal given CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg by early afternoon. Expect a few storms to pulse to severe levels with wet microburst and downburst being the main threats. A few of the strongest storms may produce small hail.

Upper low over SE CO drifts into E TX over the weekend with stronger lift overspreading a moist air mass. Storms will be possible at almost anytime from Friday afternoon through Sunday with the afternoon and evening most favored. GFS is suggesting MCS formation over C TX Friday evening with a complex possibly affecting the area late Friday into early Saturday…however the models are suffering heavy convective feedback issues and may be way overdoing this event. With that said, history over the past few nights is supporting the MCS idea as this has occurred over WC TX for the past several days.

As long as storms remain disorganized “pop-up variety” during the afternoon any flooding will likely be localized and in urban areas where drainage systems will not be able to handle the intense short term rainfall rate. Concern for flooding will increase if storms become more organize or if a nocturnal MCS affects the region. This time of year with a tropical air mass in place nocturnal MCS activity can be a very real flood danger.

Note: KHGX radar was struck by lightening and is down…hope to be repaired today. Fort Hood Radar is down due to a comms failure. Backup Radars include: Lake Charles, Corpus Christi, Austin/San Antonio, Fort Worth, and Fort Polk

[jasons2k]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO REQUEST THE ASSISTANCE OF PUBLIC SAFETY
OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS IN SEVERE WEATHER DETECTION AND
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.

[jasons2k]

It's about to dump here already!

[jasons2k]

About 30 min. ago:

[southerngale]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC245-141930-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0087.070614T1823Z-070614T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
123 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PORT NECHES...PORT ARTHUR...
NEDERLAND...GROVES...CENTRAL GARDENS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GROVES. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GROVES BY 130 PM CDT...

[Extremeweatherguy]

it's starting to get bad here. Frequent CG lightning bolts, increasing winds and dark clouds in all directions. Looks like I am about to get hit hard! I'll keep everyone updated..

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is one nasty storm! I received 45mph wind gusts, pea to dime size hail and very heavy rainfall as the core passed over about 5 minutes ago. Since then the hail has stopped and the winds are lighter, but the rain is still coming down in buckets!

[Yankeegirl]

Same story, different day... Still sunny here!!!