ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

Odd to see the first appearance of an eye corresponding with warming cloud tops, outflow boundaries, and an overall much more ragged satellite appearance. EWRC?

[Sanibel]

After looking at the WV loop, I just don't see the 10-20 KTS of shear over the hurricane. Looks to me that an upper high is established over the hurricane. So, I'm sticking with my thoughts that Irene will continue to intensify, especially so once Irene clears Haiti.....MGC

Agree. 980-978 can't be losing strength.

[mutley]

****CURRENT**** Steering

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

In those steering layer maps, where they show regions of higher pressure, what is the meaning between less lines farther apart, and more lines closer together? Anyone?

[tolakram]

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

It will be pulling dry air off of Hispaniola a while longer so there will be short fluctuations but nothing long lasting IMO. If recon sees a pressure rise then we will know, but so far this is still a slowly strengthening system.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFloridawx]

The weakness is very clearly there...

[UpTheCreek]

This was from MONDAY!!! Seeing that Cat 4 purple gave it away, not present at today's 11.

here is the 11 PM track...looks about on track to me...not that big a difference

[cheezyWXguy]

Odd to see the first appearance of an eye corresponding with warming cloud tops, outflow boundaries, and an overall much more ragged satellite appearance. EWRC?

Well it would have to have an eye in the first place to go through an EWRC. Its just getting one now so that cant be the case. Its more than likely responding to the close proximity to land and whatever shear is over it isnt helping. When this thing finally starts to pull away i wouldnt be surprised to see its appearance improve

[Sanibel]

In those steering layer maps, where they show regions of higher pressure, what is the meaning between less lines farther apart, and more lines closer together? Anyone?

Closer lines means higher "gradient". Think of a higher gradient as being a steeper hillside with the 'height' of the high pressure dome being the mountain top.

[cheezyWXguy]

This was from MONDAY!!! Seeing that Cat 4 purple gave it away, not present at today's 11.

here is the 11 PM track...looks about on track to me...not that big a difference

He wrote 11PM on it, it was on purpose, that was to compare last nights track to todays track.

[eastcoastFL]

it appears to be moving just n of due west away from the last forecast point.

[mutley]

In those steering layer maps, where they show regions of higher pressure, what is the meaning between less lines farther apart, and more lines closer together? Anyone?

Closer lines means higher "gradient". Think of a higher gradient as being a steeper hillside with the 'height' of the high pressure dome being the mountain top.

Thank you. That makes perfect sense.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 231709
AF302 0809A IRENE HDOB 26 20110823
165900 2110N 07043W 6915 03143 //// +077 //// 122047 050 054 006 01
165930 2109N 07045W 6902 03156 //// +071 //// 121053 060 056 016 01
170000 2108N 07046W 6920 03130 //// +072 //// 120052 056 058 020 01
170030 2106N 07047W 6929 03115 //// +066 //// 122053 054 060 021 01
170100 2105N 07048W 6909 03138 //// +075 //// 140054 060 059 019 01
170130 2104N 07049W 6906 03137 //// +080 //// 139055 057 056 012 01
170200 2102N 07050W 6919 03117 //// +078 //// 142056 059 052 014 01
170230 2101N 07051W 6921 03115 //// +082 //// 138053 054 054 012 01
170300 2100N 07052W 6913 03119 //// +087 //// 133051 053 057 008 01
170330 2058N 07053W 6913 03115 9921 +096 //// 127050 050 057 006 01
170400 2057N 07054W 6916 03104 9904 +105 +101 125054 056 058 006 00
170430 2055N 07055W 6915 03098 9895 +105 +097 122056 057 059 007 00
170500 2054N 07056W 6912 03093 9904 +085 //// 120055 057 062 012 01
170530 2052N 07057W 6904 03092 //// +077 //// 129063 064 065 015 01
170600 2051N 07058W 6913 03073 //// +085 //// 132062 063 066 014 01
170630 2049N 07059W 6916 03062 9844 +100 //// 134063 065 067 010 01
170700 2048N 07100W 6914 03050 9838 +102 //// 132064 065 068 010 01
170730 2047N 07101W 6918 03033 //// +103 //// 134056 058 066 009 01
170800 2045N 07102W 6915 03027 9798 +119 //// 134051 054 062 004 01
170830 2044N 07103W 6918 03013 9777 +127 +122 137042 044 055 001 03
$$

[GCANE]

CIMSS is currently showing 12knts shear.



09L
HURRICANE 09L 12:00UTC 23August2011
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 20:30:04 N
Longitude : 70:31:29 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 973.5 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 913.3 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 60.2 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 6.2 m/s
Direction : 257.5 deg

[UpTheCreek]

He wrote 11PM on it, it was on purpose, that was to compare last nights track to todays track.

Oops, thanks and sorry 'bout dat!

[bexar]

latest visible shows that Irene is looking a bit more ragged. I think the shear is taking it's toll


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

To Aric's credit, Grand Bahama Island is less than 70 miles away from WPB.

Not a big deal but the 12z position is much farther E than 70 miles, like @100 miles. Not much different than previous runs.

[Solaris]

The ragged appearance basically comes from the proximity to Hispanolia. Southerly inflow via the mountains ---> downslope dry wind .....!
Wait til it moves forward...it will strengthen more rapidly

[GCANE]

Core has gotten warmer now at 3C.

But, that pesky boundary-layer inversion is back.

That'll keep a lid on convection until it goes away.

[ozonepete]

In those steering layer maps, where they show regions of higher pressure, what is the meaning between less lines farther apart, and more lines closer together? Anyone?

Closer lines means higher "gradient". Think of a higher gradient as being a steeper hillside with the 'height' of the high pressure dome being the mountain top.

Also, where lines are close together the flow is stronger. Farther apart means weaker winds thus weaker steering.

[Texashawk]

It sure seems like she's been moving due west the last 5 hours. Seems a little long for just a wobble. I know the VDMs show about a 285-290 motion but the overall circulation seems to be moving just about due west.