Texas Winter 2018-2019

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That’s just a cruel thing to bring up and rub in our face Harris

And I agree with spencer. All winter it’s always been 2 weeks away and zilch. I’ve been seeing flashbacks of last year when we were hitting 80 by mid February. Believe we’re well on our way to seeing another early brutal summer.

wxman57 has officially broken me. Bring on Spring. I just hope it's a real Spring and not an 85 degree "Spring".

He never broke me but I guess because I gave up weeks ago. I have been listening and paying attention to his reasoning and realistic logic of not buying into the ridiculous scenarios the models keep showing 2 weeks out only to never verify.

[Ntxw]

Welcome Arctic Thunder! As portastorm noted, we are so very fortunate to have meteorologists participate on storm2k.


Humble suggestion for your avatar.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/christmasspecials/images/8/86/SnowMiser.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20120422063431

We are very fortunate and blessed we have mets like wxman57, South Texas Storms, hriverajr, and now Arctic Thunder. There are more I'm sure that I am missing but message is same. Thank you for sharing your time with us and expertise that other avenues generally have to pay for!

Welcome to our newest resident cold miser . We need to breach this northern wall the Dark Lord of Summer keeps fortifying.

I wonder how you're not a professional met! You give some of the best insight I've heard on here! Keep up the great posts!

Thank you for the kind words, I've been wrong more times than I can count! Eternal cold mongering optimist bias a bit.

As for next week we'll probably need to watch the strength of the HP coming down on the backside. While the lobe of cold likely centers in the Lakes with cyclogenesis/TPV, we can sometimes see a bit (or a lot) colder than what guidance offers, even for glancing blows if the surface cold is strong we may get very good radiational cooling.

Might even be some lift with the initial front. Cold beats lift and maybe some frontal snow? Best shot in far Northeast and East Texas but you never know.

[Haris]

God bless all of you and welcome Arctic Thunder !

[Haris]

25F this morning. Globals are too warm in clear nights in winter after a front

[Snowflake7]

Welcome Arctic Thunder!! We look forward to your thoughts and knowledge here on Storm2K!! Glad to have you aboard!

[wxman57]

You should all be thankful that I was able to complete my wall all the way from the Continental Divide to central N. Dakota. Now THIS is Arctic air heading down toward the Great Lakes and Midwest next week. The Canadian model is the coldest, indicating all-time record cold for many locations. Highs on some days around -20F.

[Yukon Cornelius]

You should all be thankful that I was able to complete my wall all the way from the Continental Divide to central N. Dakota. Now THIS is Arctic air heading down toward the Great Lakes and Midwest next week. The Canadian model is the coldest, indicating all-time record cold for many locations. Highs on some days around -20F.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019012412/gem_T2m_eus_33.png

I’ll take 10-15F all day long.

[Texas Snow]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019012412/gem_T2m_eus_33.png

Is that an Ozark Shadow in NE Texas on that map? We need to rent a bulldozer.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am struggling to find much support for snow Tuesday night. Most models are too warm and dry. I know they have a tendency to be both but there is almost zero support in the models. I think we will likely be cold enough after midnight though E TX frontal temps can be slower to fall than areas E and W of us with the mountains to our NE. Moisture is a bigger concern as there appears to be very little since there is not a STJ connection like there was a couple days ago. This looks to be just frontal with not much if any digging into the SW. Recently the PNA has spiked and looks to stay high for a while. The current TPV lobe is rotating out only to be replaced by a a stronger and further south one. We will get the edge of it primarily in the form of cold mornings and dry mild days.

(edited by wxman57 to change "Monday night" to "Tuesday night")

[Ralph's Weather]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019012412/gem_T2m_eus_33.png

Is that an Ozark Shadow in NE Texas on that map? We need to rent a bulldozer.

Yep, cold sitting to our NE will always struggle to reach us.

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing much of a shot of any significant (i.e., meaning accumulations) of any frozen precip next Tuesday night in NE or SE TX. Probably less of an event than we saw yesterday, as moisture will be more limited.

[weatherdude1108]

Welcome Arctic Thunder! So blessed to have an additional pro met added to the already great expertise here on this forum. I get my weather info. more through S2K than any other weather outlet. People post things on here, sometimes before I see it officially on the NWS site, days later. It also helps to have people from the NWS on here. Nice to have you, sir!

[hriverajr]

As I stated before... An eastern based cold pattern like this is very stable. You basically need a wholesale pattern change to give us a better chance. We are running out of time. Also Pressure watch.. Highest pressure I could find in Canada is 1032. I'm sorry that just won't cut it. Also we have had little in the way of northern mexico upper lows. Models are not changing their tune either. Not good Not good.

[Agua]

If weather worked like equity markets, this would be the point where winter weather comes in fierce and fast - complete buyer capitulation has occurred.

[dhweather]

Glancing blows again?


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1088476033802780673

[orangeblood]

As I stated before... An eastern based cold pattern like this is very stable. You basically need a wholesale pattern change to give us a better chance. We are running out of time. Also Pressure watch.. Highest pressure I could find in Canada is 1032. I'm sorry that just won't cut it. Also we have had little in the way of northern mexico upper lows. Models are not changing their tune either. Not good Not good.

Winter isn't over yet...EURO Ensembles are starting to look very interesting as we move through Feb.. Siberia is getting really cold/hints of cross-polar flow setting up/Western Canada cold air build/EPO tank and Greenland Block - what's not to like ???!!

[orangeblood]

If weather worked like equity markets, this would be the point where winter weather comes in fierce and fast - complete buyer capitulation has occurred.

hahaha spot on, this is about the time when defeated Winter Weather lovers eat crow!!!

[hriverajr]

As I stated before... An eastern based cold pattern like this is very stable. You basically need a wholesale pattern change to give us a better chance. We are running out of time. Also Pressure watch.. Highest pressure I could find in Canada is 1032. I'm sorry that just won't cut it. Also we have had little in the way of northern mexico upper lows. Models are not changing their tune either. Not good Not good.

Winter isn't over yet...EURO Ensembles are starting to look very interesting as we move through Feb.. Siberia is getting really cold/hints of cross-polar flow setting up/Western Canada cold air build/EPO tank and Greenland Block - what's not to like ???!!

Hints... the chances for my location getting winter weather cuts off earlier than others.

[Brent]

If weather worked like equity markets, this would be the point where winter weather comes in fierce and fast - complete buyer capitulation has occurred.

hahaha spot on, this is about the time when defeated Winter Weather lovers eat crow!!!

I'd love to eat crow but we'll see if we can get more than a dumb tease but maybe February will finally do something, it hasnt the past 3 years

I will say like others did that the globals have been too warm though, the 6z GFS had a low of 39 in Dallas this morning when it was already below freezing with the actual low 29

[Lagreeneyes03]

As I stated before... An eastern based cold pattern like this is very stable. You basically need a wholesale pattern change to give us a better chance. We are running out of time. Also Pressure watch.. Highest pressure I could find in Canada is 1032. I'm sorry that just won't cut it. Also we have had little in the way of northern mexico upper lows. Models are not changing their tune either. Not good Not good.

Winter isn't over yet...EURO Ensembles are starting to look very interesting as we move through Feb.. Siberia is getting really cold/hints of cross-polar flow setting up/Western Canada cold air build/EPO tank and Greenland Block - what's not to like ???!!

Meh..same old song..."looking good 10 days out..." etc. If we do get cold it will be too dry for any fun.