Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Kennethb]

With the GFS hardly showing a frost much less a freeze or even a long range phantom snow storm here in the coldest and what should be the most wintry part of winter, I guess we can only dream and reminisce about winter weather of the past and future.

It was 25 years ago to day of a surprise 3 inch snow here in Baton Rouge.

Keep in mind this was before the internet. We did have the weather channel. But the only radar readily available here was one that made a sweep every couple of minutes.

On Thursday evening February 4 as I got home from work we had some ice pellets falling at the beginning of a classic overrunning with low pressure developing on the front in the Gulf event. The temp was about 41.

It must have rained most of the night because the next day it was very wet with standing water/puddles all over. And it was still raining with temps in the upper 30’s or so.

On Friday February 5 I was at work. Around 11:30 or so I went to a store around the corner for a drink. When I got back in the car I noticed a few of the wettest of all snowflakes mixing in with the moderate rain.

I think a few sleet pellets were mixed. Over the course of the next half hour a few more flakes mixed in. This went on most of the early afternoon: Rain with snow mixed. Some times the flakes were more pronounced and sometimes less.

But as the afternoon wore the mix became more flakes and less rain. These were the big wet flakes you get with temps in the mid 30’s. Eventually the mix became all snow. Because of the 1-2 inches of rain the previous night and during the day most of the snow melted upon contact. As evening approached it became a good moderate to heavy snow that eventually began to stick. By nightfall it was sticking well. We also had thunder snow. The airport recorded about 3.1 inches total. It ended around 11: 00 pm.

Interestingly enough the evening forecast had a 20% chance of freezing rain or sleet for Sunday.

Saturday was sunny with temps in the 40’s. Saturday night the temps dropped to the low 20’s under clear skies and a snow pack of ¼” to perhaps 1/2” in places.

Sunday brought one of the dream scenerios where you have clear skies at night with clouds moving in as the sun rises.

I turned on the radar and saw a mass of precipitation across the west part of the state moving east. As the sun rose the high cirrus clouds moved over and thickened. Around 9:00 am or so a few small flakes began making it to the surface. This was a different snow than we usually see here and the second time I can recall snow starting as snow. This snow was coming from the cirrus and the cirrus stratus and needed some time to moisten the column. The snow was dry and mostly light with moderate snow at the height. The trough was stronger in the west part of the state as I think Lake Charles may have gotten an inch or two. It weakened as it got to Baton Rouge but still we managed about 3 hours of snow falling, though the air port only recorded it as a trace.

Still this is a reminder that it has and will snow again one day down south. Could be later this month, even March or maybe not for another 10 years. And a reminder that snow events are hard to predict and there is always a chance for surprises.

[mitchelliii]

**Stomps feet for HEAVY snow in Georgia by the end of FEB.**

Just saying...

When it comes and you speak of me, please speak of me nicely.

Cheers!

[Lane]

Too far out, though models are suggesting some type of Winter prep for sat-sun.

[northjaxpro]

Too far out, though models are suggesting some type of Winter prep for sat-sun.

Well Lane, at the time of your post above, the models then were hinting at that possibility. Now, as of this morning, the models have come into better consenus of a rather vigorous vort max swinging down through the base of a deepening upper level trough on Saturday. As the cold advection ensues during the next 24 -36 hours across the Southeast U.S. and the vort max moves through the region, it appears that enough moisture and partial thicknesses values will support squeezing out some light snow/ snow flurries across portions of AL, GA and into the Carolinas.

I think the models have not had a good handle in the forecasting of the sharpening of the upper trough across the Eastern U.S. There is a distinct possibility that the trough may beome more negatively tilted quicker than initially thought, thus more of a potential of seeing more wintry precip on Saturday into Saturday evening across the Carolinas. Should this scenario happen, it would not surprise me at all to see accumulating snow, especially across the midlands of SC, and the Piedmont and eastern areas of NC. Also, if the negative tilt phase happens, cyclogenesis could also begin to occur closer to the SC/NC coast late Saturday before it pulls away northeastward off the U.S. East Coast.

A very interesting scenario worth watching indeed potentially tomorrow in areas of the Deep South for wintry precip considering that we haven't had this pattern set-up for virtually the entire winter season in this part of the country.

[Tstormwatcher]

Our local met thinks that although there appears to be enough moisture to produce accumulating snow, with the very warm ground temps we may only see it sticking to roofs, bridges, and vehicles. We will wait and see though.

[northjaxpro]

Charlotte, NC -Douglas International Airport is reporting thunder and heavy snow and 32 degrees at this hour. The storm system off the NC coast is beginning to get energized and strengthen as it begins to pull way to the northeast tonight into Sunday. 2-3 inch accumulations are now being forecasted in and around Charlotte metro area and across portions of eastern NC before the storm system pulls away from that region late tonight.

Also, sleet was reported in Brunswick, GA around 2:00 this afternoon as the arctic front was moving through Southeast GA.

[Tstormwatcher]

Snowing in much of eastern NC except extreme coastal areas.

[Tstormwatcher]

Well, we got maybe 1/2 inch even though it snowed for 4 to 5 hours. Ground temp was way to high plus air temp hovered around 34 most of the evening. We were disappointed.

[northjaxpro]

My best friend who resides in Charlotte informed me of measuring 4 inches of snow that fell there back on Saturday.

[mitchelliii]

Does anyone else see the same type of weather patterns for the southeast as the ones in 1982 and 1993. Wishful thinking - you bet. Possible to get a rogue snowstorm in NE Atlanta this year - I dont know.

[Lane]

I have noticed a couple that resemble 93. But wishful I would say.

[wolfpack2105]

got about 3 inches in south Charlotte on Saturday, all of which came in about a 1 hour burst. It was amazing...looked like a blizzard.

[mitchelliii]

**Stomps feet for HEAVY snow in Georgia by the end of FEB.**

Just saying...

When it comes and you speak of me, please speak of me nicely.

Cheers!

UPDATE: Now changing this for MARCH and adding the addition of ICE.

[Tstormwatcher]

Definitely do not want to see ice, but would still like a good ole snowstorm.

[cycloneye]

Wow for the Deep South if this pans out!

[northjaxpro]

Next weekend looks potentially very interesting across the Deep South. A very anomalously deep upper level 500mb trough is forecast in very good agreement with the GFS and Euro models to develop across the Eastern CONUS. Finally, it appears that a -NAO set-up will evolve by next weekend, with the classic "Omega/Rex blocking" pattern setting up. If you are to believe the models and if they do verify by next weekend, some of the coldest temps of the winter season may occur over the Deep South. The extent of how cold it will get we probably won't know until we get til about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

However, GFS in this morning's run depicted 850 mb temp diving down to around -10 Celsius deep down into Alabama and Georgia, which would be by far the coldest values of the entire winter season across the region should that verify.

Still about six days off, but winter is not over yet for the Deep South. An interesting week ahead.

[mitchelliii]

...And now the cold has arrived. Next - need precip.

[Tstormwatcher]

Looks like major nor'easter will be moving up the coast midweek next week.

[BigB0882]

Someone in my Facebook feed posted about snow flurries around 8:30 around Baton Rouge. Any other reports? I was in bed, lol

[supercane4867]

Late-March snow coming?...nice