Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[ronjon]

That settlement point station recorded a 29.79 inches pressure reading at 6 PM. This looks like center of lowest pressure as the circulation center was passing close by this station. What is 29.79? 1010 mb? I would call this system pretty close to a subtropical depression or storm. The Settlement Point winds were sustained as 40 mph+ with gusts to 45 mph at 6 PM.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=spgf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E

[CrazyC83]

Hey Crazy, please explain to everyone why you need Quickscat here? I am real curious.

To see if there is a closed circulation.

[TheShrimper]

Figure it out Windsurfer. Do you think this is gonna get into the gulf by tommorrow afternoon? Come on man, not even a good ?.

[Cape Verde]

Okay, it seems as if we can't agree whether it's tropical, subtropical, already a TD, gonna be a Cat 1, could be a Cat 5, etc.

Maybe it doesn't even exist.

But it sure seems to exist on the radar loops.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I've been looking at data and the LLC is likely closed and has a very high or steep pressure grad. For one the pressure at the "island" ob has risen a few millibars. Which shows it is moving slowly westward at about 3-4 mph. I feel it is closed and has winds up to 35-40 knots.

[TheShrimper]

Crazy, I'll let someone else explain to you why your claim is ridiculous viewing where the disturbance is located. I get to carried away.

[caneman]

Geez Shrimper have a little patience why don't ya? Crazy it is because you can tell by buoys, ships and radar. Quikscat is used further out in the ocean where you wouldn't have these obs.

[Rainband]

Crazy, I'll let someone else explain to you why your claim is ridiculous viewing where the disturbance is located. I get to carried away.

trust me I will let you know if you get carried away

[mattpetre]

I believe if you call someone else's claim ridiculous, it's time to "own up" and explain it yourself if you can.

I do see how quikscat might not be as useful in this environment; however, in the area where Humberto formed it appears that quikscat was pretty useless too... I just don't know exactly what you are getting at and why you would wait for someone else to explain your own point. Seems a bit belligerent for no good reason too.

[Blown Away]

Is it possible the center is farther east than 79W, like near 77W?

[wxman57]

When you have a low that's surrounded by many surface obs, QuikSCAT is of limited value. I zoomed in on southeast Florida to take a peek at 00Z and I see that the surface low appears to be moving SSW with the upper low, as I would expect. Convection is moving south, low moving south. Since earlier models were initialized NW at 4 kts, I'd expect a westward shift overnight away from New Orleans. Upper TX coast to SW LA appears most likely to me. But confidence remains low due to the fact that it hasn't even developed yet. I don't expect it to be really tropical for another 36 hours at the earliest. Looks a lot better than I thought it would at this time, though.

Crosshairs are where the center appears to be (south of 25N). But that ship to the SW could be suspicious as far as pressure. Ships are notorious for having badly calibrated barometers.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here we go - "storm cancel!"

This system isn't a tropical or subtropical storm, but you shouldn't lose hope for development.

We should remind ourselves that the current trend was expected by others and professional meteorologists here. Read Air Force Met's recent analyses. The upper low would initially aid the system, thus enhancing convection and a LLC via baroclinic processes (strong UL divergence). Currently, the upper low is moving away from 93L, and it is providing higher shear while low-level convergence decreases in recent hours. The vast majority of data supported the current decrease in terms of convection. People lifted their hopes too high - look back at Normandy's earlier post. The transition to a subtropical and (eventually) possible tropical entity will be a slow process. Personally, I would not be surprised if we are witnessing the early stages of a LLC relocation. An initial baroclinic sfc low on the E side of an upper low's circulation could easily experience a LLC relocation when convection diminishes near the old circulation (remember that this circulation was broad and weak).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Here's my prediction. Some people (who didn't listen to others' advice) will begin to write off 93L's future prospects. Convection will diminish near the previous low-level circulation, and the upper low will produce additional overnight shear as it moves WSW into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes will not occur until the early morning hours (beyond 6:00 a.m. EDT). A new LLC will possibly reform (gut feeling based on data) further SE in the central Bahamas, and the upper low finally loses its influence over the next several hours. Convection could redevelop during the heat of the day (around ~10:00 a.m.-noon), and folks who lost their faith become shocked when a significant slow "comeback" emerges throughout the day. The weak low may become better defined, and 93L could become a TD or hybrid/subtropical system before it moves over southern FL. The real "show" will begin after its passage over SW Florida and entry into the GOM.

This general scenario (people canceling 93L's prospects) will unfold before our eyes. I can offer one guaranteed fact - people will write off 93L because they held high expectations (immediate gratification). Patience is a virtue. It speaks volumes when another professional meteorologist (wxman57) expected a similar scenario to AFM's thoughts, and he says 93L looks much better than he expected at this hour.

-Miami

[Stormcenter]

It's must pretty bad when so many are having a hard time finding the center. I don't ever
recall a system where so many posted that same question "where's the center"?
Let's be honest here folks it looks pretty pathetic right now and it definitely looks
sub tropical right now.

[Air Force Met]

Hey Crazy, please explain to everyone why you need Quickscat here? I am real curious.

To see if there is a closed circulation.

You might want to go back a few pages. We've talked about this already. There's been a LLC for a while. It was very evident on visible satellite earlier this afternoon...and its also evident in the obs. We don't need QUIKSCAT for this one.

[caneman]

Here we go - "storm cancel!"

This system isn't a tropical or subtropical storm, but you shouldn't lose hope for development.

We should remind ourselves that the current trend was expected by others and professional meteorologists here. Read Air Force Met's recent analyses. The upper low would initially aid the system, thus enhancing convection and a LLC via baroclinic processes (strong UL divergence). Currently, the upper low is moving away from 93L, and it is providing higher shear while low-level convergence decreases in recent hours. The vast majority of data supported the current decrease in terms of convection. People lifted their hopes too high - look back at Normandy's earlier post. The transition to a subtropical and (eventually) possible tropical entity will be a slow process. Personally, I would not be surprised if we are witnessing the early stages of a LLC relocation. An initial baroclinic sfc low on the E side of an upper low's circulation could easily experience a LLC relocation when convection diminishes near the old circulation (remember that this circulation was broad and weak).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Here's my prediction. Some people (who didn't listen to others' advice) will begin to write off 93L's future prospects. Convection will diminish near the previous low-level circulation, and the upper low will produce additional overnight shear as it moves WSW into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes will not occur until the early morning hours (beyond 6:00 a.m. EDT). A new LLC will possibly reform (gut feeling based on data) further SE in the central Bahamas, and the upper low finally loses its influence over the next several hours. Convection could redevelop during the heat of the day (around ~10:00 a.m.-noon), and folks who lost their faith become shocked when a significant slow "comeback" emerges throughout the day. The weak low may become better defined, and 93L could become a TD or hybrid/subtropical system before it moves over southern FL. The real "show" will begin after its passage over SW Florida and entry into the GOM.

This scenario will unfold before our eyes. I can offer one guaranteed fact - people will write off 93L because they held high expectations (immediate gratification). Patience is a virtue. It speaks volumes when another professional meteorologist (wxman57) expected a similar scenario to AFM's thoughts, and he says 93L looks much better than he expected at this hour.

-Miami

Very good post and analysis. Yeah, I didn't comment on the earlier posts of it looks like crap but should have. What is a pre-TD enhanced by a ULL suppose to look like? Many/many storms form this way and do and can go on to be significant events. Come on peeps.

[wxman57]

It's must pretty bad when so many are having a hard time finding the center. I don't ever
recall a system where so many posted that same question "where's the center"?
Let's be honest here folks it looks pretty pathetic right now and it definitely looks
sub tropical right now.

It's just a disturbance on a frontal boundary now, precisely as was predicted it would be today. I'm actually surprised at how well it's organized for so early. I've never expected it to become a TD until Thursday, though there's a slight chance now that it may remain over water and could be classified as a TD or STD tomorrow afternoon. Such systems will be very slow to organize. One thing that's usually lacking on this forum is patience. I'm just enjoying my short 12 hour days for now. Once it develops, I work about 18 hours a day.

[Air Force Met]

I've been looking at data and the LLC is likely closed and has a very high or steep pressure grad. For one the pressure at the "island" ob has risen a few millibars. Which shows it is moving slowly westward at about 3-4 mph. I feel it is closed and has winds up to 35-40 knots.

Any steep pressure gradient of any consequence is not right near the center. If it was some sort of circulation would show up on radar and you would have seen it on satellite before sunset.

As far as a closed LLC...I've been telling you that all afternoon.

[Stormcenter]

Here we go - "storm cancel!"

This system isn't a tropical or subtropical storm, but you shouldn't lose hope for development.

We should remind ourselves that the current trend was expected by others and professional meteorologists here. Read Air Force Met's recent analyses. The upper low would initially aid the system, thus enhancing convection and a LLC via baroclinic processes (strong UL divergence). Currently, the upper low is moving away from 93L, and it is providing higher shear while low-level convergence decreases in recent hours. The vast majority of data supported the current decrease in terms of convection. People lifted their hopes too high - look back at Normandy's earlier post. The transition to a subtropical and (eventually) possible tropical entity will be a slow process. Personally, I would not be surprised if we are witnessing the early stages of a LLC relocation. An initial baroclinic sfc low on the E side of an upper low's circulation could easily experience a LLC relocation when convection diminishes near the old circulation (remember that this circulation was broad and weak).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Here's my prediction. Some people (who didn't listen to others' advice) will begin to write off 93L's future prospects. Convection will diminish near the previous low-level circulation, and the upper low will produce additional overnight shear as it moves WSW into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes will not occur until the early morning hours (beyond 6:00 a.m. EDT). A new LLC will possibly reform (gut feeling based on data) further SE in the central Bahamas, and the upper low finally loses its influence over the next several hours. Convection could redevelop during the heat of the day (around ~10:00 a.m.-noon), and folks who lost their faith become shocked when a significant slow "comeback" emerges throughout the day. The weak low may become better defined, and 93L could become a TD or hybrid/subtropical system before it moves over southern FL. The real "show" will begin after its passage over SW Florida and entry into the GOM.

This general scenario (people canceling 93L's prospects) will unfold before our eyes. I can offer one guaranteed fact - people will write off 93L because they held high expectations (immediate gratification). Patience is a virtue. It speaks volumes when another professional meteorologist (wxman57) expected a similar scenario to AFM's thoughts, and he says 93L looks much better than he expected at this hour.

-Miami

I personally am not writing this off at all but I 'm also not expecting a "show" as you put it once it gets in the Eastern GOM. The ingredients are not all there for a "show" now maybe
in the Western GOM (if it makes it there) but that is still way down the line. IMO

[Stormcenter]

It's must pretty bad when so many are having a hard time finding the center. I don't ever
recall a system where so many posted that same question "where's the center"?
Let's be honest here folks it looks pretty pathetic right now and it definitely looks
sub tropical right now.

It's just a disturbance on a frontal boundary now, precisely as was predicted it would be today. I'm actually surprised at how well it's organized for so early. I've never expected it to become a TD until Thursday, though there's a slight chance now that it may remain over water and could be classified as a TD or STD tomorrow afternoon. Such systems will be very slow to organize. One thing that's usually lacking on this forum is patience. I'm just enjoying my short 12 hour days for now. Once it develops, I work about 18 hours a day.

At this moment as things stand are you expecting anything more then TS or minimal Hurr. out this or am I stretching it there?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess anything is possible, but it is getting awfully late in September for Texas. Maybe near he Sabine River, we are close to the time of Rita. And we've had a good front a couple of days ago. Didn't drop temps much, still close to daytime highs near 90ºF (32ºC), but cool in the morning and comfortable humidity.


Of course, 1949 had a hurricane on October 3rd near Freeport, TX, and minimal Cat 1 Jerry was a Texas October storm. So it wouldn't be the Sun rising in the West kinda weirod.


But I, in my uneducated opinion, feel like this lands in Louisiana. But since the models keep it going WNW to NW 1) some weather probably gets to Texas, at least Northeast Texas and 2) if the center forms up South of where expected, or doesn't come quite as North as expected early on, it would be interesting.