Global model runs discussion

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tolakram
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4421 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:02 pm

Both Euro and GFS develop something small near the Bahamas at 96 hours and the GFS maintains something weak till the end of the run.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4422 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:04 pm

GFS shear forecast at 96 hours.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4423 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:02 pm

Same as GFS, the 12z Euro at 96 hours continues to show the weak low north of Hispanola.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4424 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:54 pm

18z GFS has that Bahamian low moving to close for comfort, and has a TC in the central Caribbean in the long range.
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#4425 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:09 pm

12z GFS cranking up a TC in the western Carib. around 300 hours. I think I detect a slight Northward jog by last frame....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4426 Postby boca » Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:42 pm

Its in fantasyland put lets see if the 18z or the 00GFS still has it.If it gets to 180hrs or less then I'll check it more frequently.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4427 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:47 pm

There is a thread for the topic about what GFS is showing in Caribbean so the model runs can be posted there.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113847&p=2278826#p2278826
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4428 Postby blp » Sun Oct 07, 2012 5:59 pm

18z GFS going crazy with late season development. Has our E. Atlantic wave in the W. Carribean and two other systems. Looks to be due to the strong MJO pulse coming in a week.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4429 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:16 am

00z ECMWF tries to develop something in the Caribbean.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4430 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:00 pm

Looking at alot of the models. I think what's showing up in the Carribean is left over Patty. :?:

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... atestrun=1
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4431 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:45 pm

18z GFS develops a cyclone in 276 hours and moves it ENE.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4432 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:48 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:18z GFS develops a cyclone in 276 hours and moves it ENE.


And at end of the run this is what happens. Of course being long range, consistency is the word in order.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4433 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:04 am

The system the GFS develops starts out as a low pressure North of Panama on the 25th. While this is still long range, the GFS has been quite good at the 10 day mark and in as we have seen several times before.It will be interesting to see if the model persists with this feature. We have to give props to this model as it has been the stellar one all season long with rare exceptions. IMO,the ECMWF has not been as good as in past years.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4434 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Oct 14, 2012 2:17 pm

12z GFS develops a TC and moves it NNE. 12z ECWMF has a broad low towards the end of the run.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4435 Postby KUEFC » Sun Oct 14, 2012 3:22 pm

GFS seems to be backing off on intensity, and euro doesn't do anything with the low pressure, guess its a wait and see.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4436 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Oct 14, 2012 6:11 pm

Just WOW at that 18z GFS run. :double:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4437 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 6:17 pm

Well,this may be a not so happy halloween for many if it pans out.

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#4438 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:03 pm

Here is another look at the GFS long-range 348 hours from now on Oct. 29th (first image). The low shows up at 240 hours on Oct. 24th in the SW Caribbean (second image):

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:16 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4439 Postby weatherwindow » Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:08 pm

Luis, while that track is unusual, it has a rough precedent...Hurricane King Oct 14-19 1950..Happy Halloween for the Keys..oops thats me:)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#4440 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:27 pm

weatherwindow wrote:Luis, while that track is unusual, it has a rough precedent...Hurricane King Oct 14-19 1950..Happy Halloween for the Keys..oops thats me:)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


That is a very interesting comparison.

Note=A thread has been made for the Western Caribbean area that GFS shows development. The members can post the runs there instead on doing so here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113958&hilit=&p=2280387#p2280387
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