Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

ok here it is... i know there might be ALOT of disagreement with some on this but iam
going with the southern track feel strongly this is the more likely scenario. this will take both the
ice & snow into the dfw metroplex & points south, will also give the dfw area the chance of ice accums
up to 1/2"

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[katheria]

Plot thickens...btw this is from FW

50 miles futher to the SE will make a big differnce for DFW area

Crossing fingers heheeh, im fine with driving in ice and snow..

even thou it was before my time id like to see a repeat of January 15-16, 1964 (dreaming)

[Portastorm]

msstateguy83 ... I don't like your map at all. Where's Austin??!!

C'mon dude ... give us some love in your state capital.

All kidding aside, you obviously believe in a very far south track of the low ... even further south than any model run we have seen thus far. What is leading you to that conclusion? Trend? Stronger polar vortex shoving the boundary further south?

[msstateguy83]

iam going on a stronger pv shove then forecast i just feel it will stay down into
central tx.. i would almost bet for reference no track north of say brownwood,texas.
we will see how this all pans out over the next 24 hrs or so but a southern trend i would
almost bet on.


EDIT: SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY HERE AS I SAID EARLYER HEAVY SNOW PACK UP NORTH IN THE
MIDWEST AS THE FRONT COMES IN I FEEL TEMPS WILL DROP LITERLY LIKE A ROCK QUICKLY FROM THE PUSH
OF THE COLD AIR, SNOWPACK UP NORTH. WE WILL HAVE FRZING RAIN IT WILL BE A PROBLEM, BIG PROB IN
SOME AREAS BUT IT WILL NOT KEEP THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN, I WOULD EXPECT SOME VERY VERY HIGH
SNOW TOTALS IN SOME AREAS BORDER LINE ON INSANE FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS HAVE ALSO SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FURTHER PROBLEMS
INTO FRI...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[gboudx]

I like your boldness msstateguy. 3-6" for us eastplexers? I'll put out the weather rock and see what it says.

[Ntxw]

Check out temperatures in Siberia. Should the cross polar flow setup sometime in February no lacking cold source =P

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/AS/pxTemperature.html

[WacoWx]

msstateguy83 ... I don't like your map at all. Where's Austin??!!

C'mon dude ... give us some love in your state capital.

All kidding aside, you obviously believe in a very far south track of the low ... even further south than any model run we have seen thus far. What is leading you to that conclusion? Trend? Stronger polar vortex shoving the boundary further south?

and Waco? what gives?

i am all for -removed-. this isnt wunderground where people are shunned for hoping. keep it up msstate, and everyone else who is contributing any info whatsoever. whether its right or not is up to futureman.

[srainhoutx]

iam going on a stronger pv shove then forecast i just feel it will stay down into
central tx.. i would almost bet for reference no track north of say brownwood,texas.
we will see how this all pans out over the next 24 hrs or so but a southern trend i would
almost bet on.


EDIT: SEVERAL THINGS COME INTO PLAY HERE AS I SAID EARLYER HEAVY SNOW PACK UP NORTH IN THE
MIDWEST AS THE FRONT COMES IN I FEEL TEMPS WILL DROP LITERLY LIKE A ROCK QUICKLY FROM THE PUSH
OF THE COLD AIR, SNOWPACK UP NORTH. WE WILL HAVE FRZING RAIN IT WILL BE A PROBLEM, BIG PROB IN
SOME AREAS BUT IT WILL NOT KEEP THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN, I WOULD EXPECT SOME VERY VERY HIGH
SNOW TOTALS IN SOME AREAS BORDER LINE ON INSANE FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS HAVE ALSO SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FURTHER PROBLEMS
INTO FRI...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Link please or are these your thoughts? Caps can be confused with an "official NWS product" output, so be very careful with that if these are your thoughts. Just a friendly reminder msstateguy83. We do have to be careful about these type issues and not to curb your enthusiasm or forecasting skills.

[msstateguy83]

totally understand srainhoutx... my thoughts for the record and that is all... sry for the all caps

[CaptinCrunch]

I like your boldness msstateguy. 3-6" for us eastplexers? I'll put out the weather rock and see what it says.

My Wx rock lives outside, and hates it when it dont snow on it, or when the dog pees on it, it no like that at all....lmao

[srainhoutx]

totally understand srainhoutx... my thoughts for the record and that is all... sry for the all caps

No problem.

[Ntxw]

Gotta love his (msstateguy) enthusiasm and willingness to say it lol kind of the antithesis to our pro mets. Nice to be balanced afterall you know

[Weatherdude20]

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd ok

[Weatherdude20]

Thanks for everyones support, and lets all thank Msstateguy for his work.


This Potent Winter Storm brewing has the potential to be as powerfull has the Christmas Eve Storm or stronger. As of now, Areas North of 1-20 to Red River could see 4-6 Inches of Snow from Thursday afternoon to Friday. Changeover should occur NorthWest to SouthEast from Gainseville to Decatur to Mineral Wells by 5:00pm and from Sherman to Denton to Fort Worth line around 6:00 all snow. Approaching the Dallas area at 7:00 pm with temps hovering around 32. Along and south of Interstate 20, at this time you could pick up 1-3 inches of Snow Accumulation. This can or may change from now to then, Lack of data applies. Data from the Low will become moire avalible post landfall, which is expected around this evening.

Furthermore: Expectations Thursday... Temps starting around mid- to lower 50's droping steadily througout the day. This will cause a cold rain, until 5:00 pm then possibly a light mix gradually changing over by 7:00.

Note: A Heavier swath of Snow bands will persist causing snow Drifting, Blowing Snow, and heavier accumulations from Amarillo to Childress, and again from Oklahoma City to Ardmore, Oklahoma. These Bullseye locations may need a stronger Warning issued in the coming days. A Winter Advisory may be neccesary for the DFW area Thursday afternoon.

Our Western and northern counties we will need to keep a close eye on.

I will agree the NWS is downplaying this event as always, but please be understanding, as a national oraganiztion they can't predict a major Texas Snow Storm and be wrong about it so they must be conservative about it.

Please stay tuned, after a nap, with Mild temps persiting for 2 weeks Winter will awaken Thursday.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxwx]

@ Weatherdude and Msstateguy, and all other Mets, thank you so much for keeping us informed, and up to date on what we can expect.

[Ntxw]

The 18z nam so far is already showing signs of being further south with the onslaught of precip. Should temps follow can't really tell with what's available yet.

[Weatherdude20]

The 18z nam so far is already showing signs of being further south with the onslaught of precip. Should temps follow can't really tell with what's available yet.

What we Winter wishers should be hoping for is the Low to stall out a bit, giving the Polar front more time to settle in and cool temps off a bit.

[msstateguy83]

the reason we should all be watching this so so so closely is ok say the otherside of the arguement is
right temps very well could stay above frzing for a good peroid of time in dfw meaning all cold rain, so
that could be true. the other side of the coin however is you get that cold air in abit early and all that
rain turns into either frz rain or one hell of a snow storm. i mean i dont think anyone can deny that
if these amts that are now forecast to be rain was snow this would be insane as far as how high the
snowfall totals could be.

[CaptinCrunch]

Low should slow due to the southern track and a more easterly path

[katheria]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 262021
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
221 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS LLJ STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS. UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
COLD AIR SPREADS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE SURFACE WAVE FORMS OUT WEST AND
TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES
EAST OF I-35...THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH
TEXAS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...STRONG WAA AND JET SPEED
DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TRANSITION TO FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT SPREADS EAST THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...WE FEEL ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH AS DRY SLOT INTRUSION (ALOFT) SHUTS DOWN THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MECHANICS. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...FREEZING DRIZZLE
SHOULD BEGIN. THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE POSITIVE TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SNOW AREA COMES INTO NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO
INCREASE WITH SOME CAPE SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT STRONG SHEAR COULD CAUSE SOME
TO BECOME MARGINAL SEVERE OR SEVERE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-20/I-30 ON FRIDAY WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TURNING WINDY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
WAVE.

WE STILL FEEL THE LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A PROBLEM BY THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING AS EXTENDED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCUR. AVERAGE STORM TOTAL QPF IS CURRENTLY AT 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING UP TO THREE INCHES OR MORE