ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Tower starting to come up

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/SarasotaPD/status/1326567529981079554




 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1326595238329278465




 https://twitter.com/jpetramala/status/1326596609833136128

[dizzyfish]

Dark and pouring buckets here in Pasco until just a couple of minutes ago. Now it's a weird bright and lighter rain. Couple of good gusts with that rain too.
We are 3 miles as the crow flies from the Gulf.

[NDG]

Saved radar loop.
The strongest winds so far I have seen along the west coast of FL are in the 40-55 mph range.

[NDG]

Despite low tides happening right now there's still pretty good storm surge going on.
This is Lido Key by Sarasota.

 https://twitter.com/BrooksWeather/status/1326605954260021255

[ronjon]

Center seems to be tightening up the last hour or so. More convective bands forming on ETAs north and east side. Not sure the weakening trend is continuing. In Hernando Beach, heavy squalls now. Just picked up an inch the last hour. Winds blowing offshore still. No tidal issues yet.

[jlauderdal]

SEFL back in it...looks like that feeder band is going to make it across and get some extra juice from surface heating....not good for the folks in the western suburbs as they are still flooded and will remain flooded until the overall everglades height comes down a bit

Mesoscale Discussion 1791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Areas affected...southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111914Z - 112015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado are possible this afternoon over the southern Florida
Peninsula. Overall threat does not appear to warrant an additional
WW, but WW 507 can be locally extended a few counties if needed.

DISCUSSION...As of early afternoon, convection within one of the
outer bands of hurricane Eta has undergone some strengthening,
primarily from the western FL Keys northeastward into the
southwestern portion of the FL Peninsula. Visible satellite imagery
shows several cloud breaks, and surface temperatures have risen to
the mid 80s F contributing to destabilization of the moist boundary
layer. Latest objective analysis show MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg in
this region. However, tendency has been for low-level winds to
slowly veer as the center of ETA continues northward. This has
resulted in a modest reduction in size of 0-1 km hodographs. The 18Z
RAOB from Miami indicates 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 170
m2/s2, down from 220+ m2/s2 on the 12Z RAOB. This parameter space
remains adequate for a few stronger storms capable of producing
locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

[GCANE]

Coming back on IR.
Recon indicates pressure holding steady at 990mb.
Surface wind at 58 knots.

[Cat5James]

SEFL back in it...looks like that feeder band is going to make it across and get some extra juice from surface heating....not good for the folks in the western suburbs as they are still flooded and will remain flooded until the overall everglades height comes down a bit

Mesoscale Discussion 1791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Areas affected...southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111914Z - 112015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado are possible this afternoon over the southern Florida
Peninsula. Overall threat does not appear to warrant an additional
WW, but WW 507 can be locally extended a few counties if needed.

DISCUSSION...As of early afternoon, convection within one of the
outer bands of hurricane Eta has undergone some strengthening,
primarily from the western FL Keys northeastward into the
southwestern portion of the FL Peninsula. Visible satellite imagery
shows several cloud breaks, and surface temperatures have risen to
the mid 80s F contributing to destabilization of the moist boundary
layer. Latest objective analysis show MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg in
this region. However, tendency has been for low-level winds to
slowly veer as the center of ETA continues northward. This has
resulted in a modest reduction in size of 0-1 km hodographs. The 18Z
RAOB from Miami indicates 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 170
m2/s2, down from 220+ m2/s2 on the 12Z RAOB. This parameter space
remains adequate for a few stronger storms capable of producing
locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

Watching radar closely from NW Broward

[nativefloridian]

SEFL back in it...looks like that feeder band is going to make it across and get some extra juice from surface heating....not good for the folks in the western suburbs as they are still flooded and will remain flooded until the overall everglades height comes down a bit

Mesoscale Discussion 1791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Areas affected...southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111914Z - 112015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado are possible this afternoon over the southern Florida
Peninsula. Overall threat does not appear to warrant an additional
WW, but WW 507 can be locally extended a few counties if needed.

DISCUSSION...As of early afternoon, convection within one of the
outer bands of hurricane Eta has undergone some strengthening,
primarily from the western FL Keys northeastward into the
southwestern portion of the FL Peninsula. Visible satellite imagery
shows several cloud breaks, and surface temperatures have risen to
the mid 80s F contributing to destabilization of the moist boundary
layer. Latest objective analysis show MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg in
this region. However, tendency has been for low-level winds to
slowly veer as the center of ETA continues northward. This has
resulted in a modest reduction in size of 0-1 km hodographs. The 18Z
RAOB from Miami indicates 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 170
m2/s2, down from 220+ m2/s2 on the 12Z RAOB. This parameter space
remains adequate for a few stronger storms capable of producing
locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

Oh Eta....no more rain please. There's so much standing water around here in south broward that several cities, including where i live, are being asked to reduce water usage (toilets, tubs, faucets, etc) because the storm drains are clogged and the wastewater plant is backed up. They also closed about 20 schools due to the flooding. Can't imagine what will/would happen if/when we're ever hit with a slow moving, major storm. This is ridiculous!

[caneman]

Looks to me like whatever is left of the eye wall will come onshore in Clearwater? Thoughts?

[ElectricStorm]

Convection coming back on IR. We've seen how quickly Eta can fluctuate in intensity over the past day. If it can hold that convection until overnight DMAX, I could see it trying to make another run at Cat 1 status.

[dizzyfish]

Looks to me like whatever is left of the eye wall will come onshore in Clearwater? Thoughts?

I was just watching channel 10 and they show us (Pasco) getting the eastern eyewall somewhere between 10 and midnight. Not my happy place for sure.

[Nimbus]

Looks to me like whatever is left of the eye wall will come onshore in Clearwater? Thoughts?

Clearwater beach will be exposed to the winds from the southwest after the storm passes, lots of gusts at this buoy will be from the sw.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42013

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EST

[jlauderdal]

SEFL back in it...looks like that feeder band is going to make it across and get some extra juice from surface heating....not good for the folks in the western suburbs as they are still flooded and will remain flooded until the overall everglades height comes down a bit

Mesoscale Discussion 1791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Areas affected...southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111914Z - 112015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado are possible this afternoon over the southern Florida
Peninsula. Overall threat does not appear to warrant an additional
WW, but WW 507 can be locally extended a few counties if needed.

DISCUSSION...As of early afternoon, convection within one of the
outer bands of hurricane Eta has undergone some strengthening,
primarily from the western FL Keys northeastward into the
southwestern portion of the FL Peninsula. Visible satellite imagery
shows several cloud breaks, and surface temperatures have risen to
the mid 80s F contributing to destabilization of the moist boundary
layer. Latest objective analysis show MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg in
this region. However, tendency has been for low-level winds to
slowly veer as the center of ETA continues northward. This has
resulted in a modest reduction in size of 0-1 km hodographs. The 18Z
RAOB from Miami indicates 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 170
m2/s2, down from 220+ m2/s2 on the 12Z RAOB. This parameter space
remains adequate for a few stronger storms capable of producing
locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

Oh Eta....no more rain please. There's so much standing water around here in south broward that several cities, including where i live, are being asked to reduce water usage (toilets, tubs, faucets, etc) because the storm drains are clogged and the wastewater plant is backed up. They also closed about 20 schools due to the flooding. Can't imagine what will/would happen if/when we're ever hit with a slow moving, major storm. This is ridiculous!

sadly the water doesn't really have any place to go until the level of the glades comes down a bit....we are fine on the east side but its a different story west..this si a south to north band coming through so training is a defintee

[ocala]

Looks like it's still moving NNE. Looks like the 1PM track around Crystal River Cedar Key is still on. We'll know in just a bit with the next update.

[Iceresistance]

Eta:
70 mph
990 MB


EDIT: Oops, I was thinking on the convective structure of Theta, my bad!

[Kazmit]

Theta:
70 mph
990 MB

*Eta

[Iceresistance]

Theta:
70 mph
990 MB

*Eta

I was just about to fix into Eta when you got me!

That reason why I said 'Theta' is because I was thinking about the convective shape of Theta.

[CronkPSU]

getting a helluva squall in East Orlando right now...high winds and lots of thunder and lightning