Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

And this one is for Rgv20 and Big O and the rest of our Valley friends ... it is NWSFO Brownsville:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...WILL ALLOW
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING
FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FROM THE TEMPS
FRI MORNING. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE A MIX OF RAIN...LIGHT SNOW...AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE TEMPS FROM
DAYTIME THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRI
NIGHT AS THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF DRAWS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MEX/ECX
MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED COLDER IF THE SKIES
CLEAR OUT AS THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ADVERTISING TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING.
THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO INCREASE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LIKE
THE GFS SO WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

When the Winter Storm Watch is hoisted, I will pop the Grey Goose bottle and pour a drink and swirl it gently in anticipation.

[Portastorm]

And here is the latest from Fort Worth:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...


WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF A COMANCHE TO TEMPLE LINE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY
FOR SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL
SURROUND THIS AREA OUT TO AN EASTLAND TO GLEN ROSE...WACO AND
CAMERON LINE.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH SULPHUR SPRINGS...WAXAHACHIE...
GRANBURY AND EASTLAND AS OF 2 PM WHILE THE MAIN SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE LEAD
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. TEMPS WILL
NOT WARM MUCH OF THURSDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WE EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 850
AND 700 MB AND MODERATE LIFT BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHILE THE DENDRITIC ZONE IS SATURATED. TO ADD TO THIS
PROCESS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. WE
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SLEET
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE ADVISORY AREA. A TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW COULD OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ON
FRIDAY...THE PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AS
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A
TEMPLE TO PALESTINE LINE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING BY
SUNSET. WE HAVE ALSO ADDED SNOW FLURRIES TO THE MIX NORTHWARD TO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MIDDAY.

IT WILL TURN MUCH WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...THEN AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

[Tireman4]

When the Winter Storm Watch is hoisted, I will pop the Grey Goose bottle and pour a drink and swirl it gently in anticipation.

Ok...open it up...


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A COLD FRONT WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY AND
THEN BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE RIDING OVER
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY THEN CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET. AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE MAY EXPERIENCE
A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET EARLY FRIDAY. AREAS TO THE SOUTH INCLUDING
HOUSTON MAY EXPERIENCE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON EXPECTED ICE ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA.

TXZ176>178-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-231000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T2100Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-SAN JACINTO-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...
TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...
WILLIS...WINNIE
310 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...MAINLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING TOMORROW
WHERE AREAS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN A EIGHTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. ADVISORIES MAY REPLACE PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOWER.

* THREAT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OF 0.05 TO
0.15 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[ndale]

NWS finally changed my point forecast to:

Thursday Night
A chance of rain before 11pm, then a chance of rain and sleet between 11pm and midnight, then a chance of sleet after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 26. North northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday
A chance of snow and sleet before noon, then a slight chance of rain between noon and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%

[TexasSam]

"Winter Storm Watch"

Time for people to go nuts in the store and buy all the bread, milk & water. LOL!

[Tireman4]

"Winter Storm Watch"

Time for people to go nuts in the store and buy all the bread, milk & water. LOL!

Yep they do in it North Carolina ( Lived in Raleigh and Durham for 11 years...they..by the way just had snow yesterday afternoon and evening)..it is like Nuclear Winter when it snows...

[Portastorm]

NWS finally changed my point forecast to:

Thursday Night
A chance of rain before 11pm, then a chance of rain and sleet between 11pm and midnight, then a chance of sleet after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 26. North northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday
A chance of snow and sleet before noon, then a slight chance of rain between noon and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%

If the Austin area receives at least a half inch of a wintry mix, there is no way in God's green earth (or white earth) that it'll reach 36 unless the clouds clear in the afternoon and the sun comes out. Every single time we have had wintry weather, I've watched forecasted highs bust badly because forecasters looked at the forecasted grid numbers and didn't use their noggin' to realize that with cloud cover and frozen stuff on the ground the temps would stay colder. Just sayin'.

[Big O]

I know we have something in front of us now, but I checked the snowfall output off the 12z Canadian (yes, I know its the Canadian) and it shows ungodly amounts of snow across much of western (Del Rio), central, and southern Texas beginning around hour 150 (Tuesday of next week). Doubt this verifies, but we should pay attention to see if any other models begin latching onto some sort of disturbance or shortwave in that time range. Stated differently, my attempt at "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again."

[Tireman4]

I know we have something in front of us now, but I checked the snowfall output off the 12z Canadian (yes, I know its the Canadian) and it shows ungodly amounts of snow across much of western (Del Rio), central, and southern Texas. Doubt this verifies, but we should pay attention to see if any other models begin latching onto some sort of disturbance or shortwave in that time range. Stated differently, my attempt at "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again."

I think that is why Wxman 57 wanted to wait until the 12Z Models came out Thursday before jumping on board. It is looking more and more likely we will see wintery precipitation. Now, it is what form, where and for how long?

[ndale]

NWS finally changed my point forecast to:

Thursday Night
A chance of rain before 11pm, then a chance of rain and sleet between 11pm and midnight, then a chance of sleet after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 26. North northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday
A chance of snow and sleet before noon, then a slight chance of rain between noon and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%

If the Austin area receives at least a half inch of a wintry mix, there is no way in God's green earth (or white earth) that it'll reach 36 unless the clouds clear in the afternoon and the sun comes out. Every single time we have had wintry weather, I've watched forecasted highs bust badly because forecasters looked at the forecasted grid numbers and didn't use their noggin' to realize that with cloud cover and frozen stuff on the ground the temps would stay colder. Just sayin'.

It sounds like they are being their usual conservative self on this forecast.

[Big O]

I know we have something in front of us now, but I checked the snowfall output off the 12z Canadian (yes, I know its the Canadian) and it shows ungodly amounts of snow across much of western (Del Rio), central, and southern Texas. Doubt this verifies, but we should pay attention to see if any other models begin latching onto some sort of disturbance or shortwave in that time range. Stated differently, my attempt at "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again."

I think that is why Wxman 57 wanted to wait until the 12Z Models came out Thursday before jumping on board. It is looking more and more likely we will see wintery precipitation. Now, it is what form, where and for how long?

Sorry, I wasn't clear in my post. I was referring to the time period beginning around Hour 150. It's been edited.

[Tireman4]

I know we have something in front of us now, but I checked the snowfall output off the 12z Canadian (yes, I know its the Canadian) and it shows ungodly amounts of snow across much of western (Del Rio), central, and southern Texas. Doubt this verifies, but we should pay attention to see if any other models begin latching onto some sort of disturbance or shortwave in that time range. Stated differently, my attempt at "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again."

I think that is why Wxman 57 wanted to wait until the 12Z Models came out Thursday before jumping on board. It is looking more and more likely we will see wintery precipitation. Now, it is what form, where and for how long?

Sorry, I wasn't clear in my post. I was referring to the time period beginning around Hour 150. It's been edited.

No no, that is quite alright. Heck, I have no clue what we (northern burbs of Houston) are going to get. This is a crapshoot....

[CaptinCrunch]

Wxman57 better get the snow tires or some chains for his daily bike ride.....lol

[Ntxw]

We want pictures! Not every day the Red River Valley experiences winter storms through the lens of South Texas folks, we must take advantage before the heat miser returns and radiates heat, drought, and everything else evil!

[Portastorm]

Well I'll be darned ... EWX has us (Austin) under a Winter Storm Watch!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
349 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS WELL UNDER WAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S. MUCH WARMER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...TO UPPER 30S NORTH. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTH TX WILL CONTINUE
TO NEAR THE NRN CWA BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN PUSH THRU MUCH OF THE CWA
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. NELY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL
RESULT IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS S TX DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH FALLING OR STEADY TEMPERATURES. COMBINATION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE COLD AIR MASS AND MINOR DISTURBANCES IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL CHANGE
OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
BEGINNING AT NOON THURSDAY THRU MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THRU NOON FRIDAY AS STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH A TRACE TO ONE HALF
INCH ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
90 WEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND I10 EAST OF SAN ANTONIO COULD SEE LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OF ONE-TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE DEPTH OF FREEZING AIR WILL BE MORE SHALLOW ACROSS THIS
AREA AND MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A WINTRY MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN.

THE 18Z NAM/12Z NMM-EAST HAVE THE HIGHER STORM TOTAL QPF/SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH SOME 1-2 INCH/1-3 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY RESPECTIVELY. THE 12Z ARW-EAST/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATE MUCH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OVER THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING
AS A DRIER NWLY FLOW REDEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING WINTER PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA/COASTAL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING ALL
AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S WEST. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY AS NWLY FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT. WINDY/DRY MONDAY...COLDER MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THEN NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

[Texas Snowman]

Kids, kids, kids. Everybody needs to calm down.

We all know that our Heat Miser has spoken in recent days. And as he has done for years, he has assured us that there is nothing to get excited about.

Especially this month and probably not until about the second week of February!

[jerryh421]

Does it not look like areas north of Houston will get anything?

[Ntxw]

He, heat lord, is a Feb 1899er. Talk about cold monger closet case jeesh!

[Portastorm]

PWC ISSUES GREY GOOSE WATCH

The Portastorm Weather Center today issued a Grey Goose Watch for much of the State of Texas to be in effect from 6 p.m. Thursday through 6 p.m. Friday. PWC meteorologists explained that a Grey Goose Watch means conditions are possible that the weather outside may be vodka-like cold with possible wintry precipitation.

“We anticipate that come Friday morning, areas of Texas from San Angelo to the southern outskirts of Dallas, down to Houston, back out west to Hondo, and up to San Angelo again … the entire area is likely to see their first winter storm since 2011,” said the lead PWC meteorologist. “Conditions look increasingly likely that we’ll see a mix of sleet and freezing rain in the southeastern half of that box and sleet and snow in the northwestern half. Precip amounts will be heavier the further south and east you go.”

Reporters questioned the PWC lead met about recent reports that a certain private-sector meteorologist in Houston had taken control of the weather. The PWC responded with: “That person … that Heat Miser … is on the run right now. He knows winter is coming to Texas and all of his meteograms won’t be able to stop it. Despite his forecasts of warmth and no winter weather to speak of, we know better. His time is up!”

The PWC lead met could not explain Heat Miser’s absence from the press conference, despite having a labeled chair set aside for him in the front row.

The lead met then turned things over to a staff meteorologist who went only by the name of “Ntxw.” This young met walked reporters through a impressive, lively, and information-packed Powerpoint show which supported the PWC’s latest forecast. Ntxw indicated that this is just the first of several potential winter weather events in Texas over the next few weeks. He reminded reporters: “Don’t forget the old PWC slogan of ‘you want snow, you got it!’ ”

PWC mets indicated that the current Watch status may be upgraded to Warning status as soon as late tonight/early tomorrow, depending on the latest computer model solutions and PWC weather intuition.